Matt, despite his professed faith in his god, isn't that good, frankly, or he would never have betrayed his one true friend, Andrea, like that. A good Christian would have realized that other people have "lives" and he would have discussed it with her before spilling all to Rob, to give her a chance to portray herself as a non-Rob-traitor, even discussed it with her and come to a MUTUAL decision about going with Rob, not just blindsiding her like that. It's as if Matt didn't even think Andrea mattered at all, only Matt. Even if Rob had trusted Matt after that blather (and why should he trust someone who seriously considered defecting?), he would never have trusted Andrea, who was portrayed by Matt as selling out Rob. Nice work, Matt--really sleazy for such a "good" guy, even if not a conscious decision on your part. No wonder Andrea doesn't seem so enamored anymore. Don't blame her.
I also agree Matt has not that good a chance of winning the remaining RI contests. Earlier, except for Russell, the tribes were invested in voting out the weak members, so no surprise he won the challenges. Now the goal is to vote out any strong person who doesn't have immunity, and there are a lot of strong men on Russell's old tribe that are likely to give Matt a real challenge.
To the question when will Rob's tribe wake up and vote him out...if he doesn't dump Andrea quickly she strikes me as the most likely leader of the revolt. She seems like the only one with a working brain, and I agree she might ally with low ranking members of the other team---especially those low on Rob's hit list who will be around for a bit, aka women. Maybe even some of the beachbathing females on her team if she's formed some kind of bond. If she has ANY sense she won't bring Phillip into it for a while, but keep him in reserve. The man has NO filter and cannot be trusted not to blow any plan at TC, BEFORE the vote.