Exile Files is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring on the Panamanian beaches and on Exile Island. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?
Like a storyboard to a motion picture thriller, so is this season of Survivor. In just four days on the island we have seen two tribal shifts, two members to Exile Island and a whole lot of speculation as to where Burnett is taking this game. Who’d of thunk the top storyline would be about a dude with a raging temper having a nic fit? Usually by now, we have two young twenty-something’s curled up in each other’s arms. ‘I like you.’ ‘No, I like you more, snuggle buns.’ *blech*
The anthropology aspect of Survivor is always very interesting. Tribe members who barely know each other have that sixth sense to seek out players of their own. Human instinct at its best. Margaret Meade, eat your heart out.
Realizing that there would be no sex involved with the current teams, it’s only fitting to merge the four tribes into two. This way we get the obligatory snogging and backstabbing that we’ve all come to know and love. TV viewers, eat your heart out.
Let’s take a look at each team and see what we got:
On paper and on screen, this team just has “it”. A nice balance of old and young. I couldn’t see anyone on La Mina not being there. You could swap out Nick for Bobby and it would still keep the stars in alignment. Any other player from Casaya who should somehow join this tribe would ripple the space time continuum.
Already amongst this tribe are three alliances. One, which will remain steadfast to the end, and the other two which will most likely dissolve by day 21. That’s if everything goes as planned. And we all know there is always that one person who screws up a good thing.
Dan and Terry make up the first alliance. A good one at that which I mentioned in my last Exile File. These two will last until both their torches are snuffed. Or until their backs give out, whichever comes first. Terry has assumed the role of unofficial leader.
There must be something about salt-n-pepper hair. Perhaps it is that distinguished look? I think it just may be. I spotted my first gray hair last month and already chicks are knocking down my door. That or it’s the fresh scent of sugar cookies that I bake when I need to wallow in self pity…because I’m getting gray hairs. Dan will play the ever faithful sidekick. He will go right before Terry does.
Terry initiated a smart move by inviting Austin and Nick into their alliance. This makes alliance number two. Safety in numbers mean more days on the island. Conceivably, this group of four could become the greatest alliance in Survivor history. Brawn, brains and a certain likeableness highlight this quartet. Add that to an overall powerful tribe and it would be a no-brainer for those four to stay together until the end. Too bad it won’t happen.
Why not? Both Nick and Austin know that Dan and Terry have a solid allegiance. Should the quartet get to the final four, it makes Nick and Austin’s chances of getting to the final two all the more difficult. I do think, however, that this alliance can survive until the final merge.
There are other variables as well. Austin doesn’t seem like the type to ride coat tails. I believe his
afflictionaffection of beautiful women will cause him to align with some of the younger ladies. A million dollars or not, men do not always think with the right parts of their bodies. I may be stretching with this idea, but it happens every season. I see no reason why this season would be different.
Lastly we have the third alliance which is comprised of Ruth Marie, Misty and Sally. I believe this alliance formed out of necessity rather than a genuine “Hey, I think the three of us could make it all the way.” The trio are still one person short which has no value in it at all. Their saving grace will come from winning immunity challenges while persuading a fourth to come and join them. It would be in Misty and Sally’s best interest to align with Nick and Austin. Somehow, someway I have this sneaking suspicion that Ruth Marie will end up with Terry and Dan. A Survivor ménage-a-trois, if you will. She has been too quiet to leave this soon.
*Note: I did not forget the little side conference that Sally had with Austin. I think Austin was being polite and doing the auto-bob of the head when she mentioned an alliance of herself, Misty, Nick and Austin. I do not see this going anywhere for the time being.
First to go from this tribe: Sally
Oh boy, where do we begin with this mess? It’s like waking up after an all night kegger and having five minutes to clean your house before your girlfriends parents visit for the first time.
Let’s start with the obvious. Or at least the obvious for these next several days. The only alliance formed is Shane, Aras, Courtney and Danielle.
Shane is actually a genius for creating this group. It does several things to his advantage. 1) he has safety in numbers. 2) should any of the other three change alliances, this will help him attack at Tribal Council. He’ll come out smelling like roses. 3) he gets to stroke his ego by being the leader.
As we’ll soon see, this was an alliance put together by fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear of not being allowed to sit at the cool kids table during lunch. This is a common reaction. Align yourself with the most outspoken of the bunch. Then let said person put their foot in their mouth and coast along until it’s time to change alliances. It’s good for the short term and with this alliance, I think it will be a very short honeymoon.
With Melinda gone, this leaves Bobby, Cirie and Bruce. While Bobby voted out Melinda, he won’t align with the foursome. It was done out of necessity. Why should he vote for Shane knowing full well that he’ll be there for another round of Tribal Council? No need for a bullseye on his back this early. As for Cirie? I think she just might stick around a little longer. Not sure how, but I think she will become a sideline viewer to who goes next.
I think the dynamics will change upon Bruce’s arrival from Exile Island. Bruce will emerge as the leader of Cirie and Bobby. There is already no love lost between Shane and Bruce and with his addition, it may make a defection by Danielle all the more probable. This would shuffle the numbers towards Bruce’s alliance and send Shane packing. Or Courtney. Aras is safe until the merge.
In summation, it really doesn’t matter who aligns with who. This tribe has forgotten the most important rule of all: win the immunity challenges. There is too much jockeying for position among the tribe to realize that in-tribe alliances must give way to total tribal unity at challenges. This tribe is comprised of a bunch of Emo kids all vying to be the coolest kid on Myspace.
Who is the next to go from this tribe? I’m going to be bold. Shane. Despite my declaring him to be a genius, I think the other’s will cut their losses and get out now before it gets too complicated.
Next week: thoughts on Exile Island and how it will affect the coming days.
Disclaimer: I don’t base my analysis on any spoilers that I might come across. This file is based solely on what is shown on television. I make unusual predictions because something unusual always happens in this game. One of these days I’m going to be right.
These are my thoughts. What say you?
Thanks to the FoRT members for coming up with the many different names for Shane. Thought of a few others? Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I’ll include them next week.