Pelican Pete Report - Episode One
I don't trust any of you sons of guns!
Yes, much like everyone else involved with All Star Survivor, I too am back, this time with the Pelican Pete report. Now some might say that I am merely a simple man, who went from Piranha to Pirate to Pelican, and thus am stuck in P rut. But no, I assure you that while I am a simple man indeed, the idea for this title comes from our fearless site administrator, John. Oh, and trust me, when John has compromising photos of you, it is best to name the damn report anything he wishes.
Besides, Pelican Pete was inspiration to all of us in the Pearl Islands. Pete quickly assessed the quality of Morgan tribe members, their prospects in the game, and proceeded to scare the beejeebus out of Osten. You have to tip your hat to a bird that smart. In a nutshell, that is what I am here to do. Well, everything except for scaring Osten. I think it is probably time to leave that poor guy alone.
So for those who have not played the home game before, let me run down the ground rules. The Pelican Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Chapera, Mogo Mogo, and Saboga tribes. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?
This report is written completely based on my opinion. No, I donít have any deep cover operatives in Panama, nor do I have secret inside information, and I donít even admit to having voices in my head. This report is for entertainment only, and that would be my entertainment. I hope you like it too, but please, if you value your house, significant other, or any small children in your circle of loved ones, please donít go out and bet on the game based on anything I say here.
This is just what I think, based on what we see going on, and what info is released by CBS through Insider. I am not going to discuss spoilers, and while I may, or may not have seen the dozens already floating about, I do always try to keep things focused on what you see in the show to date. So this should be a safe spoiler zone.
Outside of that, I speculate and offer my opinion throughout, and that is the point of the article. If you disagree, that is fine, I am not claiming to be right. In fact, what makes Survivor popular on the boards is how well it lends itself to discussion about strategy, and Burnettís ability to highlight (some would say overly edit) the characters in the show to tell a story. I hope this report spurs additional discussions in the Survivor forum.
While we will discuss the show here, this is not meant to be a recap. For that you will want to read fluffís always outstanding recaps this season. I may speculate on upcoming boots, but that is pure speculation. If you are looking to know exactly who is gone, and in what bizarre manner, I refer you to the always hilarious Paulieís Precap, which is posted each week.
So, now that the required disclaimers and rules are out of the way, letís get down to business by taking a look at the tribes.
The first episode is usually difficult to gage in terms of future performance. However, in ASS, we know these people already. To me, the big question is: will those who previously lost change their strategies? I have a suspicion that those who do, will go farther than those who donít. We saw signs of this already in episode one.
Sue is in this tribe, and that spells conflict. Throw in a pinch of Aliciaís traditional kindness along with Rahb, who certainly isnít shy, and you have yourself a recipe for fireworks. Whoíd of thought it possible to build a tribe where Rob C. is the quiet one? I am still shaking my head.
Individually, the gaps in play are already showing themselves.
Sue Ė What are is she thinking? I donít care if Sue has swallowed axel grease with a rusty spoon in the past and feels that she is the toughest woman ever to storm ashore in this game. Did she not grasp the concept of brain parasites? Did you see the way Howard Dean acted after Iowa? Brain parasitesÖ they can really hurt you. Tossing aside the matter of her health, there remains the problem of surviving to the merge in this tribe. Sue is already committing several classic Survivor blunders, such as separating yourself from the tribe, and not assisting in daily tasks, like trying to get a fire going. You have no former winners in this tribe. Someone has to go, and these people are not going to keep her around for her cheery disposition.
Alicia Ė Can be best described as the only thing saving Sue. As I said above, I think several folks need to adjust their strategy to be successful, and Alicia so far is falling into even more confrontational behavior than before. Suffice to say that she is at no risk of needing to depart the island to pick up her award for diplomatic behavior. Alicia and Rahb got into it over the shelter and the fire (or lack thereof). She needs to make some friends, and somehow I see her and Sue working together. I think she is safe for now, as she is a ferocious competitor in the challenges and Sue doesnít quite bring that to the table. She does need to start scheming to go far in the game, as this tribe could gang up on her pre-merge.
