Who do you think risks the boot in episode 4?
I am going to proceed on the assumption that there is no merge this week as that would make things a lot more random.
Erin: Alligned with J/S/P/K. I don't see any chance of her going this week. Very little "face" time up until last night when she did have a couple of confessionals.
Penny As with Erin, she's part of an alliance against the lazies. Again, very little face time so far. The editing hasn't really even begun to establish her as this years "sweetheart" so I feel she will be around for a while.
Shii Ann Received votes from Jed, Robb and Steph last night, but with Jed being booted it would seem as though Shii is safe with her alliance for the time being.
Stephanie Her association with Jed and negative attitude around camp mark her as a target. Her illness resulting fro sleeping on the beach in the rain leaves the others pegging her as stubborn and not a team player. I feel that she is in real danger of the boot if Sook's lose or throw the next IC.
Robb Initially a hard worker round camp and critical of Jed, he changed his tune completely scaled down his workload considerably and became Jed'a ally. Totally out of the loop when it came to vote, he now finds himself isolated from the core of the group with Stephanie. If the Sooks face another TC this week the fact that they might not want to vote two strong males off in consecutive weeks could save him, temporarily.
Ken Safe as houses.
The strongest of the younger males, has a great work ethic and realised that sometimes you have to sacrifice a little strength in favour of team unity.
Jake Being the oldest member of the tribe by a long way has not hurt Jake at all. He's been strong in the challenges and like Ken has a great work ethic. The rest of his alliance respect him and Shii Ann in particluar seems very aware of his intelligence.
Clay Despite an early "envy" vote from Helen, I don't see that Clay is at risk at all. His lack of stature does not appear to have been a problem thus far and he hasn't cost them any challenges.
Brian The voice of reason within his tribe at the moment. The youngest and fittest of the males his strength will be vital. Safe for quite some time.
Ted This weeks incident with Ghandia has not helped his cause. He is by far the more level-headed of the two though and previews for episode 4 seem to indicate that he is not being isolated from the group. His strength will probably be seen as a major assest to the group and will save him from the chop.
He seems to have the support of the other two men at least so there could be a tied vote at TC.
Ghandia Human disaster area. She accepts Ted's apology, thanks him, then tells the women that she didn't think he was being genuine. Has created discord in the group by allowing the issue to fester when it could and should have been laid to rest. Her childish and overly dramatic behaviour will single her out as a divisive element within the group. I think she is in great danger of the boot next week.
Helen Was very quick to rally round Ghandia and allowed herself to get drawn into the he said/she said hoohar.
She might think back and remember that Ghandia voted against her when Tanya was ousted, citing her inability to gel with the rest of the group as the reason. Helen seems more than capable of bearing a grudge. She is a straight talker and Ghandia's dramatic will probably be a huge turn off.
I would think she is safe for now as Chuay have more important issues to work out.
Jan As with Helen, the situation at Chuay camp will allow her to remain UTR for this week.
She could get pulled into a male/female tribe split so she will need to think where her alliegiance lies. She was blamed for the IC loss when Tanya was booted but the combination of two wins in episode 3 and the drama at camp means that's all but forgotten. I would think she's safe this week,
Obviously a switch will effect people's safety this week.
I would say the most at risk are Ghandia, Stephanie and Robb.