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Thread: Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Episode 12) - Just how much is a bazillion?

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    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Episode 12) - Just how much is a bazillion?

    Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Twelve
    Just how much is a bazillion?

    The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Alinta tribe. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?

    Well, we are down to the final five, and despite MBís efforts to fool us in the previews, I expect the next boot will be Julie. However, if Chris and Julie do have some kind of actual agreement, then they may choose to rope in Eliza and go after Scout or Twila. I just donít think that would be a wise move for Chris or Eliza though, as Twila and Scout do indeed make a far better final four combo. This week we change formats, and will look at some key questions:

    Was booting Amy the right choice?

    Yes, definitely. She is a strong player, and an influential one. Twila and Scout toppled her world, but Chris and Eliza were there too, and the longer you keep Ami around, the more time she has to stir up trouble, especially when it gets down to five players. Despite the editing, I really had no doubt that Eliza was going to boot Ami. I think she had already considered the backlash that would soon follow that vote.

    I found it somewhat ironic that Ami tried to claim loyalty, and play the ďI saved you a bazillion timesĒ card when she was put in the position she was in due to her own desire to break the pact and go after Eliza.

    Why then all the female bonding and apologies to Ami?

    First, I am sure she actually does feel bad. It is not like Scout and Twila have treated her with anything but disdain up until the day they needed her vote. Eliza is young, constantly talking, and probably a bit flaky, this is true, however, the major mistake I think the players are making here is assuming Eliza is not smart and needs to be led on in the game. I donít think that is the case. I believe she weighed her options fully here, and would have been more than happy to jump again if she felt it would make her case to the finals easier. Whatever her other faults may be, she is playing a clearheaded game and is not purely driven by emotion, which is the trap Twila and Ami have fallen into, and probably Scout too.

    Given all that, I think Elizaís discussions with Ami were far more nefarious in nature. Eliza must know at this point she has an excellent chance of making the finals. First, if they dump Julie this week, then you can argue she is the strongest physical threat left in the game for the endurance immunity challenge. Secondly, given she has been on the block for eviction throughout the entire game, and I feel many folks will think she is a good choice to take to the final two.

    What would it take for Julie to save herself?

    She has to win immunity.

    Now, if Julie wants to start playing the game again, she would do well to think about driving a wedge between Twila and Eliza. With five left, she only has to split off one of the enemy to continue on in the game.

    She would do well to try to get in good with Scout and Twila. We already know Scout and Eliza are not best buddies, and now the previews say that Twila and Eliza are not going to get along. Julie has her opportunities, but her problem is getting back into the game and playing politics. This episode Twila and Scout were openly talking about going after Ami and worrying about Elizaís loyalty. They had this discussion right in front of Julie. That is just not wise on the part of Scout and Twila. However, Julie didnít even get involved. At a minimum a smart player would see the implications of what was unfolding and began the process of trying to save her own skin. Instead she seemed to just sit there. She has no such luxury this week.

    Why is Chris still here?

    The same question that Jeff had at tribal, and it is a good one. The irony of this season is that Chris was easily the best Survivor player of the men who went to Vanuatu. However, he avoided early boot when he completely failed in the first immunity challenge, and then later somehow survived the testosterone purge led by Ami. In this case he had to do nothing but wait for the game to come to him. In fact, he is my second choice for the final two now, and I think it is time to prepare for the possibility of Eliza/Chris at the end, but all he has done is let the ladies kill each other.

    Should Twila feel guilty about her promise?

    Of course not. After all, she didnít claim her son was dead or some JFP comment like that. No, she merely lied, as has everyone there, and everyone who makes it far in Survivor. I am really sick and tired of people trying to claim they played the game with integrity. Please. Twila is not in Vanuatu to earn Amiís respect. She is there to win, and while her comments back at Ami during tribal council were just as vindictive as Amiís, they were right on point. She out played Ami, and that is the point of the game.

    Lying to get ahead of the game is nothing new, and outwit is in the freaking logo of the show, so no one should feel guilty about it. That doesnít mean though that she has a free pass here. The most intriguing part of the game is that you could be the best player remaining, but if you anger the jury then you could lose anyhow. Twila needs to watch her attitude, and telling Ami ďscrew youĒ might have been many of our sentiments at home, but it is not good game play at all, and should she make the final two, she could pay a heavy price in votes for it.

    Why is Scout still here?

    Thatís the better question Jeff should have asked. My answer?

    Damned if I know.

    Seriously though, I think she has been good at nurturing alliances for her purposes, and staying out of the firing line. Ami tried to turn the crosshairs on Scout, but it was too little, too late. That is how the game should be played. All that said, she needs to go, and fast. Were she actually able to make the finals, she would end up being the most undeserving winner ever in this game, in my opinion of course, and there is some esteemed company in that group, starting with Vecepia.

    I suspect though that all of the remaining players know they cannot risk keeping her around, and if Julie is gone this week, then I expect Scout to go the following .

    We are almost done

    This has been largely a snooze fest of a season, not withstanding the last couple shows. I am hopeful the final five keep scheming, and perhaps there is yet another twist or two to be had.

    I Guess That Didnít Work

    Ami did try to stir things up before her boot. I also think she successfully targeted the one person who would be receptive to a move. However, it is telling that she had no active allies (Julie tried to hide during the entire episode) left. Ami obviously lost the game the week before when Leann left, and given little hope, she tried and failed.

    Ami was a strong player both physically and mentally. She continued to fight right up to the end. I have a lot of respect for her game play. All that said, I was appalled with her departure. Rather than accepting that she was outmaneuvered . . . rather than admitting she herself was getting ready to backstab Eliza, so claiming the ethical high ground would be seen as a bit silly . . . rather than continuing to follow through on the boot of Chris . . . she deluded herself into thinking she played a clean game, and was somehow wronged by Twila.

