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Thread: Why Rob can't win Survivor

  1. #41
    FORT Fogey
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    Oh what a tangled web...

    technomage500 posted:
    Has anyone noticed that Mathew hardly ever discuses his plans??? He repeats what Rob has told him but little else. Remember he threw the challenge last week and took a gamble that Rob would not vote against him. And it worked. Does anyone truly believe that he missed all his plates, after the way he was shooting the arrows and javelin last week?? After thinking about it, I was not surprised that he voted Christy off last night. He's letting Rob and the " stepsisters" take all the heat.
    Yes, I have noticed it. In fact, none of the others blab as much as Rockin' Rob.

    That was a very well thought out scenario and I appreciate all that you said.

    It might just go that way and I sincerely hope that Matt comes out the winner because he has definitely developed "game."

    I'm not that sure about Jenna making it to the end because of any plan she might have. If she does make it to the Final 2, it will be a matter of luck.

    It will be very interesting to see if this plays itself out the way you predict.

  2. #42
    Yogini Suxie's Avatar
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    Originally posted by technomage500
    This has been some interesting discussion here,but everybody is missing a few things IMO. There is three solid players in this game at this point. Rob, Mathew AND Jenna!!
    Rob is playing the snake card and depending on immunity challenges he could very well win by asking the jury to respect the way he played ala Richard Hatch.
    Has anyone noticed that Mathew hardly ever discuses his plans??? He repeats what Rob has told him but little else. Remember he threw the challenge last week and took a gamble that Rob would not vote against him. And it worked. Does anyone truly believe that he missed all his plates, after the way he was shooting the arrows and javelin last week?? After thinking about it, I was not surprised that he voted Christy off last night. He's letting Rob and the " stepsisters" take all the heat.
    And then Jenna...she has her own plans also that she alluded to last night. I think to win this game you need 1 person that will always vote with you and she has that in Heidi.
    In retrospect, it was either Christi or Butch last night BECAUSE they are the nicest people left. If Rob,Mathew,Jenna or Heidi went to the final vote against Christi or Butch they will LOSE.

    My predictions for the final votes goes like this...
    1st eliminated ------- Butch ( get rid of nice people)
    2nd " ------- Heidi ( Jenna will make her think it was Rob)
    3rd " ------- Rob ( Mathew will pull the rug out from
    under Rob.)
    Final two - Mathew and Jenna

    Here is my breakdown for final voting to win the million...

    Dave - Jenna
    Deena - Mathew
    Alex - Jenna
    Christy - Mathew
    Butch - Mathew
    Heidi - Jenna
    3 - 3 tie with Rob as the deciding vote. Who wins depends on whether he respects Mathew for playing him or is still lusting after Jenna.

    Namaste.

  3. #43
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    Rob may be in a better position than we initially believed because people LIKE him. Yes, he backstabbed them, but most of the jury, or potential jury, should be reasonable enough to recognize a good game (Dave, Christy, Butch, Matt, Deena & Alex) when they see it.

    Richard won the respect of people that HATED him and was able to win. I don't think it should be all that difficult for Rob, unless the jury is more bitter than I anticipate.
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


  4. #44
    Premium Member NYGal's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Zaius
    Sometimes jury members like a-holes. As has been said earlier, everyone thought Richarch Hatch would lose because he's been such an a-hole, but sometimes juries forget that and give them their vote because they think they played a better game. You can NEVER be sure who will win out of the final 2, because juries are so fickle. A contestant on the jury can whine all game about someone on the final 2's backstabbing then vote FOR them in the end.
    Yes, but don't forget Rich was an a-hole to the camera, not to the other Survivors.

  5. #45
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    No, he was an A-hole to the other Survivors.

    He was not well liked but they stupidly kept him around. I think Rob is doing a better job of befriending people and getting their trust, albeit temporarily than Rich ever did. At the end, the only person that liked him was Rudy.

    not in a homosexual way, that's fer sure!
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


  6. #46
    Premium Member NYGal's Avatar
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    Miss Filangi - I politely disagree. He talked a lot of smack to the camera, but more or less toed the line.
    Last edited by NYGal; 05-05-2003 at 05:02 PM.

  7. #47
    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    Richard wasn't very shy about displaying his machiavellian strategy, which is more or less Rob's attitude so far. You're right though, Richard - like Rob - hasn't overtly been too rude to anyone. When I wrote a-hole I meant alliance/backstabbing-wise
    "The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of an expanding bureaucracy."
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  8. #48
    FORT Fan Tuluminous's Avatar
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    I caught up by watching the last two episodes. Rob is a brilliant strategist and/or a natural manipulator. He even threw the jurors a bone by admitting that he wasn't handsome. Alex and Rocket Man were stroked, and Deena can identify! Rob's voice started developing the slightest quaver and his gait/coordination, I thought also minutely awry: I wonder if he is a bit of a real life Captain Qweeg, or does he perhaps have some sort of neurological condition exacerbated by the stress and semi-starvation? He has greatly impressed me as to the depths plumbed by the dark side of man--given me a new respect for treachery which abounds in wait, which is what makes this great [tv/] fare.

  9. #49
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    Originally posted by rbadler

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    His move this week of telling Jenna that he wants to vote off Heidi and take her to the final two because he knows he can beat her there was a huge mistake.
    Actually, I disagree.

    Maybe I'm giving Rob way too much credit here, but I think telling Jenna that he wants to take her to the Final 2 because he feels he has the best chance of winning against her was a stroke of genius.

    You have to put it in the context of what had just transpired and the overall mood and mindset of some of the key players.

    What Rob has done, IMHO, is attempt to make inroads into another way to make the Final 2. He realizes that voting Alex out and betraying Heidi and Jenna was a very dangerous (albeit necessary) move and that their votes, together, could spell "Game Over" for him. Seeing that he may no longer be able to orchestrate his own way into the Final 2, he tells an already incensed Jenna about his secret plan to take her to the Final 2 because she is even more hated than he is. Rob now sits back and hopes that Jenna betrays his trust in her, just as he had done to her the previous evening at Tribal Council. She does. And when she does, the other tribemates give serious creedence to this revelation, especially since they believe it was something that was not supposed to be revealed to them. Rob, however, did want them to hear about his "secret plan with Jenna". Now the remaining tribemates are saying to themselves, "You know...Rob has stabbed a lot of jury members in the back, and Heidi and Jenna are mad at him right now...maybe I should consider taking him with me to the Final 2 if the opportunity presents itself." Rob has effectively sown the "Rob-is-hated" seed in their minds in an effort to get pulled into the Final 2 by another tribemate who views him as their best chance of winning the $1 million.

    As I said earlier, perhaps I'm giving Rob credit for a brilliant maneuver when, in fact, it was nothing more than a severe error in judgment. But Rob just doesn't seem to make these kinds of mistakes. Over the past few weeks I have learned never to underestimate his cunning and prowess at the game of Survivor.
    Last edited by tmcrae; 05-08-2003 at 04:22 PM.

  10. #50
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    I agree with your analysis. Rob is much to careful to tell something so critical to someone who hates him.

    If the others think they have a good chance against him, they may carry him. If they had to choose between Rob/Jenna to take to the F2, and figure they will win either way... of course they are going to take Rob before whiny, sucky spoiled Jenna.
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


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