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Thread: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

  1. #1
    Cy Young 2010 Mariner's Avatar
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    Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

    Every week, our panel of elite Survivor analysts will gather to discuss the goings-on in Micronesia. Who's dealing? Who's reeling? What does our panel think of these weighty questions? Read on to find out.

    1. Was it smart of Eliza to use the fake idol tonight just to call Ozzy out? What ramifications, if any will there be for Ozzy?

    Mariner: She really didn't have anything to lose so why not? I think her move demonstrated why Ozzy won't win. She seemed to resent him and went right after him when she knew she was in danger. As far as ramifications? The previews for next week let us know that Cirie is going after Ozzy to get rid of the idol. That will eliminate his safety net.

    Iguanachocolate: I agree with Mariner - she knew she was going to leave unless a miracle happened and the immunity idol could have been that miracle. The ramifications for Ozzy, besides making him an even bigger target, could be that he also gets targeted for a surprise elimination, like James of China. I think this Survivor was filmed either before or during the airing of the China season, so Ozzy may not have known how James got to bring home two souvenir hidden immunity idols.

    AJane: It doesn't affect Eliza in the least, but for sure it gives Cirie the motivation to convince as many others as possible to send Ozzy packing next.

    burntbrat: Eliza knew it wasn't the real thing, she just wanted to out Ozzy to let the rest of them know that they made a big mistake. Ozzy already has an enormous target on his back but this tribal council made it all more visible. I think he's going to have to push for Cirie's elimination or he's going to become her next victim.

    MsFroggy: She had little to lose and definitely had enough malice in her to do it, so I wasn't surprised. Ozzy lost a big advantage, but he might have lost it anyway. Parvati knew about the idol and she now has a side alliance and it was just a matter of time before she would have told them about the idol. It will be that much harder for Ozzy now to win immunity from now on.

    Yardgnome: I agree with everyone, she really didn't have anything to lose by attempting to use it. It was smart of her to call out Ozzy and saying he has the idol. Once again, she had nothing to lose, she knew she was a goner.

    waywyrd: Even if she was 99% sure that the "idol" was just a stick with a face, she had to try it. She knew she was on the outs with everyone. I don't see why she bothered tattling on Ozzy, unless she was just being vindictive. Outing him didn't help her one bit - she still got shuffled off to Loser Lodge.

    2. Will Amanda's jealousy of Alexis help or hinder her overall game play?

    Mariner: I'm not sure but I think it may make Amanda sharper. She has kind of been gliding along this season enjoying her status as a Favorite.

    Iguanachocolate: I disagree respectfully with Mariner, I think it will hinder Amanda's game play. No matter what she says, she allowed herself to get romantically involved with a fellow player, as evidenced by her jealousy of Alexis, her immediate targeting of her, and her protest (to the camera's at least) of Parvati's rather good plan of multiple alliances. I believe Amanda will exchange long term goals for short term goals.

    AJane: What has and will continue to hinder Amanda is the relationship she started with Ozzy, period. It wasn't a good idea to hook up with him in the first place, and resentment and jealousy isn't going to get her any further.

    burntbrat: I'd be mad too! Why is he hugging on some other woman and getting all chatty? What happened to our romantic nights beneath the fronds?? Amanda hasn't been strong in the strategy department this season (like Mariner said) so I can't see that her jealousy is going to make any difference in her game play. She follows Ozzy's lead.

    MsFroggy: Hooking up with Ozzy was a mistake and bad for both of them in the game. Her jealousy already drove her to target Alexis and if she can't get it together she'll find herself on the wrong end of a Tribal Council vote.

    Yardgnome: I think it's going to hurt her. She's going to become one tracked on getting her out and start missing what's going on around her.

    waywyrd: I'm thinking that editing played it up to be much more than it really is. If the green-eyed monster has bitten Amanda in the butt, hopefully it will perk her up a bit and get her back into the game.

    3. Will the fact that Jason won immunity in a challenge that favored Ozzy make him a target for Ozzy?

    Mariner: I think he was already a target for Ozzy along with the rest of the remaining men. I do think his win may have moved him up the hit list.

    Iguanachocolate: It definitely ups the anti for Jason eviction in Ozzy's eyes.

    AJane: I agree with Mariner that Jason was already a target. If Ozzy has James & Erik, he doesn't need Jason for anything.

    burntbrat: I feel bad for Jason because he's so darn clueless and lovable. I love that he was so proud of himself for beating Ozzy in a challenge, and I hope that sustains him because now Ozzy has something to prove and it's going to get rough.

    MsFroggy: Ozzy should be looking at everyone as a target. They're certainly all thinking of getting him out - maybe even Amanda - and he just can't relax. Poor Ozzy, he's like a human dartboard.

