I'm sorry Zhora but your theory makes little sense.
There's no possible way Michelle is going tonight.
Michelle and Jon have both sat out a lot of challenges, but Michelle has proved her worth in the last immunity challenge. Jon, well, has not.
1) Morgan has lost 3 of their least physical players, leaving a predominantly physically strong, (albeit idiotic), male team.
2) It’s early enough in the game that the challenges are still very physical.
You're not comparing the right people here.
3) Yes, Jon is an ass, but he's a male ass, and may have more physical strength than Michelle.
Michelle is not someone on the cutting block, she is not the person you want Jon compared to, nor would Drake compare Michelle's and Jon's strength.
The rest of this post is a hypothetical - let's say Drake goes to TC.
Jon is not going to be compared to Michelle - why Michelle? Why not Sandra? Why not Christa? Jon is going to be compared to Shawn, Burton, and Rupert.
Jon loses here.
This doesn't really make sense.
OK, maybe, maybe not …but he will continue to be obnoxious and hard to live with and is therefore a bigger target than threat. If you’re serious about winning Survivor wouldn’t you rather live with an obnoxious “target” dickhead that you can beat than a sweet “threat” girl in a possible alliance?
You're think you're saying that since Jon already has a target on his back he will go eventually, but this and that because Michelle is a sweet girl so that means she's in an alliance, is not true.
Why should they assume Michelle is an alliance? For that matter, why couldn't Jon be in an alliance?
You need to look at this from THEIR perspective, not what from what we see. I personally think, due to the Insider transcripts as Sucks, that Michelle probably is in an alliance with Shawn and Burton, but the Survivor's can't point at her and 'go she's in an alliance with Shawn and Burton' JUST because of cocnut milk the first DAY.
You are really stereotyping, but then again this isn't really negative. Just because Michelle is a cute girl - which is at this point all her tribemates out of the alliance know - doesn't mean she's in an alliance and a cocky bastard isn't just because he IS a cocky bastard.
Psst, Nicole left the game already.
4) If you were someone on Drake other than Shawn, Burton or Michelle, and saw that they were getting close to the point of being exclusive, perhaps you would think that now would be the time for a preemptive strike.
But why now? Why not three days from now? Why not three days AGO? What does anyone have to gain in targetting someone (targetting someone and forming an alliance are different) when you made so clear to say at this point in time, because at this point in time Drake has not lost a challenge, that hasn't done anything wrong?
You're calling Michelle a threat but also calling her weak. That doesn't make any sense.
Michelle is everything Jon is or could be (weak and possibly in an alliance...people like Jon AND Michelle have both won Survivor before too) except Jon is extremely annoying and has bugged many other tribemates.
Jon loses there.
Who is going to do that? The rest of the Drake tribe? Because Shawn/Burton/Michelle don't realize a 3 way vote is not the majority? What's to stop them from recruiting someone like Trish, and, better yet, why not recruit Jon himself? That would be a majority vote where Michelle and Jon BOTH stay.
Why not cripple Shawn and Burton by taking their 3rd pea from the pod, while keeping them on for their physical strength at challenges?
You're theory makes no sense because why should the other Survivor's sense that Michelle is in an alliance over similary-strengthed Christa and Sandra who also could be in an alliance?
Why is Jon the one who is getting drunk?
5) The editing just makes Jon seem too painfully obvious, and I don't think that it says anywhere that the drunkard is the one voted off.
Probably Jon? Yeah, probably, but people are going around saying it's automatically Jon. It could very well be Burton, Shawn, Rupert, Michelle (read her profile - she likes beer), Jon, Christa, hell maybe Sandra.
The only person I believe we can definitely rule out from drinking is Trish. There's just no reason Jon is the automatic drunkard when Jon - despite being the LOUDEST drunk - wasn't the only one drinking when he was.
Second, I don't believe Jon is going tonight. I believe it to be Christa. There is extremely convincing non-spoiler evidence of a Christa boot one can realize by watching the episode's closely.
But to Michelle, I'm sorry, but your theory is just off.
I haven't been reading any sucks spoilers, but it seems to me that it is very likely Michelle is in alliance with Burton and Shawn. She is with them constantly on camera.
I supported the theory that Michelle is in an alliance with Burton and Shawn. There's no actual spoilers however about alliances in Drake at the moment. We do have Insider Survivor video transcripts but that's a collection of scenes that just missed the episode but are very useful for clues anyway.
But as for a Michelle boot tonight, there is just no possible way. In other words, Michelle is going to have to do something so bad that she's going to be voted off, not taking in the fact she is in an alliance to protect her that can recruit more. Since Michelle is only going tonight by way of doing something horrible, it's not really a theory you can have...it's a surprise.
I would just like to add, I think people would be surprised at the lack of spoilers this season. There's no ChillOne, and actually the spoiler sites have been fairly dried up on good spoilers so far. It's mostly good speculation with the occasional minor spoiler that does nothing more than ADD to the speculation.
The boards are pretty stumped on who to pick until maybe two days before the episode where the sites vary in their choices. I know Sucks didn't pick the Lillian boot last week for example and they are the heart of the spoiler community.
The evidence for a Christa boot is almost all non spoiler speculation...very good evidence I might add.
I didn't vote , but I am kinda torn between Michelle and Crista being voted off. Zhora's view seems very logical to me because If I was there I would feel more threatened by someone who has "power" by association (Michelle) then by someone who will undoubtedly hang himself in time (Jon). In regard to Christa , She is in a weak position ( I think) because she stayed behind to help Jon (whom no one likes, and might believe them to be in alience with each other) and everyone was ticked at both of them for leaving camp when they were told it was important that someone be there at all times (afraid of pirating). Also she was feeling bad for the Morgan's loosing what little they had so that might be seen a too much of a weakness by some of the other Drakes. Just my thoughts...
:laugh TheFlying amuses me.
If Drake goes to TC tonight, I think it is plausible that anyone could get voted out. If there is indeed discussion of throwing the IC, there are two possibilities. The first is at least five of the tribe agree and whoever they wanted out goes. The second is whoever is pushing for throwing the IC will go. I don't see any alliances of five on Drake, so it could be anyone.
Why? Everything I said makes sense. I guess we will just have to watch the show. Michelle is not going tonight.
TheFlying amuses me
Once again, the other survivors may not know she is in an alliance. WE don't 100% know if she's in an alliance. The quote would apply to someone like Tijuana, not Michelle yet. It could change in the future but Michelle is not in any kind of power position unless it's being hidden really really well.
but I am kinda torn between Michelle and Crista being voted off. Zhora's view seems very logical to me because If I was there I would feel more threatened by someone who has "power" by association (Michelle)
Two things: 1) anything is possible in Survivor, week to week. Nobody is 100% safe. 2) The Drakes do know that Michelle is in a coconut milk drinking alliance with Shawn and Burton. :)
Wow, only 3 voted for Burton. :lol Many were right that it would be someone from Drake, but there wasn't enough info. to know who. I was surprised to see the Burton/ Shawn/ Michelle alliance broken up, especially with Shawns vote. Michelle got hung out to dry there but I'm sure she'll get back in with the rest of Morgan.
Muahaha, I am so smart. I don't know how I guessed that but I was 1 of 3 right that Burton was gone. Could that reason be because I am Jeff Probst? That could be true...but its not...
Originally Posted by brusch
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