Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Six
The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the tribes. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?
I found this show to be fascinating from a strategy standpoint. So many questions to answer. Is Scout in charge of the ladies, or is it Ami? Will Yasur actually win another challenge before the merge? Is Sarge actually attracted to Twila and will they be this seasonís romanceÖ okay, ewwwwww. Letís not go there.
Sarge remains in charge, but there is a real disturbing trend going on here. First, Sarge gave away the knowledge that John is not one of the favored sons to Twila. That is a very bad choice to make when there are six in the tribe. If Julie and Twila approach John now, it opens the ability to negate the male advantage in this tribe, and force a tie at council. If they finesse it, they might even be able to make it a tie between John and one of Chad, Chris, or Lea, and that would be devastating to the men going to the merge, as the ladies seem likely to rejoin forces.
Or at least it could have been devastating. The Yasur squad set their sites on self-destruction this week, but more on that below.
To recap though, I honestly canít figure out what is going on in Sargeís mind. I may be overanalyzing yet again, but I just donít see that move helping him, and I wonder what Chad and Chris think about that deal.
Chris and Chad continue to roll along. It is easy for them to be happy and content. They have been in the majority alliance in their tribe since day one. I wonder how they will respond if they face some game adversity. I think Chad lasts longer than Chris in that case, but these two can seal their ability to go far in the game if they get together with Sarge and figure out together what their plan is. If they want to reunite the men post merge, then Julie goes next. If they think they can rope Julie and Twila in to their circle (and Twila looks accommodating to that approach) then it is safe to dump John pre-merge.
All of that assumes they will lose an immunity soon, and while they look dominant now, odds are they will lose, likely this week. My point being, the three need to decide together what to do now, before the vote, and not wait until they lose the immunity and decide that afternoon, when emotions run high, and mistakes are made.
John seems to think he is free sailing to the merge, but he needs to do some work to shore up an alliance somehow, or he could make himself the early boot. Conversely, Julie has a strategy, but it is mostly based on the assumption that the men will keep her around for the nude bathing. It could work. You need only look to all-stars to see silly reasons working to keep someone around, or even let them win.
Twila is sitting pretty safe, but she has to choose sides. If she turns her back on Julie, then she may not be able to work with the women post merge, but she herself would have great odds of making the merge. However, if she wants to win, then I think she should consider the Julie/John alliance option if it is available. That kind of group could go far post merge as it has openings to the Scout/Ami power bloc, as well as the remains of the Sarge/Chad/Chris group (assuming Twila wins in her gambit of forcing a tie).
This tribe should be pretty intriguing to watch up to the merge.
Who is this new Ami person? Someone walked into camp overnight and replaced our good old under the radar Ami, with the new super man-hating, enforcing her dominance Ami that appeared this week. It was a pretty impressive tour de force.
Now, I really think she over reacted to what Lisa said, and I wonder if it was just perhaps an excuse for her to take the lead in the tribe and pick off one of the Scoutís supporters, but I was shocked by the boot. I would have figured Lisa was the last person he was in danger here, but how quickly the tides turn.
It has been this way all season though. Dolly suicides herself in one afternoon. Bubba offís himself in 10 seconds at one challenge. Now Lisa does herself in just with a slip of the tongue to the wrong person. Incredible.
This season doesnít seem intense as we watch, but the need to remain flawless in your demeanor and comments is growing as we get into it. These people are looking for reasons to boot someone, and not really strategizing. It is making for a very chaotic game.
As for the boot of Lisa itself, I just think Scout got outmaneuvered, and she needs to find a way to make peace with Ami, and the vote showed Rory, Ami, Eliza, and Leann all against her. This was a horrific week for Scout in terms of the game. I am not sure if she can scramble to save herself. It is critical for her survival for Yasur to win the next immunity. If she can delay her next visit to tribal council, then perhaps she can focus back on Eliza, who is no friend of Ami and Leann.
Whatever the overreaction of the ladies in Yasur, you have to give Rory a lot of credit. He decided on a strategy, and stayed true to it. Before he knew it, he was not only safe, but playing a key role in leadership in the tribe. Now Ami and Lisa should have worked out their differences and stayed true to the plan, Rory was prepared and looking for those cracks in Yasur solidarity, and he took advantage of the situation. Well done!
I Guess That Didnít Work
Lisa made one minor mistake, and it cost her the game, not that she was going to win. I canít really fault her for it either. It was a small issue, and I still suspect that Ami had planned to make a move no matter what. Nevertheless, she failed to respond after Ami told her to her face that she would be willing to vote against her. That was a significant warning sign, and Lisa didnít act on the warning.
A deserving boot.
Twila is plotting with Julie to surprise the guysÖ or given this is an MB preview, it is probably much ado about nothing, and Twila will vote however her cuddle-buddy Sarge wants her to vote. See ya next week.
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