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Thread: Survivor Roundtable, Week 4: Carving Up the Competition

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    Cy Young 2010 Mariner's Avatar
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    Survivor Roundtable, Week 4: Carving Up the Competition

    Every week, our panel of elite Survivor analysts will gather to discuss the goings-on in Micronesia. Who's dealing? Who's reeling? What does our panel think of these weighty questions? Read on to find out.

    1. Was Ami wise to admit to Cirie that she was the one who voted for her at the last Tribal Council and will Cirie gun for her at the first opportunity?

    AJane: I'm at a loss as to what Ami's strategy could possibly be. Voting for Cirie made no sense. I think that Cirie is probably more interested in going after Jonathan at this point, though.

    MsFroggy: Can't see what good it did. Cirie may set it aside for now but as soon as she has a chance she will try to get Ami out. She went after Yau-Man for way less.

    Dagwood: I think the vote was purely a protest vote towards Cirie. I don't think she should have said anything, though. Let Cirie wonder.

    Leo: It made absolutely no sense whatsoever. If Cirie has any brains, she'll realize there are lots of bigger fish to fry. But she might go after Ami anyway.

    waywyrd: She should have never told Cirie she voted for her. Good thing Cirie is probably more focused on getting Jonathan out.

    Mariner: The only way it was a good move for Ami is if she knew Cirie already knew she voted for her. In that case, it made sense to try to minimize the damage to her relationship with Cirie. Otherwise, I agree with everyone else. Ami may not be Cirie's first target but she is probably her second at this point.

    2. Is there anyway that Jonathan can make it far in the game with so many people not trusting him?

    AJane: He's no more or less worthy of the others' trust than anyone else in the tribe. I don't think he's in a great position right now - Cirie and the showmance alliance may use him as they see fit, and then discard him.

    MsFroggy: It's going to be tough because I don't see anybody really wanting to keep him around longer than he's needed. What I hope is that he'll turn the others against Cirie before he's voted off.

    Dagwood: I don't think he will. They will use his vote as long as they need it then he will be gone.

    Leo: For Jonathan the hard part is going to be making it to the merge. After that, he has a decent chance - people might start thinking he is an excellent person to sit beside come jury time.

    waywyrd: Exactly, Leo - he'd be a great person to go up against at the end since everyone thinks he's such a weasel, but he's going to have to do some major smooth talking to get that far.

    Mariner: I agree with Leo and waywyrd. He's in big trouble before a merge. Depending which tribe he ends up on after the switch (and the previews made it seem like Eliza is on the same tribe), he's going to be the first target if the majority of his new tribe is composed of Favorites.

    3. Will James and Ozzy telling Eliza to her face that they wish they had voted her out come back to haunt them?

    AJane: Probably not, but it's never wise to be that cocky. Just ask Mikey.

    MsFroggy: Ozzy should have known better than to mouth off. Now they won immunity, nobody got voted off from their tribe and Eliza will more than likely get stronger and won't forget what they said. Ozzy already has everyone gunning for him, but while others want him out just on general principle and because he's too good, Eliza will now be motivated by revenge as well.

    Dagwood: Not a good move. Even though they were thinking it, they should keep it to themselves. Don't make her mad and give her a reason to get stronger, let her be weak so it will be easier to get rid of her.

    Leo: Utterly stupid, but this is Eliza we're talking about here. She's not exactly all that influential either. James and Ozzy have other strategic problems, but an annoyed Eliza as well is not that high on the list.

    waywyrd: Not the brightest thing to do, but then again, Eliza isn't exactly high up on the team totem pole. She's as useful as a bump on a log, and I don't think Ozzy and James will suffer any repercussions from it.

    Mariner: I agree with dagwood. It would have been much smarter for them to use their inside voices and keep their thoughts to themselves. Eliza may not be strong but she is smart and quite capable of voting with members of the Fans against either James or Ozzy.

