Isn't it about this time that the members of an alliance start looking to stab the back of their other allliance so they can get further in the game? Seems like every season there is an alliance of 4-5 who take each other so far & then when it becomes advantageous to use the minority tribe they use them to stab the others in the back....funny thing is always seems to backfire & the minority tribe's member becomes the Sole Survivor.
Should be a very interesting show tonight.
I hope Danni learns that Gary offered up BJ, though how she'd learn that doesn't look good, since Jamie misunderstood Gary. However, Gary and Jamie do get into it tonight, so maybe Gary is forced to reiterate to Jamie exactly what it was he said previously...that he'd vote out Bobby Jon. If this is within earshot of Danni, hopefully she'll realize that Gary cannot be trusted. At the last TC, she said she couldn't trust her new post-merge tribemates because her head was on the chopping block. Now, she can realize an old tribemate cannot be trusted either.
Wouldn't it be cool though, if they all decided to throw out the alliances, and really play individually? It would never happen, but I'd like to see it.
See, the thing is, this can't really happen (at least, not with cash prizes). Greg Buis went on the original Survivor to play that type of game, where everyone made invidual votes based on the people they believed should stick around for survival skills, social skills, challenge skills, entertainment, etc. What he found it would inevitably become was 16 people attempting to make a million dollars. The goal focuses on being the last one standing, and that lends itself to voting in groups. If people talk, they will end up voting together. Even the most oblivious Survivor players vote with a group thought process, and that oblivious player is, in turn, booted by a group vote. It's impossible to make completely individual votes because one can't help but be influenced by how they feel everyone else is voting. It is because Survivor so much focuses on individual survival that each player is forced to rely on the group to ensure their individual success. The million dollar prize that waits for the winner guarentees that people are playing to get themselves farther ahead, and with that comes the necessity to go with the group.
Originally Posted by lopevian
The social experiment Greg signed up for would be fascinating to experience or view, but it would be a completely different show, one that would not captivate on such a basic level as Survivor does now. Mr. "Coconut Phone" Buis would undoubtably have won Borneo if it had involved the type of
game experience that he had anticipated, and not the strategic alliance-forming and individual competition that it instead became.
Okay, now that Gary and Danni actually HAVE stayed another week, maybe this topic is relevent again. Is there a reasonable way for them to go even further? One has to assume it involves raking Judd over the coals.
It had me wondering if the fact that Judd was kept out in the cold last week had as much with Gary--off camera of course--having maybe told the others about Judd lying about the jungle idol as it did the fact that Judd was hesitant to change the "six plan". Of course Stephanie would have to be keeping her pre-knowledge of Judd's actions quiet--which could still backfire on her.
So Judd loses his temper next week over being snookered in the vote. Gary and Danni have to lean on Rafe and Cindy primarily I think, and cast Judd as the villain.
I think when we saw the "sly" smile on Gary's face he knew he made some sense to Steph with his on board speech about only the strong deserve to keep going. Hopefully Rafe and Cindy will hear his speech and agree to it.
After last night's challenge Cindy and Steph have to realize they can beat Gary in any immunity challenge....so won't see him as such a threat anymore...even though he is "alway in game mode" like Steph said.
I hope it works out this way and Gary sucks up to Rafe, Cindy, and Steph just get rid of Judd and Lydia.
Notice I don't mention Lydia in any of my words.......that is because she is invisible and should be voted off after Judd.
It seemed to me last night that although Steph likes Gary and Danni she was prepared to pick them off. She only decided to vote out Jamie because Rafe and Lydia said that is what they wanted to do. We never saw anyone talk to Cindy about it but she voted with the majority. Jamie may have it wrong. Rafe isn't Steph's lapdog. He's Steph's Geppetto pulling her strings. Assuming that Rafe is really the puppetmaster, Gary and Danni need him to see the two of them as the better option or they need to make a really risky move and try to make Steph, Cindy and/or Lydia see Rafe as a danger. If they can sway Rafe, he can bring either Lydia or Cindy with him, and Gary and Danni will be part of a 4-3 majority. Same if they can get two of the women to join them. I don't see them getting Judd on their side no matter what.
If Gary and Danni really want to go for final two and not just final 4, they must get rid of Stephanie next. My husband and I were discussing this last night and now, especially after last night's vote, is the ideal time to make their move to crack the core 5.
Originally Posted by ScarlettO
Judd is feeling very vulnerable now. Gary needs to approach Judd and point out to him a few things:
1. Remind Judd that he's odd man out after the last vote. He's the only one who didn't vote for Jamie.
2. Stephanie is running the game. She's making all of the calls. Judd, do you really think that everyone would have voted Jamie off if Steph hadn't given the OK. Why do you think that Steph didn't tell you? It's because she knew you would tip off Jamie and she couldn't have that happen.
3. Not only did Steph blindside Jamie, she also blindsided Judd by not letting him in on the plan. Who's to say she isn't planning on voting Judd out next. She'd still have the numbers on her side if Judd went so Judd is expendable at this point.
By being very clear on these points, Judd is now set up for Gary to present "the deal". Judd, you don't know where you stand with your alliance right now. Right now, it looks like you're next and Danni and I will be following right behind you. Join us and bring Cindy or Lydia with you and we will have a final 4 alliance. (Judd will probably have better luck bringing in Cindy than Lydia because Lydia seems to be enjoying Steph's protection a little too much.) They vote out Steph and Rafe, and it's a win-win for Judd because Gary convinces him that he can't trust Stephanie anymore.
When they get down to final 5, there would need to be another swing in the alliances to get Judd voted off. Final 4 would be Gary, Danni, Lydia, Cindy. Cindy goes next because she's more of a threat than Lydia when it comes to the final 3 endurance challenge. Danni and Gary blow Lydia out of the water in the last challenge and become the final 2.
But this would all hinge on Gary convincing Judd to join him and them getting rid of Stephanie NOW. Other than that, I don't see any scenario where Steph is not in the final two right now.
O.K. I have to say Steph was in a very sticky situation last night.
It was not Steph who orchestrated Jamie's demise it was Rafe. If Steph had not gone along with them.........she knew Rafe, Cindy, and Lydia "could" turn on she and Judd if she said NO and hang them out to dry by joining up with Danni and Gary.
Steph is not dumb and she thinks real fast.
She really had no other choice but to go along with them. I think Rafe should be watched as much as Steph.
I think Steph is more worried about Gary than Gary is worried about Steph but this is JMHO. I think Gary is getting weak and is worried about the MALE competitors. You know the pi$$ing factor men have for each other. When they should be worried about some of the females they go after each other time and time again.
I agree that Rafe must be watched too and that's why my scenario above has Rafe going right after Steph. But I don't agree that it was Rafe who orchestrated Jamie's ouster. Rafe brought the idea to Stephanie, but if Stephanie had insisted that they stick to the plan, Rafe (and Lydia) would have rolled over and gone with voting off Gary.
Originally Posted by ScarlettO
Who was it...Judd maybe...who made the comment that Rafe is Stephanie's lap dog. He couldn't have said it better. Rafe may have brought her the idea but if she's have said no, Rafe would have dropped it.
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