The whole edit of Rafe possibly switching is the usual Survivor red herring to throw off viewers from what will become a predictable game from this point on. Keep us all hoping "will he do it this episode"? He's got nothing to gain by switching alliances and everything to lose. The more I think about it, the more I see it going like this:
Ep 9 boot: Bobby Jon Strong threat, same reason as Brandon boot
Ep 10 boot: Judd They didn't boot him when he stole the beer and had a meltdown in TC and they didn't boot him when he blew chunks in the shelter because they still needed him. He has now outlasted his usefulness. They have booted the majority of Old Nakum, making it impossible for Judd to try and switch alliances again (in the event of a desperation bid by any of them). They no longer have to put up with Judd's antics and he is seen as a bigger immunity threat than Danni. Steph and Jamie view each other as the bigger goat to go against in F2, not you.
Ep 11: Cindy This was planned as Danni's boot. Wishful thinking/hoping on my part that Danni either wins immunity or she finds the immunity idol and uses it this episode. Forcing new Nakum to pick someone else. Cindy was always expendible and going to be boot 6 anyway, they get rid of her 1 episode early.
Ep 12 Danni Immunity threat, F2 threat to win, not in core alliance.
Ep 13 Gary Immunity threat, F2 threat to win, not in core alliance
Ep14 Lydia F2 threat to win over Steph, Jamie and Rafe.
Ep 15 Jamie smaller goat of the 2 for Rafe. Rafe wins immunity ( endurance) and has best chance to beat Steph in F2
F2 Steph and Rafe. Steph argues that Rafe was a coat tail rider, weak player and sat out most challenges or did poorly in challenges he did participated in. Not much on strategy. Rafe argues this is Steph's second time playing the game. She knew what to expect, he didn't. He deserves it more being a first time player and making it to F2 by his *cough*wits*cough* even though he didn't have the physical game, he did outlast everyone else and managed to do it without screwing people over or pissing them off. Showed all jury members respect and is likeable. He strategically got himself to F2 despite his inabilites in challenges
In a survivor first, it's a unanimous decision 7-0 for Rafe as Survivor winner. Steph gets no votes because the jury members either hate her for screwing them over or agree with Rafe that she doesn't deserve it as a second time player
IMO, that's the way I predict the rest of the season going. I wonder how close I'll come.