    4. Was sending Kathy to Exile Island again a good strategic move or just cruel?

    AJane: At this point it's good strategy. It would make no sense to send a different person who would be more eager to spend time looking for the idol.

    MsFroggy: Good strategy. She's obviously neither too bright nor too strong. The Faves correctly figured that she'd never find the immunity idol, and she didn't.

    Dagwood: Good strategy, but kinda cruel. It was good to send her, she isn't going to find a thing and Cirie and Ami have probably told them that. I did feel bad for her, she didn't look too thrilled to be going back.

    Leo: Sending Kathy was the only logical thing to do.

    waywyrd: Good strategy. She doesn't even care about finding it anymore, so she's zero threat to get her hands on it.

    Mariner: It was definitely good strategy but I still winced when the camera showed Kathy's face as the Favorites announced their choice. I'm still dumbfounded that she didn't just go stand near the fourth clue and wait for Ozzy to get there.

    5. Is Ozzy in the driver's seat now that he has the hidden immunity idol and will the fake immunity idol fool whoever finds it?

    AJane: He's only in the driver's seat if he uses it wisely. James had two last season and it did him no good at all. I'm going to assume Ozzy will be smarter than James was. The fake idol looked ridiculous to me, but I guess it's going to depend on who finds it. A Fan may be more easily fooled by it than a Favorite.

    MsFroggy: He has to be feeling a bit of relief. I hope he doesn't tell anyone and if he's really lucky the fake idol won't be found for another couple of weeks and even then it will be a Fan who does find it. Otherwise the jig might be up and his tribe will force him to use the idol.

    Dagwood: I don't think so. It is never safe to feel like you are in the power seat in this game. I would love to see the fake immunity idol used. It would make for a great TC.

    Leo: It's just insurance for Ozzy. Now, if the Amanda showmance is a real alliance, the pair of them might be able to use their two votes and the HII for leverage. But that is a long way down the road, and lots can happen before then.

    waywyrd: He's in a good position after finding the idol. If he can't make a run of the individual immunity challenges, he's got backup now. Oh, I do hope someone plays the fake. I didn't get a good look at it before he wrapped it up, but some of these dimbulbs might fall for it.

    Mariner: I agree with everyone else that while the idol is definitely a help to Ozzy it can only get him so far given the size of the target on his back. I think someone will be so desperate to find the hidden immunity idol that they will be fooled by Ozzy's crude carving. In my dreams, Jonathan or Joel will be the one to confidently play it at a tribal council.

    6. Who is playing the best under the radar game at this point?

    AJane: The gal from the Fans - she's so under-the-radar I don't even know her name! - but she cast a vote against Mikey last night. I haven't heard a peep from her, but she seems to be almost completely silent and a nonentity to her own tribemates.

    MsFroggy: Everyone whose name I can't remember. If I can't remember their face either, they're going to the final two. But seriously, I agree with AJane that Tracy was nowhere to be seen before this episode and now suddenly I noticed her and in a big way. Maybe that means that she's no longer under the radar though.

    Dagwood: Tracy, definitely.

    Leo: Alexis from the Fans. Who? Exactly.

    waywyrd: Alexis and the ice cream scooper, Erik. Nobody has even cast a look their way. Yet.

    Mariner: Natalie from the Fans. I had forgotten she was even there until her confessional early in the episode about Chet needing to keep his head down and work.

    7. How did Tracy so easily sway Joel and will Joel regret letting Tracy manipulate him into voting out Mikey B.?

    AJane: She didn't have to work that hard, it's obvious that Joel was itching for a reason to get rid of Mikey. I think it was a mistake to do this early on, but it certainly puts Joel in a very safe position as the only really strong male on the tribe.

    MsFroggy: Joel is a big musclebound guy with delusions of grandeur and the desire to be a leader at all costs. All Tracy had to do was show him a way to accomplish that goal and he eagerly jumped on it. He'll pay for that down the road somewhere.