    She reminded me of Lex who foolishly gave into Rahbís request to keep Amber around, and predictably was backstabbed later for it. Lex was mad too, but even he didnít say he wanted to drown his opponent. I was hoping she would accept her own misplays for the reason she was leaving. That didnít happen, and her exit speech was one of the most embarrassing we have seen yet.

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
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    Horror of Horrors emjoi's Avatar
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    Okay, I'll throw in a bunch of things after listening to Ami being interviewed by Rich Hatch.
    Ami claims that her and Eliza were pretty close and friendly, and to be fair if wasn't Ami who pushed for Elizas eviction ever. The reason Eliza didn't go with Ami is the same reason Twila backed out of the first Coup attempt... the number meant the best they could hope for was a Draw, which no-one wants.

    Next, Ami claims that Julie and Chris were quite good friends on the show. Nothing to do with Bottom Baring... they just get along well. Chris will be the key next week as to which way the game will go, and I think he'll side with Julie and Eliza.

    Next, Ami claimed that Scout was actually brilliant at Outdoor Living. She could get fires going, organize building shelter and so on. And that's why people kept her around. But she has a Nasty-Nice way about her.... being able to say the meanest things in the sweetest way. There are far more fangs out for Scout than Twila. Scout will go next week.

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    eny
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    Got here as soon as I could Great thoughts. Pete sure is on the ball this season...

    I just have to say wow- did you have a bug planted in our living room? We had a long discussion on how Ami was Lex in (sort of) drag . I mean a few peircings and you are there. When the chips are down you play the integrity whiner game, but when you are in control it's slice & dice with no mercy. Lex=Ami. No I can't figure out why Twila OR Chris are still here. Chris should have been #1 boot.

    Woo Hoo Bill !

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    I Think I Can Dance. Aota Bass's Avatar
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    So you're predicting an Eliza/Chris final 2? Interesting... I can totally see it happening.

    It seems to me that Chris's chances of winning in the final 2 against pretty much anyone are very good, because the only person he backstabbed was Sarge, who would vote for him anyway- no one holds any grudge against him. If I were in Julie's position I'd try to get the girls to knock him out because he's a major threat. At this point the alliances are so odd...
    And I sing sometimes like my life is at stake because you're only as loud as the noises you make.

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    PWS
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    Quote Originally Posted by emjoi
    Okay, I'll throw in a bunch of things after listening to Ami being interviewed by Rich Hatch.

    Next, Ami claimed that Scout was actually brilliant at Outdoor Living. She could get fires going, organize building shelter and so on. And that's why people kept her around. .
    Well, that explains something that people have kept asking over and over. I was beginning to think she was more of a Svengali than Ami!

    Great analysis as usual, Pete!

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    Retired! hepcat's Avatar
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    Bill, great job on the analysis this week. I agree that Ami's departure reeked more than usual of sour grapes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Secondly, given she [Eliza] has been on the block for eviction throughout the entire game, and I feel many folks will think she is a good choice to take to the final two.
    This is one of the things I am finding so tricky about this season of Survivor. I don't know if people consider Eliza a good choice for the final two, because in some ways she has been pretty tight with the other women (with the footage of beauty treatments, joking about how small and skinny she's getting). Is she univerally hated more than Scout at this point? I'm not sure. She's been on the block many times, but she's survived the block many times too.

    I'm confusing myself. I'll leave the hard stuff to the experts. Good job, Bill!
    You've gotta hustle if you want to earn a dollar. - Boston Rob

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    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    Thanks, Bill!

    I'm expecting the next IC to be bug eating. I would be delighted if they dropped this challenge, but that's not my expectation. I believe Chris wins it.

    Chris made a revealing speech to Eliza at reward, indicating that she, Scout and Twila are his F4, and Eliza is his choice for F2. She kept her mouth shut, which was smart.

    While I believe that Chris was making his best assessment, it is wrong. If Julie goes at F5, I believe Scout and Twila tell Eliza that they are voting for Chris, and she can either vote him out or take a chance on the purple rock. We've seen already how Eliza will perform in that case.

    No, Chris needs to get rid of Twila next. That said, he probably won't do this. Assume for a moment it goes this way. Julie would be too tough in F2 for anybody, so she is an easy boot at F4.

    I expect Eliza to win the endurance challenge at F3. I think she beats Scout in F2, hands down. She may lose to Chris. Would she make the correct decision? I don't know.

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    Endlessly ShrinkingViolet's Avatar
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    Thanks for the great analysis, Bill.

    Whatever her other faults may be, she is playing a clearheaded game and is not purely driven by emotion, which is the trap Twila and Ami have fallen into, and probably Scout too.
    Eliza is an emotional person, which she doesn't hide very well, but I also don't believe her thinking is driven by her emotion. She is very intelligent and playing a smart game.

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    Combat Missions Fan Wolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    I am really sick and tired of people trying to claim they played the game with integrity. Please. Twila is not in Vanuatu to earn Amiís respect. She is there to win, and while her comments back at Ami during tribal council were just as vindictive as Amiís, they were right on point. She out played Ami, and that is the point of the game.
    Thaaaaank Youuuu for expressing so well how I, and I'm sure lots of others here, feel about those players that get so offended when the tables are turned on them. It's a freaking game!!! Why don't they get that through their thick heads.

    Didn't Sandra also swear on her sons? Of course, that was to JFP, so that was more than okay.

    As you stated, Eliza is proving to be a lot smarter than some of us gave her credit for. She's using her emotional ties to the others to tug at their hearts-strings, as we all saw with Ami at TC. Let's see if she can control her emotional outbursts IF she makes it to the F2.

    Thank you Bill for such a fine analysis.

  10. #10
    Leo
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    Great analysis, Bill.

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