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Thread: Survivor: Pelican Pete Report (Episode 7) - Yawn sort of rhymes with Pagong

  1. #11
    Great analysis Bill. I wonder, do you see the old Sabogas as a swing factor post merge? Right now there are four of them left. If 3 of them survive to make a ten member merge tribe (Jerri goes this week, merge the next) there would be 4 original Chapera's, 3 MM's, and 3 Saboga's. That leaves open the possibility that the Chapera's get Pagonged with their 4 - 6 disadvantage. If seems then that Rob and Ambers behavior is a significant threat to Tom and Alicia, as it could spark an alliance of the other two tribes.

  2. #12
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Oct 2002
    I hope something like that will happen, but Tom, and to some extent Alicia, seem blind to the possibilites right now. It seems that the late night pledge they all made to Chapera is likely to stand until it is too late.
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  3. #13
    FORT Fogey
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    Apr 2003
    Fantasy Land
    Quote Originally Posted by veejer
    Great report as always, Bill. And very entertaining.

    Coming into the game, Lex and Kathy were two of my favorites, but I'm afraid that Lex has blown it for both of them. I think he should have waited one more TC to make his move. He should have gone along and voted out Jerri with the other guys. Then if they had to go to TC again before a merge, Colby could have been voted out. Lex, Kathy and Shii Ann wouldn't even have needed Ethan's vote for that.

    If the merge happened before Colby was gone, there is still time to get rid of him. He won't win every individual immunity challenge.

    This scenario really reminds me of S7-Episode 6 where Trish tried to get Rupert for the same reason, only ended up leaving herself. And Rupert only made it to the second jury seat.
    EXACTLY! That was because Burton was there and did his own share of winning challenges. There is Rob M, Rupert, himself(Lex I'm talking about), and Ethan left to get Colby out. NO WAY he wins every IC, he might've even lost the very first one post merge and then he's gone immediately. FOOLISH!

  4. #14
    Not caring is fun! Matt64's Avatar
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    Mar 2004
    Thinking back to Marquesas (is that how you spell it?) I think we need to take into account what I am dubbing "the Kathy Factor". She was continually on the outs in that game, and each time, she swung back and forth with people not really noticing. She made a comment about swinging over to Chapera, but given her past game, she'll swing when the time is right. I think Kathy is probably going to be a major factor in the outcome of this game.

    Marquesas and Amazon saw no Pagonging, even though in both seasons there was a large disparity in the tribes. Marquesas was because of Kathy, and Amazon was because of Rob C. Also, in both seasons, it was the tribe with the weaker numbers that produced the winner.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt64
    I think Kathy is probably going to be a major factor in the outcome of this game.
    I would really love it if you are correct. By the way, I totally agree with all the people who have opined that Lex made a dumb move. And Colby made it easy for him by making another dumb move.

  6. #16
    FORT Fogey
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    Jun 2003
    nice analysis Bill, like always!

  7. #17
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    Sep 2002
    He executed his plan to perfection. It was just a bad idea.

    I think it is far too dangerous in this version of the game to assume a merge. Plus, it is far too dangerous to hurt your own tribe’s chances to compete when there was an easy obvious boot remaining in Jerri.
    I agree.
    I think he was the epitome of smooth in how he went about shoring up support for his plan.
    He was just a few days too early.
    MM will lose the next IC imo, and we'll have to see the misfit tribe, the tribe that on the whole least deserved to be in an "All-Star" game imo, Pagong the Mogo's.

    Ethan once again finds himself in a lonely place. Lex didn’t trust him enough to tell him the plan to boot Colby, so he voted for Jerri.
    Even though he was left out of the boot decision, I agree that Ethan is not in immediate danger this week.
    I still feel Jerri will be the one to go.
    We might even finally be in for an interesting show as MB throws in some entertainment to mask the obvious boot.
    I tihnk Ethan would jave been the one dissenting voice agains Lex's plan to oust Colby.
    He didn't need his vote, so why risk Ethan and Colby trying to rally either Shii Ann or Jerri to boot the other instead of Colby?

    How can they achieve this remarkable harmony?
    Well, all you need to do is throw Rob in the middle of a pack of clueless game players.
    If Amber and Rob continue to openly flaunt their coupling, while the other Chapera’s do nothing, I will be incredibly disappointed. I just cannot believe they allow this happen from a game play perspective.
    This annoys me immensely.
    There is an obvious alliance there that the Chap's should know very well they have to break up.
    If Rob is too useful to them, wehich I believe he is at this point, ditch Amber a.s.a.p.
    She should not make it through another Chapera TC should there be one.
    If Chapera go into a merge with a two person lead, as I believe they will at least, then cut a Mogo at the first TC, then ditch Amber.
    Something need sto happen to shake Rob up, he's cruising at the moment and the others are standing back and letting him.

    Wonderful job as always Bill.
    Always an entertaining and educational read
    "That's Numberwang!"

  8. #18
    RESIDENT JEDI MASTER Stargazer's Avatar
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    Jul 2003
    On a Rocky Mountain High
    Okay Bill. I have steadfastly avoided your "reports" this season because last season's were *so* insightful, it was almost like reading spoilers. I couldn't resist to see what you thought of Lex's decision, though, so I slipped in to read just this one. Curse your analytical skills. I feel like I know how its all going to play out now.

    So, what I'm trying to say is, Great Job as always
    "Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter."- Yoda

    "I'll just see where Providence takes me and try to look like I got there confidently." - Craig Ferguson

  9. #19
    Horror of Horrors emjoi's Avatar
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    Nov 2003
    People keep saying Break up Rob and Amber... but if they don't go to Tribal Council, then it aint gonna happen. Noone is going to rock the boat and expose themselves if they dont need to.

  10. #20
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    Sep 2002
    Not the regular cabana boy
    Great work, as always, Bill! I think Kathy will be more subtle about her "swinging," but the clumsy, foolish Chaperas are going to be hard to work with, I think. How did so many non-strategic players get in this game?! And why are they all that's left? Oh, yeah. All the "threats" got voted out early.

    BTW, I loved your comments about Amber and Jenna. But this had me laughing out loud and for several minutes afterward:

    In fact, I worry about him getting to close to that fire some nights… with that breath, he could light up his whole face instantly
    Wonderful job.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

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