+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 16

Thread: Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 9) - Lopevi knows how to Pagong

  1. #1
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Orygun
    Posts
    12,166

    Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 9) - Lopevi knows how to Pagong

    Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Four
    Lopevi knows how to Pagong

    The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the tribes. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?

    Week Four of the season was a little anti-climatic. Everyone is getting ready for the mix or merge (more on that below) and the within the tribes themselves, the alliance lines could not be drawn any clearer. Therefore, despite MB spending much of the show trying to convince us otherwise, we all knew that if the guys lost, then Brady was going home, and if the ladies lost, then either Julie or Eliza would be leaving.

    Not withstanding the exhibition game that was All-Stars, I think we have to remember how far strategy has come in the game of Survivor over nine editions. I have season one on DVD (and recommend getting it, if you donít yet have it). If you compare the play of someone like Dolly to that of Sean from S1 (who went deep in the game), you will find that most everyone in the game now, even if they execute poorly on a plan, knows the concepts of how to play and what actions will get you into trouble. Even Dolly knew just prior to trial council that she had gotten herself in danger. The overall skill of the participants in terms of game play seems to be elevated, as you would expect.

    In general, that is a good thing for the show itself, but there are some downsides. One such downside occurred this week. The show was relatively boring because we knew what would happen regardless of the immunity challenge outcome. There was no tension for the viewer, and I am not sure if anyone, besides maybe Scout or Chad (now my favorite) has a rooting section.

    These people all came to win, as opposed to All-Stars, where most came to look good on camera. The difference being, that if you were Brady in All-Stars, you might have been able to sway votes emotionally or by putting someone in a position to look good by saving you or by just taking advantage of previous grudges. In this version of the game, the majority guys have proven that they will not give up that advantage no matter what. It is a free ticket to deep in the game and a better shot at a million bucks. Lopevi has executed perhaps the most effective Pagong-ing since the original Pagong.

    To sum up, MB was about a week late in instituting the first mix up (and I believe it will be a tribe shuffle, not a merge). Mixing this week would have worked perfectly, especially with equal numbers overall, but creating a potential majority of either sex in the new tribes. However, as MB insists, the timing of such twists is set before the game even begins. Many folks think that MB uses a very heaving editing hand in the show, but this week would seem to support the idea that they really do schedule the twists before the game begins, and they stick to that schedule.

    In any event, the shuffle will likely occur this week according to the previews, so letís take a look at where everyone stands after the initial thinning of the flock.

    Yasur

    I thought one of the most humorous conversations in Survivor history occurred when Eliza (a previous alliance backstabber) confronted Lisa (the latest alliance backstabber) over her betrayal in the vote for Mia. There was no need to watch the Presidential Election Debate last night, for these two mimicked it perfectly, with Lisa blaming her actions on Eliza, while Eliza in turn felt no hypocrisy in calling out Lisa for essentially doing the same thing she had done the day before.

    I was laughing so hard, I almost spilled my Starbucks, and that is when all the fun would have stopped.

    Seriously though, I have to admit Eliza has a point in that her betrayal was based on protecting herself from elimination, which was very different from Lisaís move. In terms of the Survivor morality scale, she has the better case. Those of you who follow the Pete Report know though that I could care less what the moral scales say, as this is a game, not a life test. So, I have to say both of their moves had good value from a game perspective, and it wouldnít surprise me if they both worked together again down the road. The bottom line is, they did what they had to do to stay, and now the mix is coming, so they both could come out of it in an even stronger position.

    Of the other ladies, I am still focused on Scout because her situation is most interesting to me. She needs a very good break when it comes to splitting up the tribes. I think that if she can end up on the tribe with the majority of women, and exclude Julie or Eliza, and frankly John as well, then I feel she is safe to the merge, where going under the radar will server her well. However, if she is stuck on a tribe with the majority of men, or equal, and/or Julie/Eliza join her, then she will be hard pressed to avoid a quick boot.

    So will she be lucky or not? Maybe it will not be luck. Here is some wild speculation, that will probably be completely wrong, but MB has tried several methods for tribe mix-ups. There was the two youngíns meeting up in the Amazon followed by picking teams alternating men and women. Then there was the complete failure of the pick-a-buff-out-of-the-urn approach of All-Stars. I think MB, as in both previous cases, really wants an actual mix up, including mixing the sexes. The best way to do that was with the team captain approach. We did the young people already, what if he took the route of having the elders meet? If so, Scout could choose her own team, and that would help her a lot.

    Again though, I am probably wrong, and they likely will just turn over the disks they stand on to see which tribe they are in.