    Yardgnome: I also agree that Jason was a target. He has no alliance so he pretty much is going to be leaving soon.

    waywyrd: Oh, yeah. Jason is gloating and Ozzy took a little ego hit, losing a challenge he should have had in the bag.

    4. Even if Jason's immunity win won't make him a target for Ozzy will his vote for Ozzy come back to haunt him?

    Mariner: Yes. That second vote for Ozzy is going to make him intent on sniffing out who cast it. I'm expecting him to go all Lex on everyone else. Remember his reaction when T-Bird cast that vote against Lex?

    Iguanachocolate: Absolutely. Ozzy Will figure it out in about 2 seconds that Jason gave the fake idol to Eliza and from there make the short leap to who cast the other vote. If we remember what happened to poor Ami for even daring to discuss Ozzy's departure from the game with the Fans, it will be no surprise to keep hearing Jason's name as a target from Ozzy's mouth.

    AJane: Oh, yeah. Ozzy went crazy when he heard Ami was plotting against him, and he liked Ami. Jason is on Ozzy's hit list for sure.

    burntbrat: I don't think it matters. Jason said that nobody said two words to him after the immunity challenge. They all have their alliances and don't need him. He's toast unless he can go on a challenge streak.

    MsFroggy: I'd like to see Ozzy maintain a cool head and surgically eliminate Jason at the first opportunity. No sense in getting all bent out of shape. Jason should learn more about Ami's fate and be very afraid.

    Yardgnome: I'm sure Ozzy will go after him. He took an immunity that should have been his and voted for him all in the same night...although he did play Ozzy's fake immunity idol which was pretty darn funny.

    waywyrd: Definitely. Jason's being a little bold for a guy with no real alliances or friends out there.

    5. Alexis went from a background player to front and center this week. Is this the beginning of her ending story arc or a final three player finally being thrust in the spotlight?

    Mariner: I'm not sure. It could be either. My reaction watching the show was "Who is this?" From the beginning of the episode, she was everywhere including her speech at tribal council about the three elements of the game.

    Iguanachocolate: I am uncertain as well. I think it depends on Amanda and whether she decides to really gun for her or not.

    AJane: I think Alexis is a great bet for F3. It looked to me like everyone knows that Ozzy is jilting Amanda for Alexis. So if Amanda is the only one with an axe to grind with Alexis, she may have trouble convincing people that Alexis needs to go.

    burntbrat: I'm actually quite fond of Alexis after this episode. She was very well spoken at tribal council and she looked clean. I don't see that she's an immediate target so I can only think that they are starting to give her a favorable edit because she'll be one of the final three.

    MsFroggy: I thought she was such a non-entity then she was suddenly everywhere. Her entire raison d'etre right now is to be Ozzy's new puppy. Maybe she and Eric can compare notes on how best to kiss ass. But I agree with burntbrat that this may just be groundwork to show her rise from the ashes and into the F4.

    Yardgnome: To be honest, I still couldn't pick her out of a crowd. It's probably her rise to the finale.

    waywyrd: I'll say that we're finally meeting her because she will make final three. Unless Amanda flings her off a cliff somewhere.

    6. Cirie appears to be lurking in the background and out of immediate danger again. Will she be able to let everyone else pick each other off and make it to the end?

    Mariner: She is definitely safe for the next three or four episodes. Cirie isn't a threat in the individual immunity challenges which keeps her off the radar of the Alpha players.

    Iguanachocolate: Oh, Cirie is safe for a while. She will put wheels into motion and get people talking, but they will never be talking about her. She just isn't a physical threat. The merge is the best thing to happen for her game play style.

    AJane: The attention is on others, so she's in a great position right now. I'll agree she's safe for at least a couple more episodes.

    burntbrat: Cirie is golden unless someone wises up and sees how strong her game is this season. I see Parvati setting her sights on Cirie in the next few weeks. Parvati is playing smart and she can't let Cirie get too much farther.

    MsFroggy: I always want them to open their eyes and see Cirie for the snake she is but so far it hasn't been happening. She sees safe right now and she might make it far unless somebody stops her.

    Yardgnome: Cirie is playing the same game she did before and it worked for her then and it's working for her now. She seems like she doesn't have much to worry about immediately.

    waywyrd: Cirie has it made right now. She's an expert at slinking around behind the scenes, getting the focus on others. And they've all been too dumb to realize it.

    7. Amanda said she was livid with Parvati for making the deal with Alexis and Natalie. Will she get rid of Parvati at the first opportunity or stick with the three of them?

    Mariner: I think she'll get over it and see the wisdom of the deal. Of course, she'll probably also go after Parvati if the four of them make it to the end.

    Iguanachocolate: If she goes after anyone it will be Alexis. I think Amanda views Parvati as a player she can hide behind.

