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Thread: Survivor: Cook Islands - Confessional Count

  1. #1
    "Woooo.. shut up!" dustparticle05's Avatar
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    Survivor: Cook Islands - Confessional Count

    I've done this the past few seasons... counting up the number of confessionals each castaway is given in their edit per episode. I do it to see if we can find patterns in the editing throughout the season. Feel free to post your comments on what transpires in the thread. I'll be updating every week (and hopefully this season I'll actually finish up the whole season, because the last two seasons I stopped around the Final 5).

    Confessional criteria:
    --A video of a survivor speaking directly to the camera or sound duffing of a contestant speaking about tribal dynamics, challenges, other contestants, etc.
    --If 10 seconds elapses inbetween speaking time, two (or more, depending on the segment) confessionals are counted.
    --The above statement is nullified if another person has a confessional wedged inbetween (rarely happens within 10 seconds), there is a commercial break, or a "change of scenery" (such as a sunrise/sunset, animals, etc.) occurs within the episode.

    I'm still fiddeling with the castaway images... I kind of like the bright colors here, but I'm not sure if everyone else will. I'll see what else I can come up with, so the contestant images will probably look different by the end of the season.

    After Episode 1:


    STEPHANNIE - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    7/
    TOTAL - 7
    AVG PER EP - 7.00


    CAO BOI - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    6/
    TOTAL - 6
    AVG PER EP - 6.00


    JONATHAN - RAROTONGA TRIBE/EXILE ISLAND
    5/
    TOTAL - 5
    AVG PER EP - 5.00


    OZZY - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    3/
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    REBECCA - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    SEKOU - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    SUNDRA - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    YUL - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    3/
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    ADAM - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    BILLY - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    CANDICE - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    JESSICA - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    JP - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    PARVATI - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    BRAD - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    1/
    TOTAL - 1
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    CECILIA - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    1/
    TOTAL - 1
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    JENNY - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    1/
    TOTAL - 1
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    NATE - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    1/
    TOTAL - 1
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    BECKY - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    0/
    TOTAL - 0
    AVG PER EP - 0.00


    CRISTINA - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    0/
    TOTAL - 0
    AVG PER EP - 0.00

  2. #2
    FORT Aficionado echo226's Avatar
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    Thanks for doing this.

    I do it to see if we can find patterns in the editing throughout the season.
    Had you previously seen any pattern(s) developing at the time you stopped ?
    "The way to become boring is to say everything." Voltaire

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  3. #3
    I Think I Can Dance. Aota Bass's Avatar
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    Thanks! I like that with the colors it shows us clearly how each tribe fell as a whole.

    It's logical Manihiki has more in general since they were the focus of the last quarter of the show, figuring out who would go home, and that Stephannie as the swing vote would have the most, but it's interesting that within Manihiki Nathan was so ignored.

    Aitutaki is all over the place.

    As far as patterns/predictions, I would bet that Becky and Cristina are safe through at least the next episode, since they would probably get a bit more of a storyline going before their time on the island ended, and no confessionals at all so far bodes well for them.

    Cao Boi's coverage without playing any strategic role in last episode's vote means one of two things:
    -The producers want or expect him to be a viewer favorite, a real character, and are giving him lots of face time so we get invested in his long journey on the islands
    -He's leaving soon, so his story arc is accelerated

    I think both of those options are highly likely given what we've seen so far.
    Last edited by Aota Bass; 09-16-2006 at 10:38 AM.
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  4. #4
    "Woooo.. shut up!" dustparticle05's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by echo226 View Post
    Had you previously seen any pattern(s) developing at the time you stopped ?
    The thing that's stood out to me and others is that once the season gets going, a large spike in a single contestant's confessionals is usually not a good sign for them. It usually means that their story is climbing up to it's climax at that point and then they are usually gone a few episodes later. Of course, there have been exceptions. In Guatemala, Morgan was voted out and didn't have a single confessional in her final episode!

    Here's the counts from where I stopped last season (the week after Courtney was voted off): Confessional Tallies - Survivor: Panama, Exile Island
    Last season's editing wasn't quite as obvious as prior seasons. Shane, Sally, and Nick all had spikes with their confessional count towards the end of their game... Aras was steady the whole way through, as was Cirie for the most part. Courtney and Bruce both fluctuated quite a bit.

