Also, from all interviews we have heard regarding which way the jury members would vote if the final were between Danni and Rafe, Rafe would have lost to Danny. So, even if Rafe did go to the final 2, he would not have won.
As I stated before, Rafe's million dollar mistake was made when he booted Lydia instead of Danni during the final 4. We are 99% sure that Lydia had no chance of winning the final 3 immunity challenge. So if Rafe won the immunity, he would have been in the final two. If Steph won the immunity, she would have taken Rafe to the final 2 since she thought he was as guilty as she was in terms of backstabbing. In either case, Rafe would have won the survivor.
Why did Rafe decide to bring Danni instead of Lydia to the final 3? He said during the interview that it was because he believed both Danni and Steph would have taken him to the final 2 should either of them win the immunity challenge at the final 3 stage. He thought this was the only way to gurantee his final 2 spot. In my opinon, he never seriously considered what would be the best move for the final WIN, he only set his eyes on getting into the final 2. As a consequence, he picked the wrong person to go into final 3 and he deserved to lose. Too bad that Steph was screwed by RAFE's stupidity in the process, since Lydia was STeph's only hope of winning the game.
Rafe made a stupid move. But releasing Danni from her promise was not THE stupid move (since that move had zero impact on the outcome of the game -- danni would NOT have take Rafe anyway). The Truly stupid move Rafe made was to take Danni to final 3.