    Twila needs to be in Scoutís tribe after a mix, or she is toast. She is not well liked by many, and the one thing Mia said that was correct is that Twila is playing the work card, and that history is not going to carry any weight with a new mixed tribe.

    Ami quickly returned to her near invisibility this episode. You see her in a lot of scenes, but she rarely speaks. That is not necessarily bad, as we could expect to see her quite a bit given MBís predilection for showing ďnatureís beautyĒ on screen as often as possible, but if you notice, these gratuitous shots are not Ami alone. Instead it is usually Ami being involved in all key conversations, but as an observer. She is not necessarily safe right now, but she does have good knowledge of all workings in the Yasur tribe, and that information could serve her well post mix.

    Whereas Ami is using under the radar to stay low while still being involved with the game, Leann has taken it to an all new art form. There have been entire episodes already where we barely see her. Now usually that can mean good things and imply a long stay on the island, but I have to admit, I just donít get that feeling from Leann. I think no matter what, the tribe relationships post-mix are going to leave her as an outsider, and a visit to Loser Lodge sooner, rather than later. A real warning sign for her boot will be an episode where she gets a lot of camera time out of the blue. It is the kiss of death.

    Lopevi

    Credit goes to Sarge and Chris for keeping this alliance together despite obvious cracks involving Rory. Now they need to try and keep as loyal as possible, despite the reality that soon they are likely to lose two or three of their team, and perhaps even split up themselves.

    I have to laugh a bit at John getting frustrated with his tribe always booting the ďthin, athletic typesĒ. He and Brady both kept trying to sell the idea that the guys will not be able to compete if they donít have the stud athletes like he and Brady. Really John? Which show are you watching? So far we are seeing that athleticism, while nice, is secondary to leadership and organization skills, as well as problem solving. The argument is weak (no pun intended) and in fact, works against you now as the team challenges are changing with the mix, and further, the merge will follow in a few weeks after that. Now is a very good time to boot John. John will be saved by the mix up though, and given a second chance. He made the self-preservation attempt vote by turning on Brady and joining the gang. I still donít seem him going far though.

    The second most entertaining part of the show was Travis, and his emotional response to missing his family. Rory counseled him on not giving the appearance of being flaky. Travis showed that despite his unhappy state, his mind was still in the game when he countered Rory with his own question about flakiness, ďlike going off by yourself?Ē Touchť! I am starting to like Travis. There is a lot more going on in his mind than reliving the exciting days of pro-wrestling, or rethinking his choice of t-shirts for the show.

    I donít see Chad in any danger. He seems likeable, he promotes teamwork, and he can more than hold his own despite the artificial limb. As opposed to Leann, the lack of any story focused on him does bode well for a long stay.

    Rory knows he has taken votes at every tribal council the men have been too. Yes, he picked his alliance wisely, but surely he has to realize that he is now probably in worse shape than John. He needs to rehabilitate himself post mix up.

    I Guess That Didnít Work

    Brady tried to save himself, but much like JP before him, it was too little, too late, and probably directed wrong. He, JP, and John K should have tried to contact a low level member of the Fab Five, such as Rory, to try and drive a split. Going to Sarge wasnít going to work, and it was proven last week.

    Brady took his desire to drive a wedge between Sarge and Rory a little bit further though. I am pretty convinced he not only tried to throw the immunity challenge, but he actively sabotaged it. Looking back at the video, Brady is first to begin openly mocking Rory, and then stirs the pot further with side conversations. By the time it was done, everyone was going their own direction. Back at camp, Brady then tried to focus blame on Rory as they sat around the fire.

    It was a bold move, and if it worked, we would be singing the praises of it, but Brady was too far gone to recover at that point, and it would have been far better to try hard to win, push off tribal council another three days and hope for the mix up to occur.

    Next Week

    Time mix or merge. The new game begins next week.

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  2. #2
    Selling New Machines mrcorkles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,655
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Not withstanding the exhibition game that was All-Stars, I think we have to remember how far strategy has come in the game of Survivor over nine editions
    Very true,indeed. Watching the first Survivor,I am reminded that in the beginning,there was no clear way for each individual to vote. Alliances weren't developed until near the middle of the game,so people voted more with their heart than with strategy. That simply does not happen now...as you said Bill,Dolly knew that she was in trouble and was a possible swing vote,it just didn't work out for her as she was *ahem* outwitted by Eliza. How frightening is that sentence?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    I was laughing so hard, I almost spilled my Starbucks, and that is when all the fun would have stopped.