    And from Guatemala: Confessional Tallies (up through Final 5). Gary, Judd, Bobby Jon, Brian, and Brandon all had their confessional counts go up a few episodes before they were voted out. Lydia had the most invisible edit of all the survivors (5 episodes with NO confessionals and 4 episodes with just a single confessional) so that basically told us that she was not going to win.

  5. #5
    Leo
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    Thanks for doing this again, dustparticle05.

    Not much to be read in the tea leaves so far. I'm a bit surprised we didn't see more from Nate, though.

  6. #6
    Cy Young 2010 Mariner's Avatar
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    I love the way you've colored the photos this time dustparticle. I'll be interested to see if any different patterns develop this time.
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  7. #7
    FORT Fogey Cornedbeef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dustparticle05 View Post
    The thing that's stood out to me and others is that once the season gets going, a large spike in a single contestant's confessionals is usually not a good sign for them. It usually means that their story is climbing up to it's climax at that point and then they are usually gone a few episodes later. Of course, there have been exceptions. In Guatemala, Morgan was voted out and didn't have a single confessional in her final episode!

    Here's the counts from where I stopped last season (the week after Courtney was voted off): Confessional Tallies - Survivor: Panama, Exile Island
    Last season's editing wasn't quite as obvious as prior seasons. Shane, Sally, and Nick all had spikes with their confessional count towards the end of their game... Aras was steady the whole way through, as was Cirie for the most part. Courtney and Bruce both fluctuated quite a bit.

    And from Guatemala: Confessional Tallies (up through Final 5). Gary, Judd, Bobby Jon, Brian, and Brandon all had their confessional counts go up a few episodes before they were voted out. Lydia had the most invisible edit of all the survivors (5 episodes with NO confessionals and 4 episodes with just a single confessional) so that basically told us that she was not going to win.
    I could understand why Morgan didn't have any confessionals as she was the first one voted out. That should have no bearing on any pattern(s) that develop by the confessionals.

  8. #8
    Waiting for my fairytale! FumaLover's Avatar
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    I personally like the colors added to the pictures, nice organizational touch!
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    FORT Fan gemgirlco.com's Avatar
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    Thanks for doing doing. I love looking at number and statistics so I find this stuff very interesting.

  10. #10
    "Woooo.. shut up!" dustparticle05's Avatar
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    Castaways are sorted based on total number of confessionals. In the case of ties, the person with the most confessionals in the most recent episode will be displayed first.

    After Episode 2:


    OZZY - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    3/7
    TOTAL - 10
    AVG PER EP - 5.00


    YUL - PUKA PUKA TRIBE/EXILE ISLAND
    3/5
    TOTAL - 8
    AVG PER EP - 4.00


    JONATHAN - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    5/3
    TOTAL - 8
    AVG PER EP - 4.00


    CAO BOI - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    6/2
    TOTAL - 8
    AVG PER EP - 4.00


    STEPHANNIE - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    7/1
    TOTAL - 8
    AVG PER EP - 4.00


    CRISTINA - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    0/6
    TOTAL - 6
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    BILLY - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    2/4
    TOTAL - 6
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    NATE - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    1/3
    TOTAL - 4
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    JP - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    2/2
    TOTAL - 4
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    REBECCA - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/1
    TOTAL - 4
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    SUNDRA - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/1
    TOTAL - 4
    AVG PER EP - 2.00


    CECILIA - AITUTAKI TRIBE
    1/2
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 1.50


    JENNY - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    1/2
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 1.50


    JESSICA - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/1
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 1.50


    SEKOU - MANIHIKI TRIBE
    3/X
    TOTAL - 3
    AVG PER EP - 3.00


    BECKY - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    0/2
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    ADAM - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/0
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    CANDICE - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/0
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    PARVATI - RAROTONGA TRIBE
    2/0
    TOTAL - 2
    AVG PER EP - 1.00


    BRAD - PUKA PUKA TRIBE
    1/0
    TOTAL - 1
    AVG PER EP - 0.50

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