Rahb Ė Another show, not another Rahb, and I am going to call him Rahb just because there are too many Robís in this tribe. He is still the same over-confident survivor that he was in his previous run. He is trying to assume the leadership role in the tribe, and it seems to be working. Further, he quickly went after Amber as an alliance partner on the first afternoon on the beach. So he has already mimicked his previous Sarah strategy, the question now is, will he also go after the other alpha male in the tribe to take him out of the game, ala Hunter? Who is that alpha male?
Rob C Ė He was pretty quiet in the opening episode, usually a sign of going far in the game. I am worried about Rob C though. I fear he and Rupert might be making the same mistake, that being overcorrecting their previous strategy. Rob has studied the game, he knows exactly how Rahb operates. Rob might think that Big Tom is the Hunter type character that Rahb will target, but I think it is Rob himself. Rahb would logically fear Robís game skills over Tomís. Sadly, Robís previous game play will work against him here, as I know if I were there, I would not trust him. He had better watch his back.
Tom Ė Was pretty much the invisible man this episode, but then, that is the Tom strategy. Build things, carry things, yearn for beans, and outlast everyone. With all the strong personalities in this tribe, that approach is going to work for him. He will need to stay in the loop enough to know who is on the outs, as the biggest mistake an under the radar player can make is being on the wrong side of the majority in voting, but I think Tom is very safe right now.
Amber - Looking good as alwaysÖ physically. Game wise, she has done very little so far. She did agree to ally with Rahb, and that is not a bad commitment to make. Rahb is good in the early game, and letís face it, Amber is in no danger of an early boot. However, she will need to think for herself at some point. I just havenít seen it yet.
The Mogoís have three of the people who think they are master strategists in this game. Rich and Lex have been reasonably successful in the past, to say the least, while Shii Ann was burned in Thailand by a twist. Immediately on arrival this tribe broke down into political division by sex, but it was Lex of all people who injected logic into the situation, noting that there will be time enough later for that kind of work, and rather than dwell on it, why donít they focus instead on winning a challenge or two?
Wise advice Lex.
Richard Ė I bet a lot of viewers had forgotten just how arrogant and diabolical Rich was, and is. Rich also wasted no time in getting naked, which is always disturbing. He spent the first couple of days being annoying, ignoring others, and otherwise assessing his tribe. Rich is many things, but stupid is not one of them. He has a plan, and it may not work, as he knows that previous winners, especially the Great Hatch, will be targets early and often, but rest assured, everything he is doing was pre-calculated.
I spent a lot of time during the show trying to figure out what he was up to. Why would he intentionally distance himself, and refuse to get a fire going (donít forget, Rich was fire-master in Survivor I). This seems to run counter to all common sense. Then it hit me. No, not something from the ceiling, though I really need to get that lamp fixed. I suspect that Rich wants everyone to be agitated and upset. He wants them to get dehydrated, tired, and hungry? But why? Because he knows as things sit now, he is clearly going home first chance they get. However, thirsty and hungry people tend to be a bit grumpy, and if he can foster an environment where people are getting on each otherís nerves, all while he is the calm peaceful one, then there is a chance that someone else becomes the target.
I think that is why he openly, and in a friendly manner, exposed the female alliance that was brewing. He didnít want to make the women mad, and he quickly agreed with Lex that they need to focus on challenges. However, the seed is planted. They guys might need Richard to survive, and look at that, Kathy and Shii Ann are already plotting against us, while we are building their shelter. He is a pain, but he does know how to play.
Make no mistake, Richard is not going to win. However, I think he might actually survive the first boot now, and that would be a significant victory.
Kathy Ė She was a good player in her first run around the Survivor world, but she made some silly mistakes here. Discussing alliances in the open, with Richard listening, was a poor move. She will need to spend some time mending fences, but I think she is safe for now, and remember, she recovered from a difficult start in her last Survivor experience. She will get her game on before it is all over.
