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Thread: Success in Survivor - A Mathematical Model

  1. #11
    Back to the kitty lalol's Avatar
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    You know this is a very good formula kind of stuff... but you forgot one important thing... emotions and emotions can't really be calculated with numbers. Every season really depends on how emotional the survivors are etc.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by lalol
    You know this is a very good formula kind of stuff... but you forgot one important thing... emotions and emotions can't really be calculated with numbers. Every season really depends on how emotional the survivors are etc.
    Absolutely correct. There are obviously things which cannot be calculated that factor in to the game.

    For example, I'd love to be able to give extra points to a tribal leader as this would be an excellent indicator of who was in control of the game. But how can you, with any degree of objectivity, define who all the tribal leaders were? The answer is, you cannot. So, since I cannot give these types of qualities an unbiased value, I chose not to include them in the first place.

    My intent was not to try to quantify everything, only to set values to those things that were quantifiable.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roz_City
    So... What's the answers? Did I get it right
    Spot on! Good work Roz_City!! See the next post for details.

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    How about that...Jenna DID deserve to win!

    Okay. Here are the results for each season of the show along with some applicable notes. Each castaway’s name is followed by their finishing position followed by their point total.

    Survivor - Pulau Tiga

    Kelly (2)…….46.918
    Rudy (3)…….40.977
    Richard (1)…….40.887
    Susan (4)…….39.214
    Sean (5)…….35.707
    Gretchen (10)…….29.769
    Colleen (6)…….29.590
    Jenna (8)…….29.381
    Joel (11)…….25.778
    Gervase (7)…….25.433
    Dirk (12)…….23.635
    Greg (9)…….22.984
    Ramona (13)…….16.432
    Stacey (14)…….8.266
    Sonja (16)…….5.286
    B.B. (15)…….3.048

    Notes: Kelly gets the nod here because near the end, she was a challenge hog. Winning the last four IC's, in effect, wrested control of the game from the manipulative Richard. If I could award points for controlling an alliance, then perhaps Richard would have come out on top. It's interesting that Rudy edged out Richard for second place. Why? Rudy was more consistent in casting a vote at TC for the person who got the boot. While both attended the same number of TC's, Richard did not cast a vote for Sonja at the first TC while Rudy did. In fact, from that point forward, they both voted the same way and always for the person getting the boot. And look where Pagong member Gretchen finished! Again, she was much more consistent with voting correctly at tribal council and had fewer votes cast against her for the time she was on the island.

    Survivor - The Australian Outback

    Colby (2)…….53.639
    Tina (1)…….42.922
    Keith (3)…….40.834
    Elisabeth (4)…….33.095
    Rodger (5)…….32.885
    Amber (6)…….32.814
    Jerri (8)…….31.500
    Nick (7)…….31.333
    Alicia (9)…….30.429
    Jeff (10)…….29.086
    Michael (11)…….25.095
    Mitchell (13)…….21.111
    Kimmi (12)…….19.956
    Maralyn (14)…….16.487
    Kel (15)…….1.905
    Debb (16)…….1.000

    Notes: Was there any doubt as to who would come out on top this season? Colby wracked up 5 post-merge immunities and 3 post-merge rewards. He carried Tina to the final 2 only to hand deliver her the cheque for $1 million. This season really seemed to fit well with the model in terms of where people actually finished compared to where they "should have" finished.

    Survivor - Africa

    Kim J. (2)…….47.917
    Lex (3)…….46.402
    Ethan (1)…….43.275
    Tom (4)…….37.849
    Kelly (9)…….32.571
    Kim P. (6)…….32.144
    Brandon (8)…….30.976
    Teresa (5)…….29.378
    Clarence (10)…….28.139
    Frank (7)…….28.054
    Lindsey (11)…….23.635
    Silas (12)…….20.556
    Jessie (15)…….15.154
    Linda (13)…….10.709
    Carl (14)…….7.000
    Diane (16)…….2.429

    Notes: Hmmmmm. Kim Johnson? The best player in Africa? Well, she did win the last two IC's which cemented her spot in the Final 2. Lex was an immunity hog in his own right, winning three post-merge IC's. Ethan won the first post-merge IC and RC and won nothing else from that point forward. Except, of course, the game itself!