    Dagwood: I think he swayed so easily because she played his ego. Can't let someone else run the game. He will regret it later on when he gets voted out. If he had gone ahead and voted out Chet he would make it farther in the game. As it is, he is going to lose numbers and be gone.

    Leo: Joel was looking for a reason to get Mikey out. Tracy gave him one. Brilliant, subtle play by her.

    waywyrd: Joel was taken down by his big ego, and Tracy played him like a fiddle. She knew exactly what to say and how to say it, and he fell for it all. That said, I don't think it was time to let Mikey go. He could have been useful to the tribe still, while Chet is just driftwood.

    Mariner: waywyrd is exactly right. In fact, I wrote down the phrase "played him like a fiddle" while watching the episode. I'm guessing that Tracy the homebuilder has dealt with lots of Joel's in her professional life. She used her knowledge to perfection. Joel is definitely going to regret falling right into her trap.

    8. Who will be helped and hurt the most by the coming tribal switch?

    AJane: The only ones I can see really suffering from a shakeup would be the showmancers. Everyone else stands to gain ground.

    MsFroggy: Yes, the showmances are going down. Cirie might gain from a switch because she'd sell her soul to the highest bidder just to go further in the game. Kathy will be in danger because she is simply not smart enough to be of any value to anybody. Chet may or may not realize that things have changed. He'll be in danger of waking up in sequester without even noticing.

    Dagwood: Helped, I would think Eliza. She will cozy up to the fans and they will protect her. The showmancers are going to be hurt by it. Especially if they get split down the middle.

    Leo: The showmancers are screwed, particularly Parvati and James. (Ozzy and Amanda seem like a more serious pair, so they might be able to survive a shuffle.) So's Chet - the Favorites will not make excuses for him if he screws up again. Who's helped? Jonathan needs a new environment (and new allies) - he's the one who has the most to gain.

    waywyrd: The showmances are toast, unless they manage to rope in a fan or two of theirs after the switch. It's hard to say who will be helped. Depends on who gets moved where.

    Mariner: I'd say Eliza and perhaps Tracy will be helped the most by a switch. I'll agree with everyone else that the showmancers are going to be hurt the most if they are split up.
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  2. #2
    PWS is offline
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    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 4: Carving Up the Competition

    As to whether the showmancers are helped or hurt I'm thinking Ozzy might be helped, especially if he isn't with Amanda, if he is with some of those fans who adore him. They will want to keep him around not just because it is good for the team, but because they want to get to know him. We've already heard two fans say how much they admire him....there's probably a reason we were shown that.

  3. #3
    I Think I Can Dance. Aota Bass's Avatar
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    Re: Survivor Roundtable, Week 4: Carving Up the Competition

    Sweet roundtable! Thanks!

    I'm so surprised the group of fans was still trying to vote based on keeping strong people in their tribe (except of course, for the Tracy-Joel allies who pulled a fast one)- haven't they seen enough survivor to have anticipated this tribal twist? Why keep the strongest around if you distrust them and have a 50/50 chance of fighting against them the very next day?

    And about Ami/Cirie:
    I don't think Ami was acting out any strategic initiative in telling Cirie- in Vanuatu Ami rigorously followed her own code of ethics and chastised anyone who broke her laws, even though her laws were sometimes arbitrary. Ami has very clear "right" and "wrong" things to do-- entertaining or appearing to entertain offers from a rival alliance when you already have allies is "wrong" in Ami's view, and informing people why you voted for them (assuming they're not kicking back at the losers' lounge) is "right." I don't think she thought it would put her in any better position in the game, it's just abiding her own sense of ethics. The weird thing is that in Vanuatu she genuinely defended very shady things on her part (assuming "guilty until proven innocent," withholding information not just about the game but about things that matter for daily survival like where to find food) while holding immense grudges against anyone who committed the most minor infractions (just ask Twila, Bubba, or Lisa).
    Last edited by Aota Bass; 03-01-2008 at 06:52 PM.
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