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Thread: How do we get there from here? The Final 2 *spoilers*

  1. #91
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    Originally posted by Alexa
    They have to split the girls up so tonight Heidi goes. Next Rob has served his purpose to Butch, Matt and Christy so they get rid of him next. Next episode the plan might be to get rid of Jenna but she ends up winning immunity so the vote goes to Christy. Final 3, either Jenna or Matt wins immunity opting to vote out Butch because he hasn't appeared to wrong anyone therefore there is a big chance he might become the sole survivor so they feel threatned by him so off he goes. Leaving Matt and Jenna as the final two.
    Here's where I have a problem with Heidi being booted tonight. It would seem to be the logical choice to make, given that Rob, Butch, Christy and Matt are in prime position to do some Pagonging. I'm sure everyone who subscribes to the notion of Jenna making the Final 2 sees Heidi as the only logical choice. Even those who are unaware of the Final 2 spoiler would likely choose either Heidi or Jenna as the one to go tonight (in typical Pagonging fashion).

    Having said that, how then could tonight's vote be considered "shocking" when everyone would be expecting it? MB has been known to swerve us in the past, but for some reason I really do think tonight's vote will involve something more unexpected.

    Unless, of course, something happens over the course of the episode to significantly alter our current perception of player's positions within the tribe. For example, suppose at this point Heidi is believed to be the logical choice to be booted. But, over the course of the show, she and Jenna immediately form a new alliance with Christy, Butch and Matthew to turf Rob. We are lead to believe Rob will be given the axe, but when the votes are counted, Christy, Butch and Matt betray Heidi and vote her out. In that way, Heidi could be the next to go, and the vote could be considered "shocking" as well.

    Just a thought...

  2. #92
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    I hope that happens. I'd love nothing more than for Jenna and Heidi to run to Christy for help only for Christy to screw them over.

    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


  3. #93
    Soccer Kicks Balls cali's Avatar
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    Yep, that would be so cool
    "Rice is great when you're hungry and want 2,000 of something' -- Mitch Hedberg

  4. #94
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    I would love for that to happen.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  5. #95
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    OK, I've got a new idea for how this is going to play out. And, if you're a Matt-lover, it's beautiful.

    My overall theory is based on the notion that Rob is still very much in control of the game, knows exactly how he wants it to play out, and is fully capable of arranging things the way he wants. As the game winds down, Rob must realize that a voting bloc of two is more and more influential. Therefore, he realizes he'll need to keep Matthew around as deeply into the game as possible. He also realizes the danger of having Jenna/Heidi in place. However, he is serious about sitting next to Jenna at the end of the game. So in the next episode, he watches as his Immunity heavy, Matt, leaves Heidi vulnerable and exposed. Teaming with Matt and Butch, Heidi is eliminated.

    After that, he turns his attention to Butch. If the penultimate IC is the usual Fallen Comrades type format, you have to favor Rob himself to win. Then he marshals Matt and Jenna to eliminate Butch.

    Now he's in what he considers to be his perfect situation. If he wins Immunity, he can just boot Matt and take his dummy, Jenna, to the Finals. If SHE wins, she takes HIM, thinking that he has betrayed so many people he can't possibly win. And if Matthew wins, he takes Rob due to his loyalty to his alliance-mate. Rob may even elect during the final Immunity to step aside, like Rich Hatch, so that he doesn't have to overtly stab Matthew in the back.

    But here's where the tables turn on Rob. Matt wins Immunity, but he's playing the game, too, and he recognizes that his chances of winning are greater sitting next to do-nothing Jenna than they are against his game mentor, the mastermind who has controlled the game all the way to the end. Matt delivers the final knife blow of the game, this one to his former master Rob, thereby paving his own path to the championship.

    Satisfies the Jenna/Matt F2 spoiler while acknowledging that Rob is still an outstanding player who fulfills his paranoid destiny of overplaying his hand and losing in "tragic" fashion.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  6. #96
    your ad here jodaar's Avatar
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    Love it Paulie. Student becomes master. Does anybody remember Matt's strategy from the Saturn DVD? (hate to bring that up again) Something to the effect of he would be naive, stupid, crazy, a leader, a follower, whatever best fit the situation. If all that's true, then Matt might be the best Survivor player ever.

  7. #97
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    Statistically speaking...

    Excellent analysis, Paulie! This is certainly a very plausible outcome, certainly as likely or probable as any others I've seen.

    If you believe the "CBS - Final 2" spoiler, then at the beginning of Episode 11, there were a total of 24 possible outcomes as far as who finishes in which position. With Jenna and Matt in the Final 2, there were four possibilities for the 4th jury member (Heidi, Butch, Rob or Christy). Which leaves three possibilities for the 5th jury member, two for the sixth and one for the seventh: 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24.

    Knowing now that Christy is gone and with only three other players left in the game, the number of possible outcomes drops by a factor of four from 24 to 6. They are (listing them in boot order):

    Possibility #1
    Heidi
    Butch
    Rob

    Possibility #2
    Heidi
    Rob
    Butch

    Possibility #3
    Butch
    Heidi
    Rob

    Possibility #4
    Butch
    Rob
    Heidi

    Possibility #5
    Rob
    Heidi
    Butch

    Possibility #6
    Rob
    Butch
    Heidi

    The first possibility I listed is the one Paulie subscribes to and certainly seems most likely. It would also be the most entertaining (along with #3) in that Rob gets the boot at the last possible moment! Rob was getting pretty choked when he thought he would finish 6th...I can imagine what kind of meltdown he would have if he were to make it to the Final 3 only to have victory snatched away from him at the last instant. Sadistic, maybe, but it would make for very entertaining TV!

    I'm gonna have to mull this over before I weigh in on any further theories I have. The last ones I've posted were certainly not on the mark! I tend to underestimate both Rob's cunning and Heidi and Jenna's dull-wittedness!
    Last edited by tmcrae; 05-02-2003 at 06:03 PM.

  8. #98
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    That's a great breakdown, tmcrae!

    It's also worth noting that some of the best non-winning players in the game's history have checked out in the #3 position: Lex, Kathy, uh...Jan.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  9. #99
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    Originally posted by Paulie
    That's a great breakdown, tmcrae!

    It's also worth noting that some of the best non-winning players in the game's history have checked out in the #3 position: Lex, Kathy, uh...Jan.

    Jan! Good burn!

  10. #100
    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    Dang, a guy who uses mathematical iterations to formulate a theory. I sense a disturbance in the Force.

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