Pelican Pete Report - Episode Seven
Yawn sort of rhymes with Pagong
The Pelican Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Chapera and Mogo Mogo tribes. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling? Please remember, this is not meant to be a recap. For that, you will want to read fluff’s outstanding weekly recap, and for added fun, be sure to check out Paulie’s Precap.
This week the two tribes dealt with MB’s latest twist, that being a combined immunity/reward challenge. It was a good race too, but Chapera came out on top. The Mogo’s were forced to tribal council with the further handicap of not having Kathy in camp. Lex took advantage of the situation to take control of the tribe.
This was, in my opinion, a very boring episode entertainment wise, yet it was also a pivotal show, in terms of strategy, for this season. Why pivotal? Because of the great questions and situations now in place. Do I have answers to all of those questions? Of course not, but as always, I do have opinions.
First, anyone bothering to read this knows the danger of entering the final merge with your tribe at a voting disadvantage. Yes, I still think that even though this is all-stars, and these folks have their own real life friendships, none of that matters if Chapera has an advantage going into the merge. They will Pagong the Mogo’s right out of the game, smiling, laughing, and drinking all the way. Why? Because Rob wants it that way, and everyone there is drinking the Rob kool-aid.
Secondly, given the risk involved, did Lex pick the right time to make his move? Finally, given Kathy’s expressed desire to partner with Lex, would she have gone along with the Colby boot? Or might she have thought of another angle? Let’s look at the Mogo’s in detail.
Lex made his power move and ousted what he perceived to be his biggest rival in the game. Colby is now gone, but Lex’s move was designed with the idea that the merge cannot be far off. The obvious risk is that the merge does not occur this week, in which case, he may have severely hurt his tribe’s chances to win a physical immunity challenge. That would lead to the Mogo’s being down two going into an obvious merge situation the following week, and that spells doom.
I think Lex made a mistake here that will cost him the game. Don’t misunderstand me though, I think Colby was more than deserving to be booted, and he really doesn’t have cause to feel betrayed given what he did to Rich the last time around the fire. Colby could have learned a lot from the masterful way that Lex played it. Lex personally went out on the limb to talk to Shii Ann and Jerri. He definitely knew of Jerri’s blind hate for Colby, and probably overhead enough of Colby and Shii Ann’s situation to rightly expect her to go along with him. Further, with Kathy gone, that was one less person to convince, and one less mouth to keep quiet until the trap was sprung. He executed his plan to perfection. It was just a bad idea.
I think it is far too dangerous in this version of the game to assume a merge. Plus, it is far too dangerous to hurt your own tribe’s chances to compete when there was an easy obvious boot remaining in Jerri. Lex decided to gamble, and to be fair, he probably assumes that he and Ethan are at least equal to Rob and Rupert in the challenges. So it is not as outrageous as it seems. However, the Chapera’s have an overall better team top to bottom, and I think Alicia gets underestimated a lot of the time. Lex just booted his strongest competitor and he will live or die with consequences of the gamble. I am sorry to say I think the answer is die, and I wouldn’t be surprised now if he is the first member of the Jury.
So what of Jerri? Well, apparently the kinder, gentler Jerri that we are being shown is not matching up to the opinions of her tribe mates. They all seem to hate her, for whatever reason. I expect Mogo Mogo to lose this week, and I expect Jerri to go in a unanimous vote. Just a guess, as obviously, anything can happen.
Meanwhile Shii Ann decided to follow along with Lex’s plan. I know there are a lot of Shii Ann fans on the board, and many of them were celebrating Colby’s departure, which is fine. I love watching the folks I don’t like getting their torch snuffed too, so cherish the moment. Sadly though, Shii Ann went along with a plan that probably eliminates her chance to win as well.
Here is what bothers me about Shii Ann this season. She showed herself in Thailand to be a capable strategist. She wasn’t going to win there either, as her own tribe was out to boot her, but she clearly understood the game, and tried to win. She merely got caught up in a great twist. Without that, she probably made the jury at least. However, in this version, ever since Jenna’s departure, she has not been articulating a strategy, or at least one we have seen. She doesn’t seem to be trying to win. Whereas with Jerri, I expected nothing other than feeling disappointed that a better player like Helen didn’t have her spot, I definitely expected more out of Shii Ann. So far it isn’t there. In fact, she merely lamented this week that Kathy wasn’t there to tell her what to do. I don’t care how you cut it, that is not good game play in my book. At this point, she needs to stay close to Kathy, and hope for good opportunities post merge.
Ethan once again finds himself in a lonely place. Lex didn’t trust him enough to tell him the plan to boot Colby, so he voted for Jerri. Further, the reason the Mogo’s went to tribal council pretty much rests on his shoulders. He broke an oar trying to pound a wooden brace in, and then he squandered a large lead in the challenge. He apologized for it, but that isn’t what saved him. It probably was going to be Jerri even if Lex didn’t launch Operation Exterminate Razor Boy. Ethan is now on the outs. However, in many ways his position in Mogo is even stronger, given that they cannot afford to lose a strong challenge performer, even if he hasn’t really been one consistently. Ethan may survive to the merge, but not long thereafter. Thanks Lex!
