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Thread: Alliance analysis at Episode 8 11/13

  1. #11
    FORT Fan catfishbarb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonasGrumby
    Everyone knows that it's a sure win if you take an Outkast or Jon with you to the F2. Jon knew that his best chance of winning it is by going with Burton and Lil. However, one needs to get rid of Burton before he takes you out because he knows too that he stands no chance of winning against anyone except Lil and maybe Jon.
    I don't know about that. Michelle said Jon was a hard worker and a great guy. Trish said some good things about Jon. In fact most of the negative comments have been about Christa who has been shown very positive. He may be annoying but not all of the time. We are only seeing the negative about Jon. The fact that he is still in the game shows me that he has more friends than we know. Even Rupert , he forgave him after his rant. When he came back from Morgans he gave Jon a big hug and kiss on the side of the head. Clay almost beat Brian in S5 and he was seemed to be as big a jerk, and he didn't even do any work on top of it. There are only 3 morgans on the jury, not counting Lil. Jon has been shown befriending Lil and being nice to her.

  2. #12
    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
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    Nothing is really certain in the final vote. Last season I tried to figure out possible votes and I thought there was no way Jenna would win. Rob may have been able to beat Matthew also. The advantage may be with a Drake simply because there were more of them in the final 9, or with a woman. (numbers too) Rupert though, would be very hard to beat at this point.
    Log off. That cookie sh*t makes me nervous. --Tony Soprano

    So I said to him, "Look, buddy, your car was upside down when we got here. And as for your Grandma, she shouldn't have mouthed off like that!" --Homer Simpson

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonasGrumby
    Well RyanO is gone as most everyone predicted. This is because Burton is preparing an alliance re-alignment. Now that he got the strongest remaining player of the core Morgans out and outnumber them with his own alliance he is in the best position to make the F2:

    {{{{Burton, Lil} Jon} Darrah, Tijuana} Sandra, Christa, Rupert}

    He stands a better chance against Lil than Jon because no matter how unpopular Jon is, the jury would still believe that a returnee doesn't deserve to win the million. It was the returnee that destroyed the entire dynamics of game fairplay that affected the real survivors' chances of winning it all.
    I pretty much agree. Jon and Burton, I think, do have something going on. On two separate instances in episode 8, Jon protected Burton. Once, when Jon and Rupert were on the beach going into the water, Jon said something like "Burton means it" in response to Rupert's questioning whether or not Burton's alliance with them was true. Later in the episode when Jon and Christa were lounging about, Christa brought up Burton's name as a possible boot. Jon immediately suggested Ryan, saying he was sneaky and had to be watched (or something to that effect). I remember Christa looking a little surprised, saying "really...".
    The previews show a Burton, Jon, Darrah, Tijuana, and Lil alliance. I think it might hold true this week, but then things might change again (maybe if Rupert is booted, T and D will join forces with Christa and Sandra to eliminate Burton, then Jon, then Lil). So many possibilities though.

  4. #14
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    Rupert .....Christia......Tijuana....

    There are now many alliances formed in game. Christia,Darrah,Sandra and Tijuana in the (girl power alliance).Burton and lillian in the outcast(Back for Revenge).Rupert,christia,Sandr a and Jon in the (Drake Ego).
    Lillian,Burton and Jon in the (misfitted alliance).
    From here and the previews,i think that the girl power and misfitted alliance will formed into the (stab rupert in the back alliance ) and voted off rupert.From here, there will be more girls than guys.If they continue to voted off the guys ,lillian will be the next woman off.Thus episope 10,lillian and burton will try to get the previous morgan members and jon to break sandra and christia alliance which may lead to christia off.From then on, lillian,Jon,sandra and burton will go back to haunt the morgan and voted tijuana off the game. This is my predictions for the next two episope.Hope someone can reply their views to my prediction.

  5. #15
    Plotting spegs's Avatar
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    After the last episode...I'm thinking Mark Burnett is not showing us a new alliance because it's going to be successful. And I can't decide who's pulling the strings.

    Someone got to T and Darah, and got them to vote against Ryno--but they didn't show who.

    Someone orchestrated the immunity challenge to leave Rupert feeling very secure--but again, we didn't see who set that up, or the reasoning behind it. Afterall, that was one of the few challenges where you can take anyone out, no matter how well they play. An interesting strategy to waste the opportunity on Ryno...

    I suspect the person behind this is Sandra. I think she's keeping Rupert around for the food--until she has a solid enough alliance to not need his vote.

    I'm thinking from the previews that Rupert's time may be up this week--they showed absolutely no plotting against him He will be missed
    "Look, you love me, and I love you. Maybe in a different time, a different place, this would work out. But we both know that only one of us is leaving this room alive, and I'm the one holding the flame thrower." - Film Fakers

  6. #16
    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spegs
    Someone orchestrated the immunity challenge to leave Rupert feeling very secure
    Ryno got a box full of coconuts and was taken out immediately in the IC. At that moment, the die was cast - everybody in the game (except the victim) knew how the vote was going that night.

    So, immunity didn't matter for the rest of the players. It was about "positioning" and not tipping your hand, like Lil giving Burton a couple of coconuts. That seemed transparent to me - I wonder if anybody "bought" that ploy.

    When Sandra gave Rupert a coconut, remember what Rupert said? Something like (said jokingly, but not really), "Sandra, don't give me a coconut!"

    Rupert's intimidation game is just about over. I don't think that his winning the IC was an orchestrated move, however. I see it as the last gasp of his bullying tactics.

  7. #17
    FORT Regular SpyRI's Avatar
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    I think Burton and Sandra are really running the game at this point. Christa has made too many enemies and I think Sandra is all for herself. I wonder if Burton and Sandra have any kind of alliance? I just can't believe anyone would willingly form an alliance with Jon! I really think she hates him as much as any of us would if we were stuck on a beach with him for a month.
    Et in Arcadia Ego

  8. #18
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    I think Jon is going to be switching his alliances to get himself into a good position.

    He can do it like this: the alliance he has with Burton and Lill is secret. Rupert thinks he is with him, Sandra and Christie. Christie and Sandra think they are 4 strong and will try and target Burton.

    Jon will be the swing vote and will probably vote against Rupert.

    Rupert gone. The two remaining Morgans have hung on and will vote whoever so long as it's not them.

    They will do the same next tribal council and vote against Burton along with Christie and Sandra.

    So I think what will happen is that both Burton and Rupert will be the next two boots in any order.

    That will leave {Sandra, Christie} and {T, D} and {Jon} and {Lill}.

    {T, D} will pick up Jon and Lill and vote off probably Christie (she's stronger than Sandra).

    {T, D} are outnumbered by the three nonaligned people and will be picked off one by one. Both Jon and Sandra want to go to F2 with Lill as they know the Morgans on the jury would never give their vote to Lill (and there would be three Morgans on the jury) and all they would have to do is pick up one more vote from the Drakes.

    That could be a landslide as nobody on the jury except Burton would want to see an Outcast win.

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