Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Nine
Sarge is dismissed
The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Alinta tribe. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?
This week the ladies continued to dismember the remaining men. It remains to be seen if that will continue to be the case. The previews for next week indicate that Scout is looking to shake up the Ami dictatorship, but given MBís usual misdirection in the preview, you can almost bet the exact opposite will happen, so either another guy will go home, or Scout herself will.
Thatís not to say that Ami is going to win the game. I still say she will lose before the final four, as the other ladies are most assuredly going to turn against her. However, I think it was Amiís boot choice this week that may have been the final nail in the coffin for her. Why? Read on my friends. . .
There were a few subtle things that happened this week that I think are clues to the future. First, did you notice the confessional Chris gave right before tribal council where he said that Sarge, Chad, and himself had been an alliance since day one, but now they didnít have the numbers? That struck me at the time as being an edited version of that talk, specifically leaving out the rest of it, which went something like this: ďSince we are outnumbered, I need to look out for myself, thus I am making a deal with XĒ. Chris went on to vote against Sarge at tribal council. He clearly has cut his own deal now, which is not a bad move. Chris is a smart player, and he is trying to adapt. The only question is, who is ďXĒ?
I suspect the mystery player is either Julie, Eliza, or Twila. Though I really think it is someone you wouldnít expect, such as Eliza. Julie is another possibility, as we already know Chris and Julie had a side deal from Chrisí confessional two weeks ago. If he made a deal with Twila, I expect that he would have voted in bloc with Chad.
Either way, Amiís mistake was believing the visual that Sarge was a strong immunity threat (sure, but no more so than Chad) and likely believing that Sarge was the head of the guy alliance. He was in open perception, but Chris has been calling the shots since early on. Strategy-wise, Sarge relied on Chris. Keeping the real strategic player in the game longer is going to hurt someone. Chris himself may not win the game (in fact, his odds are very low) but whereas Rory was all talk, Chris is diabolical enough to burn down the womenís alliance, especially as Amiís arrogance grows.
Now obviously all I just said was speculation, but if I am right, letís take it step further. Chris is in cahoots with someone like Eliza, and then Scout apparently approaches the men and Twila this week. That could be a perfect set up for a double cross of Chad or Scout (and I would guess Scout). It should be interesting to watch.
This brings us to Ami, who likely could not have avoided the Chris/Sarge leader trap unless Julie spilled the beans, and she is smarter than that. Twila likely talked, but she most likely bought into the idea that Sarge was in charge.
There is no question that Ami is a strong player in the game. As for her strategic thinking, we still need to see it. The noose is tightening around her neck. Can she sense it? She is very obsessed with her all women, I hate men, strategy that it makes me wonder if she has thought about the end game. What do you do when the women at the bottom of the totem pole realize they are next? As we discussed last week, it seems clear to me that it is only a matter of time before some of those ladies break ranks. Even if Scoutís uprising fails . . . or fails to come to pass, it will not be the last challenge to Amiís leadership. Ami needs to make some close alliances, and right now it looks like only Leann is in that category. Perhaps Eliza too, thanks to triangulation with Scout.
Speaking of Leann, she is in great position. Leann is tight with Ami, but remains silent and civil with everyone else, including scoring points with Julie thanks to the helicopter trip. I remain very wrong about her. She looks to be a final four contender easily at this point.
Much was made of Elizaís fit about being the first woman eliminated at the reward challenge. Was that enough to open her mind to the idea of working with someone like Chris? Perhaps so. Either way, Eliza would do well to make sure Ami wants Scout out first. Eliza has dodged tribal council bullets most of the game. The problem is, if they keep shooting at you, everyone else is happy because they are safe, and further, eventually the bullet will find itís mark. Eliza seems like the type of lady who is used to being the center of attention. Survivor is not the place to be that person. She would do well to get out of the spotlight as soon as possible.
Twila learned from Sarge that she had been taken by Julie a while back. Nevertheless, she was wise enough to see which way the winds were blowing and stay on her current course, voting with Ami. I can understand the logic. Sure Julie tricked her, but that is the past now, and the game goes on. Her best move was to stay safe. This week though, with open conflict amongst the women potentially on the menu, she will be forced to pick sides. Choose wisely Twila.
Julieís deceit of Twila is out in the open, but I donít think it will be used against her any time soon. Perhaps if Twila is on the jury, and Julie is in the final two, but it seemed that Twila was not all that angry about Julieís move. She was disappointed in herself for falling for it. Julie seems to be reading the tea leaves correctly and making friends with Leann. She looks pretty safe right now.
So what of Chad? Sarge voted for Eliza. Chad voted for Julie. Chris cut a deal and voted against Sarge. The three guys split their vote amongst three different ladies. Were they stupid? Or did Chad also make his own deal? Julie just seems like a throwaway vote. I am anxious to see if we learn what logic was behind this move. If there was no logic, then Chad is going soon and deservedly so.
I Guess That Didnít Work
Sarge was booted based on alliance voting. His demise was actually engineered two shows ago based on the decision to boot John, in conjunction with Julieís clever move neutralizing Twila. That turned out to be a very poor outcome to what was probably a 50/50 decision.
Sarge deserves a lot of credit in the game. He was kind of a Rupert in terms of loyalty, while having a little more moxie about the game itself than our favorite ex-pirate. That said, he was a worthy boot. The guys made a decision, they knew they were in deep trouble, but it seems Sarge did very little strategizing to save himself. Instead, he focused on setting the record straight with Twila, but that didnít influence her vote. Thus he is the first member of the jury, and likely to be an influential vote at that.
MB says Scout is going to cause trouble. Letís see what really happens.
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