The Survivor Guy, Week 6: What Todd Proposes, Denise's Stomach Disposes

[Leo]

There are many words one could use to describe this week. Boring would not be one of them. Todd was right at the center of everything, and that's not a surprise to us here. However, did all his plotting and conspiring work out? Let's see.

The Survivor gods are displeased: Before we get to that let's look at our tribe of lovable pathetic losers, Zhan Hu. Was it just us who appreciated the fact that everyone involved in the throw-the-challenge plot from last week was wallowing in the misery that was their camp?

It's a good thing the merge is next week, because otherwise everyone here would have been seriously screwed. As it is, the long-term prospects for all three are bleak. Peih-Gee and Jaime will be tainted with the label of being sneaky, and as such will have a hard time making any real alliances. Erik is regarded as one of the top physical threats after James, and may well be the first target if he can't win individual immunity.

Call it payback of the foremost kind from the Survivor gods.

Hiding in plain sight. Literally.: One big thing drove the action at Fei Long this week: Todd finding the immunity idol. It solidified his own alliances, and led to the (failed) plan for Zhan Hu to throw the challenge again.

It's hard to underestimate how vital the immunity idol is to post-merge play. Ideally, you'd like to save it until after the merge, but Todd did the right thing giving the idol - and the information to get the second one - to James. He needed a core alliance member to replace Aaron, and James was a perfect fit. In addition, James is not the type of player who is likely to stick the proverbial knife in Todd's back, so saving him made a great deal of sense.

However, the process of getting the idol itself was uninspired. Amanda standing right there poking it with a stick... ridiculous. Did no one even think to make sure that Frosti and Sherea were distracted? Or, for that matter, why not try before everyone had woken up? There are many scenarios we can imagine that made more sense. The way things are right now, everyone on Fei Long can be assumed to know about the idol - and based on the preview for next week, the same can be said for Zhan Hu. It limits how you can use the idol strategically. Granted, it's rather hard to find a way for the idol to stay secret, but that's no reason to make things so obvious.

This brings us to what, on the surface, looks like a mistake. Why did they keep Frosti over Sherea? He's a physical threat as well, he knew about the hidden idol, and he had no allies whatsoever on Fei Long? Why keep him - in fact, why did it seem he was never even considered for the boot? One might even say it's a case of tunnel vision - Todd was so concentrated on Sherea and Jean-Robert that he forgot about the bigger picture.

However, there is one scenario that makes all this sensible. What if Todd has been able to get Frosti into an alliance with him? It makes sense - Todd had to put some trust in Frosti because he knew about the idol as well, but it wouldn't be much of a stretch to realize that Frosti makes a better ally than, say, Courtney. Look at it this way: one of the most important things to control after the merge is who gets immunity. Which foursome would you think have better chances of having the winner come out of them: Todd, Amanda, James, and Courtney, or Todd, Amanda, James, and Frosti? While a full-fledged alliance may not be in the cards, a side-deal is quite likely in the books here.

A related development here is Courtney. Who knew she felt like such an outsider? One would have thought that she would feel reasonably secure given her links to Todd, but apparently her bond with fellow slacker and Jean-Robert Fan Club member Sherea was pretty strong. We've said it before, but we'll say it again: how lucky is Courtney that she wasn't on a losing tribe? She's made it to the merge, and now her weakness actually works for her. She's no immunity threat, and she's no strategic genius as well. She may not be that likable, but that matters little now. We would not be surprised if she actually got very far in the game - final four is our guess.

One thing is for sure: with Todd having both immunity idols in his control, it'll make for interesting strategy. We're not sure if it will result in new and interesting strategies in how to use the it, but we're hopeful.

And now things get really interesting: In many ways, the past few weeks is little more than spring training for the real game - post-merge play.

Conventional wisdom would have it that we're in for a Pagonging of the original Zhan Hu members. However, what this ignores is that we have a Fei Long that is far from unified. The one thing Todd has failed to do is to unify Fei Long in any meaningful way. Sure, the original members may hold for one council, but we can't see it holding for much longer. This brings us to the next question: what is the power structure in any new tribe?

Off the cuff, you have two strong three-person alliances: the "core" Zhan Hu alliance (Erik, Peih-Gee, and Jaime) and it's Fei Long counterpart (Todd, Amanda, and James). Denise probably has a deal of her own with James, which means she can be counted upon as a reliable pawn. That leaves three potential floaters: Courtney, Jean-Robert, and Frosti.

The one whose play we want to see the most is Jean-Robert. We'll give him some credit, he is at least thinking about the game with some level of sophistication, even if his early strategy was stupid. However, his big problem is that he doesn't have any natural allies. Perversely, what this means is that his best hope of survival is to become a swing vote - but that's not the easiest thing to do in the world. Jean-Robert will have to walk the tightrope of being seen as useful for his vote, and being ditched for being a plotter and a willing knife-stabber. It should be interesting to watch, but making any predictions for the very first post-merge tribal council is dicey at best, so we won't do that.

Courtney really is a wildcard. From the preview, we know she was not terribly happy with this week's outcome. However, her options are just as limited as Jean-Robert - just who does she approach as a potential ally? What's more likely is she'll try to act as a swing vote playing off both sides, or try and see where the coming target is. She is, however, just as likely to go berserk over some perceived insult. Who knows what goes through that brain of hers?

A legend in her own mind: Rarely have we seen exit speeches more, well, deluded than Sherea's. She was strong at challenges? What challenge would that involve - sleeping around camp? She is clearly out of her mind.

There's no mistake that the switch did hurt her chances, but what made things even more difficult was she completely failed to integrate with her new tribe in any way. Jean-Robert was there, you idiot! Had she not been such an unpleasant person to be around with - and that is exactly the impression we got from her - she would not have been sent home. It's that simple. Good riddance.

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[Google]

 

[Snitch]

excellent analysis.

[roseskid]

Very interesting evaluation, Leo.

However, the process of getting the idol itself was uninspired. Amanda standing right there poking it with a stick... ridiculous. Did no one even think to make sure that Frosti and Sherea were distracted? Or, for that matter, why not try before everyone had woken up? There are many scenarios we can imagine that made more sense. The way things are right now, everyone on Fei Long can be assumed to know about the idol - and based on the preview for next week, the same can be said for Zhan Hu. It limits how you can use the idol strategically. Granted, it's rather hard to find a way for the idol to stay secret, but that's no reason to make things so obvious.

I agree about how Laurel and Hardy-ish getting the idol was. D'oh.

...how lucky is Courtney that she wasn't on a losing tribe? She's made it to the merge, and now her weakness actually works for her. She's no immunity threat, and she's no strategic genius as well. She may not be that likable, but that matters little now. We would not be surprised if she actually got very far in the game - final four is our guess.

I hadn't thought about this, but you make a good point about Courtney. She'd be a good one to keep around since she has zero strength and will be sure to lose every challenge. Of course this assumes her lack of eating won't kill her before the season ends.

[Brooks]

Thanks, Leo!

Courtney really is a wildcard. From the preview, we know she was not terribly happy with this week's outcome. However, her options are just as limited as Jean-Robert - just who does she approach as a potential ally? What's more likely is she'll try to act as a swing vote playing off both sides, or try and see where the coming target is. She is, however, just as likely to go berserk over some perceived insult. Who knows what goes through that brain of hers?

From a strategy standpoint, what puzzled me last week was Todd big showing of support for Courtney at TC. It may have had a positive impact on Courtney, but I didn't think it would have been well received by the other players. Unless his alliance understood what he was trying to accomplish. I know we just see a glimmer of what happens at TC, but I thought Todd took an unnecessary chance with that speech.