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Thread: Alliance analysis at Episode 8 11/13

  1. #1
    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    Alliance analysis at Episode 8 11/13

    I'm trying to figure things out. I did not read any spoilers.

    Full disclosure: I have a mediocre track record at this.

    Here's how I think the alliances are stacked and how things will play out:

    Core Drake:
    {{{{Rupert, Christa}, Sandra}, Burton}, Lil, Jon}

    Note: The inner braces indicate a stronger alliance.

    Outcast:
    {Burton, Lil}

    Core Morgan:
    {{Ryan, Darrah}, Tijuana}

    Without structural re-alignment, here's what we get:

    The "Core Drakes" Pagong the Morgans. They can pause to take Jon out at any moment - there are six members of "Core Drake" and only five are needed. Once Pagonging is complete, then the "outside" members of the group go.

    Pagonging only goes to completion if the Core Drakes misread the relative strengths of their own alliances.

    More than any other player, Jon NEEDS a move. He has no reliable alliances. In addition, Lil and the Core Morgan alliance need alliance re-alignment ASAP.

    Every game has "players" and "non-players." My definition is that "players" will initiate a move to switch alliances. "Non-players" may respond, but will not initiate.

    My players list: Jon, Burton, Sandra, Tijuana
    My non-players list: Lil, Christa, Ryan, Darrah, Rupert

    Full disclosure: I'm often wrong about the "player's list" - with their backs to the wall, even morons make moves.

    It's too early for Sandra to make a move - there are six players "ahead" of her.

    It's unlikely that Burton will make a move - he's attempting to realign the Core Drakes to look something like this:

    {{{Rupert, Burton}, Christa, Sandra}, Lil, Jon}

    This will not happen - Rupert and Christa are too tight. Burton probably won't figure this out the second time, either.

    Based on need and my "player's list," I conclude that a move is most likely to come from Jon or Tijuana this week.

    A suggested move for Jon:

    {Jon, Lil, {Core Morgan}}

    This means uprooting the Outcast alliance - that may be beyond Jon's negotiating skill. A better player could do it, however. A better player would have reliable alliances at this point (duh!).

    A suggested move for Tijuana - this would take some work, but it's possible:

    {{Core Morgan}, Lil, Burton}
    also possible, but less likely, is:
    {{Core Morgan}, Lil, Sandra}

    The preview shows Rupert threatening to kill Jon. It's not clear if Jonny-boy made a move that backfired, or Rupert is just keeping him in line. Since Jon's position seems perilous in the preview, that means he is completely safe. Since Rupert feels threatened in the preview, he too is safe this week.

    There's a good chance that nobody makes a move and the Pagonging continues with Ryan.

  2. #2
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fossil
    The preview shows Rupert threatening to kill Jon.
    I am guessing Jon gets that reaction a lot.
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  3. #3
    Embracing the Inner Geek museumguy's Avatar
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    Wonders who isn't in the line to kill john...and if it needs to be divided into literal murder and metaphorical character assassination....if they can find any character to assassinate

  4. #4
    FORT Fogey JonasGrumby's Avatar
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    Well RyanO is gone as most everyone predicted. This is because Burton is preparing an alliance re-alignment. Now that he got the strongest remaining player of the core Morgans out and outnumber them with his own alliance he is in the best position to make the F2:

    {{{{Burton, Lil} Jon} Darrah, Tijuana} Sandra, Christa, Rupert}

    He stands a better chance against Lil than Jon because no matter how unpopular Jon is, the jury would still believe that a returnee doesn't deserve to win the million. It was the returnee that destroyed the entire dynamics of game fairplay that affected the real survivors' chances of winning it all.

  5. #5
    Leo
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    Ah.... a double outcast F2? Please, no.

  6. #6
    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    I think right now this is how it looks:

    {{Christa, Sandra}Rupert*,Tijuana,Darrah}

    {Burton,Lill}

    {Jon**}

    * This last episode showed Sandra and Christa openly talking to each other about wanting to get rid of Rupert fast. There is a possibility Rupert thinks he has a stronger alliance than he really does with these two.

    ** Jon can tag along either one above I think. He's annoying, but he is good at presenting his services (a vote) to everyone around him.

    Note that I think these 2 main alliances are still very flexible and could easily steal members from other alliances. In this last episode the only person that seemed to make a connection with Tijuana and Darrah was Sandra, and I am almost sure she directed their votes towards Ryan. This is why I think these two are tagging along the Christa/Sandra alliance.
    "The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of an expanding bureaucracy."
    -- Unknown

  7. #7
    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    From what Burton said regarding alliances in his Survivor Chat, I think I will revise my list to this:

    {{Christa, Sandra}Rupert}

    {{Burton,Lill}Tijuana,Darrah,J on}

    Sandra and Christa are active enough however to be able to recruit both the Morgan girls and Jon.
    "The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of an expanding bureaucracy."
    -- Unknown

  8. #8
    FORT Fan catfishbarb's Avatar
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    I know this may be a bit off the wall, but after ep 8, I get the strong feeling that Jon and Sandra are in a secret alliance. Think about it. All season they have been very antagonistic toward each other. Last night when she put the coconut in his tray she gave him the finger. An act to let everyone know that she can't stand him. She is smart enough to not let personal feelings stop her from getting far in the game. Another thing is that she is the one that said Burton was the one coming back after the outcasts won. I think she wanted to make her drake tribe start thinking that if Burton came back and realigned with Sean they would be in trouble hence Sean goes not Jon. She is in with Rupert and Christa, Jon talks to everyone and confides in Burton. Between the two of them they have a good idea of what everyone is thinking. I don't necessary think they are 100% loyal to each other but are definately using each other to get to the finals. They were both the weakest Drakes at the beginning of the game. They teamed together to protect each other. They have both been playing a similar strategy. They will vote for anyone as long as it's not them. Jon has just been shown as the jerk and she hasn't.

  9. #9
    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
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    That is certainly possible catfishbarb, anything is at this point. Sandra has ice water in her veins and won't vote friendships, only to go further. She and Jon won't win many IC's, so they could have some sort of pact. Two votes is always better than one. And if they're not together, Jon may try to play Sandra only to get played himself.
    Log off. That cookie sh*t makes me nervous. --Tony Soprano

    So I said to him, "Look, buddy, your car was upside down when we got here. And as for your Grandma, she shouldn't have mouthed off like that!" --Homer Simpson

  10. #10
    FORT Fogey JonasGrumby's Avatar
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    Everyone knows that it's a sure win if you take an Outkast or Jon with you to the F2. Jon knew that his best chance of winning it is by going with Burton and Lil. However, one needs to get rid of Burton before he takes you out because he knows too that he stands no chance of winning against anyone except Lil and maybe Jon.

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