    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    I don’t see Chad in any danger. He seems likeable, he promotes teamwork, and he can more than hold his own despite the artificial limb.
    I'm hoping that Chad is in it for the long haul.

    I believe that there is a danger in playing an individual game too early. it didn't work for Lex in All-Stars,and I don't think it will work for Lopevi.

    Praise,praise,praise! Bill,you have to know that you rule,if you don't...well that would make me very sad!
    Last edited by mrcorkles; 10-09-2004 at 08:04 PM.

    Can't take a good day without a bad one
    Don't feel just to smile until I had one
    Where did I learn?
    I make a fuss about a little thing
    The rhyme is losing to the riddling

  3. #3
    Retired! hepcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    in a good place
    Posts
    27,046
    Bill, great analysis. I always come away from your reports with new insights on the game. If it weren't for you, Fluff & Paulie I would be turning the channel.
    You've gotta hustle if you want to earn a dollar. - Boston Rob

  4. #4
    where's my rose garden? Covaleskie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    117
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Brady took his desire to drive a wedge between Sarge and Rory a little bit further though. I am pretty convinced he not only tried to throw the immunity challenge, but he actively sabotaged it. Looking back at the video, Brady is first to begin openly mocking Rory, and then stirs the pot further with side conversations. By the time it was done, everyone was going their own direction. Back at camp, Brady then tried to focus blame on Rory as they sat around the fire.

    It was a bold move, and if it worked, we would be singing the praises of it, but Brady was too far gone to recover at that point, and it would have been far better to try hard to win, push off tribal council another three days and hope for the mix up to occur.
    I hadn't noticed Brady's actions during the challenge, only the side conversation with Sarge before, and the blaming afterwards. Keen eye, as always.
    There's always one in every bunch.

  5. #5
    Horror of Horrors emjoi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    1,023
    The trouble with the idea of Brady trying to ally with Rory is that it would only give Brady one more vote. He's still lose and Rory would be exposed, which he wouldn't want.

    Getting Sarges confidence means getting Chris & Travis and Chad on your side, Gettin' in with the In Crowd. Which I sort of wish he had succeeded in. A Brady-Lea-Chris core would be physically and mentally very strong.

  6. #6
    Courtesy and Goodwill Mantenna's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Age
    28
    Posts
    8,504
    Great report, Emperor Bill! You had me rolling at the very title!

  7. #7
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Orygun
    Posts
    12,166
    Quote Originally Posted by emjoi
    The trouble with the idea of Brady trying to ally with Rory is that it would only give Brady one more vote. He's still lose and Rory would be exposed, which he wouldn't want.

    Getting Sarges confidence means getting Chris & Travis and Chad on your side, Gettin' in with the In Crowd. Which I sort of wish he had succeeded in. A Brady-Lea-Chris core would be physically and mentally very strong.
    My thoughts here were that Brady, JP, and JK needed to consider approaching Rory before they began to get kicked off one by one. Rory was clearly the low man on the alliance totem pole, he could have been swayed, forcing a tie vote, or even better. They tried twice to win over Sarge. It didn't work. Brady was desperate by the end (and rightly so).

    Secondly, they failed to realize that being physically strong this far into the game is a threat, not an asset. Their argument was focused wrong imho.
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  8. #8
    FORT Fan ManySkills's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    baltimore
    Posts
    315
    My take on the Lopevi chaotic immunity challenge:

    Perhaps subconciously, perhaps not, the A-type personalities like Brady were unable to defer leadership to Rory, especially when Rory didn't clearly take charge.

    Alpha types will often jump in and take over if they perceive a void in leadership.

    I saw Brady's attempt to direct the group as his natural personality emerging, his natural reaction to such a situation. I'll bet he runs all the events at family picnics too.

    Heh.

  9. #9
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Orygun
    Posts
    12,166
    I know Brady has a lot of fans, and he seemed like a decent guy, but I am just not seeing his departure as a mistake on the Fab Five's part, or necessarily a big deal in terms of the game. He made his choice early on whom to align with, and it turned out to be an exceptionally poor decision. He waited far too long to do something about it, and in the end, it cost him the game.

    It's a bummer, but it happens nearly every season to someone.
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  10. #10
    LG.
    LG. is offline
    FORT Writer LG.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    frozen tundra
    Posts
    14,060
    and then they give us the great "those knuckleheads voted off the best person" speech that Hunter made famous.
    Help fight cystic fibrosis or just learn more about it at the cystic fibrosis foundation website, www.cff.org and help give my little guy a better future.

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.