So what will Kathy think of all of this? I am looking forward to Wednesday this week simply because I want to see how she will react to Colby’s boot. She has expressed her loyalty to Lex, so at first thought, I assumed that she would go along with it. However, Kathy is a good strategic thinker, and I can’t help but wonder if she would have been the one to point out to Lex that what he was proposing was very dangerous, and could be delayed to a point when Mogo had the advantage. I don’t know, but I am hoping MB shows us the answer.
Kathy was also selected to crossover during the reward phase of the challenge. She seemed to integrate herself well within Chapera, and I trust she is smart enough to know that they will chew her up and spit her out post merge without so much as a second thought. Despite all her talk about when to “swing over” to the other side, I think she is wise enough to know that swinging over only buys her time to make something happen. She would still be low on the totem pole.
As Amber says, the Chapera’s are the happy tribe, and why shouldn’t they be? While they seem to glide along singing happy songs, the Mogo’s are tearing themselves to pieces. How can they achieve this remarkable harmony?
Well, all you need to do is throw Rob in the middle of a pack of clueless game players.
I continue to be amazed that the entire tribe simply goes along with King Rob, and Alicia and Tom have not yet expressed any desire to know who Rob thinks he is taking to the final four. This is not summer camp, it is a game. I would love to see someone… anyone… in Chapera, besides Rob, actually think about strategy. Once these folks get rid of the majority of Mogo post merge, there will be some fun watching them all come to the slow realization that their happy tribe concept only led to them getting front row seats at the post show reunion special. I expect people to try to win, especially in all stars.
Rob is cruising, completely unchallenged for leadership, and his tribe is successful, so no challenge is on the horizon. He deserves a lot of credit for getting things to this point, but my praise is tempered by the knowledge that he never would have been able to pull this off in either of the other tribes from the beginning. Rob C’s complete collapse in this game was a gift from heaven for Rahb.
Amber continues to uhm… well Amber really contributed when she… hmmm… Amber was vital to the Chapera… well no, that wasn’t her. I guess you could say that Amber looks great. Good job Amber!
Seriously though, she is supporting Rob, and I expect she will stay loyal throughout. As other players drop out, the voting bloc of RhAmber becomes even more powerful with each passing week. If I were her, I would continue to play the same game, and re-evaluate what I am looking for in a relationship. If Amber and Rob continue to openly flaunt their coupling, while the other Chapera’s do nothing, I will be incredibly disappointed. I just cannot believe they allow this happen from a game play perspective. From a personal perspective, hey… have fun!
Rupert has reestablished himself as the silent fisherman. He is doing a good job this season in terms of keeping an eye on his true position in the game, versus what he thinks it should be because of his contributions. The alliance with Rob was wise, but I hope that he will figure that the alliance itself doesn’t give him a great chance at winning. He would be a good guy to try playing under the radar for a while and then looking for crossover help from someone like Kathy post-merge.
Big Tom was right. He is in danger of being replaced by Rupert. In fact, he already has been replaced, he just doesn’t know it. His time to go will come eventually, and I hope he is sober enough to walk off when it happens. In fact, I worry about him getting to close to that fire some nights… with that breath, he could light up his whole face instantly, and while that would make for good wholesome entertainment, I bet it would hurt a lot.
Amber needs to wake up and decide what she is here to accomplish. Make the jury? No problem, that is in the bag. Win the game? No chance at this point, and she should be thinking about that. She has time to save herself. She could pull a Lex, and look for a way to get votes against Rob. She could wait until post merge and find some alliance partners. Unfortunately I don’t foresee her doing that right now. I think she will stay loyal to Rob, with no guarantees in return, right up until she is surprised to find herself voted out. Another disappointment.
Jenna is still in the game. That is all.
I Guess That Didn’t Work
All was well until the Colbster decided to make his move against Rich. The idea itself wasn’t bad. I too would have kept Ethan over Rich. Colby just bungled the execution by failing to consult with Lex and Kathy. Plus he made it so it was no longer Ethan versus Rich, and instead Rich versus Colby. As Jerri will find soon, many times the person who wins the showdown vote one week, learns that they are only delaying their own demise by a few short days.
Colby further challenged Shii Ann about playing under the radar, and while what he said was true, it accomplished nothing in terms of the game, so it was best left unsaid if he had no intention of going after the Shii Devil. He didn’t go after her, and only made it easier for her to side with Lex this week.
Colby’s departure will impact the game, and Lex definitely executed a backstab on him. However, Colby brought it down on himself, and for that alone, he was a deserving boot.
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