Shii Ann Ė The funniest scene in the entire show was Jenna and Kathy walking up the beach getting ready to talk strategy, and sprinting out of the jungle chasing them comes Shii Ann. We didnít see a whole lot of her this show, but early signs are that she still is interested in scheming and strategy first, above all else. With this group, that could be a very dangerous tact. I think Shii Ann would be better served to stay in the background at least until Rich is gone. To stick your neck out now only plays into his strategy.
Colby Ė Same ole Colby. He is just a nice guy who has found himself in the middle of a pack of wolves. I loved him saying he didnít trust any of them. He was echoing the sentiments of everyone there, but was the only one to come out and say it. Oh, and he did so in a way that didnít offend anyone. Colby is not at risk, as they need him for challenges. However, he does need to get into the game and start making alliances, or he will not make it past the merge.
Playboy Jenna Ė Stood around in her bathing suit doing nothing really. In other words, she is following the same brilliant strategy that won her the Amazon game. I think Rich is looking to ensure Jenna goes before he does. Meanwhile, Jenna is looking to get back girl power feeling from the past. We shall see which strategy wins, but the first boot in this tribe will be one of the two.
Lex Ė Was right to return the focus of the tribe to the tasks at hand. Donít think he wasnít well cognizant of the implications of that situation though. Lex wants to keep winning challenges, and then deal with problems later. This tribe has a chance at working well for him, as Colby and Lex combined are formidable in all physical competitions.
Rupert Ė As noted above, I am a little worried about Rupert. He was very quiet and laid back in the first show. He says that he is pursuing a new strategy. I am the first to say he needed to modify his approach, but he also needs to remember that the good Rupert was the guy who was team oriented and a monster in the challenges. Hopefully he doesnít lose that aspect of his personality. On the other hand, an alliance with Rudy was expected, and a good move. If I were him, I would also have brought Ethan into the mix, but the former winner phobia in this tribe is especially strong. If he is not careful, Rupert is going to find himself on the short end of majority vote in the tribe.
Rudy Ė I love Rudy. He isnít going to win, but I love him nevertheless. He rolls up to Rupert and says hey, maybe you and me ought to be an alliance. They exchange various men of honor compliments, and it is done. I think that they both would die for the other. Seriously. Some people are funny like that. In any case, it will take more than one partner to survive this game. Ethan would be the perfect addition to the party, and give them a majority voting bloc in the tribe. I doubt that Rudy will try to buck the anti-winner tide though, and by doing so, he is putting himself at risk.
Happy Jenna Ė I have to say that I am pretty disappointed in her attitude. I know all the previous winners are targets, but her reasons for insisting on Tinaís departure are pretty silly really. It reeked of jealousy. If this is the new Jenna, then please bring back the old one.
Ethan Ė He has to be feeling pretty vulnerable right now. The thing with Ethan is that he is untested in terms of being the decision maker in an alliance, or on his own for that matter. He has a difficult task ahead of him. At least two votes would bounce him right now. He can try to make inroads with Rupert and Rudy, or he can use his existing ties to Jenna, and bring in Jerri, who is probably more than happy to get close to Ethan. His only hope is to set himself up as the swingman between the two factions. He is on the hot seat.
Jerri Ė She is another one who pledged to be different during All-Stars, and so far she is. If she were thinking long term, she would realize that now that her nemesis Tina is gone, she can really pursue any strategy she wishes. However, would guys like Rupert and Rudy bring her into the inner circle? I am not so sure. Therefore, by default, she is likely to stay tied to Jenna for a while. This tribe could find itself at tribal council quite a bit in the near future.
I Guess That Didnít Work
Tina. What didnít work for her was showing up on the show in the first place. She knew that she would be a target early on, but I think she underestimated the venom that Jenna brought to the task. She just didnít have time to maneuver out of the trap. I canít really see anything she could have done to save herself.
Next week, the effects of thirst will make matters even more difficult for the tribes. The first episode was quite insightful, letís see what happens next.
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