    AJane: Just like mean high-school girls, Parvati & Amanda will tear each other apart eventually. My guess is that Amanda will stick with Natalie, Alexis and Parvati.

    burntbrat: Amanda is with Ozzy. I don't think she'll ever vote against him and will only go along with the girls alliance if it is parallel to her showmance alliance. I think Parvati and Amanda will betray each other before the end of this.

    MsFroggy: If Ozzy keeps paying too much attention to Alexis and ignoring Amanda, that might lead her to see the benefit of the side alliance. However, I don't think Parvati will keep her end of the deal. She will turn on Amanda eventually.

    Yardgnome: Girls can be catty, I know, I am one. She will probably try and seek some revenge or get her to join up then stab her in the back.

    waywyrd: Hopefully she'll calm down and see that Parvati was just trying to align with the girsl to help them make it further in the game, adn not screw Amanda over. They seemed to be bestest friends after the merge...I think Amanda will go after Alexis before she goes after Parvati.

    8. Who do you think is most likely to be voted off next?

    Mariner: Jason. If he doesn't win the next immunity challenge, I think he's toast. He has no allies and he's a cocky SOB. That's not a good combo.

    Iguanachocolate: I agree, unless Jason can pull off another immunity challenge win, he is out of there. He simply has not formed any alliances and alliances are crucial at this stage of the game. The only exception would be if Ozzy were to lose again, then I think the All Girl alliance just might get rid of him because of the potential for the hidden immunity idol being played.

    AJane: What Mariner and iguanachocolate said. He would be gone now if he hadn't won the IC.

    burntbrat: I agree with everyone else. If Jason doesn't win immunity, he's gone. Otherwise I think it's the other fan girl besides Alexis. The one who's had no face time.

    MsFroggy: Jason is the obvious goner but if he wins immunity Eric might get the boot as the next most useless fan. Or maybe Natalie.

    Yardgnome: I can get on the Jason boat. I really have no other ideas so it's a sound one.

    waywyrd: Jason. He'd better keep winning immunity, or hope someone else screws up big time to get the focus off of him.
    "I miss Darva Conger." - Phonegrrrl

  2. #2
    Premium Member
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    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

    Great read and article, props to all of you. Just wondering do you think James has as big a target on his back, seeing he is also a dominant player.

  3. #3
    Red Sox Nation Brooks's Avatar
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    Feb 2004

    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation


    It strikes me that the stupid HII thing that Jeff warned about was creating the fake. Ozzy should have dismantled the hiding place and kept his trap shut about having the idol. If he is voted out in the near future it will be largely because of the fake idol he planted. At least Yauman put some real work into his.

  4. #4
    Cy Young 2010 Mariner's Avatar
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    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

    Quote Originally Posted by paridy;2916042;
    Great read and article, props to all of you. Just wondering do you think James has as big a target on his back, seeing he is also a dominant player.
    I think once Ozzy is gone the target will shift to James. For now, the obsession with Ozzy seems to be keeping the other remaining Survivors from focusing on James.
    "I miss Darva Conger." - Phonegrrrl

  5. #5
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Jul 2003

    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

    "It's just a (bleeping) stick" ought to be the forum subtitle, that's such an "instant classic" moment.

    Great analysis above. I agree with the majority that Amanda is screwed. Ozzie showing himself to be a real dog doesn't matter to anyone but her, and Oz is likely to win every damn Immunity challenge from now on, unless something is really tricked out REALLY far towards puzzle solving or something like that. Yes, even against James. Unless the contest is something like Bat Eating, or Grave Digging, or maybe Weight Lifting.

    I have a sneaking suspicion that between the two "Favorites" in the "Pretty flirty girl" alliance, that Parvati, for all her seeming dumbness in making a side alliance and thus dooming herself in any finale vote, may be sneaky enough to GET further than Amanda, even if she can't win in the end. Really, if these girls were smart though, and they began to realize that Ozzie is just too willing to switch things up to his own advantage, they'd run with Parvati's new group and go the "girl power alliance" route--drawing Cirie in, as unusual as that move seems, because we know Cirie bends with the wind if it serves her. Especially if they have to dump Alexis from that little group, they'd NEED Cirie.

    And it couldn't hurt to ramp up James' awareness of what a threat Ozzie is likely to see him as.

    Erik has made himself Ozzie's dog, his personal piss boy, so that's a hopeless person to draw on and trust in an anti-Oz alliance.

    "You don't rehearse Mr. T, you just turn him loose."
    -----Sylvester Stallone, on Mr. T-----

  6. #6
    what are you watching? iguanachocolate's Avatar
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    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 9: A Sticky Situation

    i actually think james will be off the radar unless he wins an immunity challenge. i think he is viewed as a non-threat because of his hii blunders last season. if he wins an immunity challenge, then they will see him as a physical threat.
    A good book should leave you... slightly exhausted at the end. You live several lives while reading it. ~William Styron, interview, Writers at Work, 1958

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