    Survivor - Marquesas

    Neleh (2)…….45.617
    Kathy (3)…….42.851
    Paschal (4)…….42.429
    Vecepia (1)…….39.626
    Sean (5)…….35.972
    Tammy (7)…….32.260
    Robert (6)…….32.027
    Zoe (8)…….32.003
    John (9)…….29.000
    Rob (10)…….28.681
    Gina (11)…….21.752
    Sarah (13)…….18.750
    Patricia (15)…….15.154
    Hunter (14)…….14.778
    Gabe (12)…….6.476
    Peter (16)…….3.857

    Notes: Just as everyone suspected all along, Kathy got game! Or, at least, had it when she was in Marquesas. She played well, but eventually was no match for Neleh and Pappy's alliance which saw each of them with a 100% accuracy rating when it came to voting out members of the tribe. Vecepia, the eventual winner, finished with the fourth highest score making the Marquesas version of the show the biggest anomaly in my model.

    Survivor - Thailand

    Brian (1)…….54.484
    Clay (2)…….40.910
    Ted (5)…….39.954
    Helen (4)…….39.467
    Jan (3)…….38.449
    Ken (8)…….29.580
    Penny (7)…….29.286
    Jake (6)…….28.713
    Erin (9)…….27.624
    Shii Ann (10)…….23.242
    Ghandia (13)…….15.484
    Tanya (15)…….15.154
    Robb (11)…….12.881
    Stephanie (12)…….10.455
    Jed (14)…….4.976
    John (16)…….2.429

    Again, there should be no surprises here. Brian won the last three IC's. He knew who to vote for each time at TC. No one, not one single person, ever wrote his name on a piece of parchment until it was time to hand him the money.

    Survivor - The Amazon

    Jenna (1)…….44.511
    Mathew (2)…….44.150
    Rob (3)…….41.184
    Butch (4)…….36.810
    Heidi (5)…….36.474
    Alex (7)…….33.560
    Deena (8)…….31.960
    Roger (10)…….28.319
    Christy (6)…….28.072
    Dave (9)…….27.000
    Shawna (11)…….18.667
    Jeanne (12)…….16.841
    Joanna (13)…….11.042
    Daniel (14)…….7.068
    Ryan (16)…….5.286
    Janet (15)…….4.619

    Notes: Now, don't get me wrong. I was never a big fan of Jenna's either. But deep down I was hoping that this model might somehow justify her finishing where she did. And, believe it or not, it does. Jenna won four post-merge IC's including the last two which, as we all know, are the most important ones. She was quite consistent in correctly voting at TC's and she only had three votes cast against her IN TOTAL. That was over the course of 11 TC's. The fact that we percieved her to be such an awful person while she drew relatively little fire for her actions at TC is a testament to her gamesmanship. Amazon was another example of a season which provided a good fit for the model.

  5. #15
    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
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    Interesting results, tmcrae. Your #5 criteria Casting a “Correct” Tribal Council Vote has always seemed to be one of the most important factors for staying in the game. A player who can stay on the right side of a majority and sense when to switch will usually go far. The results for Marquesas shows the uncertainty of the purple rock and then my favorite of that season Kathy going next.
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  6. #16
    Back to the kitty lalol's Avatar
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    This is really all we can calculate as fans of this show... and I got to agree except I would never think Butch should have been 4th and Heidi 5th

  7. #17
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    I think this is an interesting excercise, as it assigns points to those areas of the game that are likely important, but I wonder if it has any value as a predictive tool, given that it is mainly data compiled after each event, and those events in turn effect the total number attainable to the end.
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  8. #18
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    I think this is pretty interesting results! Vee finished lowest of all the Survivor winners, truly showing that she should not have won that season! I guess Jenna really did deserve to win, it seems that way anyway.

  9. #19
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    I think that if somebody dosn't get a vote against them(untill they get voted out) it could be because they are a terrible player. Case in point Rodger(S2) or Jan(S6) which both are rated high on your lists and did finish high on the show just because they were dead ducks.

    It's hard to argue who may be the best player ever in the history of the show but alot of the worst players in the history of this game finish about 5-8ish overall and in the jury just because they so useless as game players and other people can easily manipulate them because they know they are good for a vote but otherwise dead weight.
    Last edited by CharlaFan; 10-11-2003 at 04:17 AM.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill_in_PDX
    I think this is an interesting excercise, as it assigns points to those areas of the game that are likely important, but I wonder if it has any value as a predictive tool, given that it is mainly data compiled after each event, and those events in turn effect the total number attainable to the end.
    No. It has no value as a predictive tool at all and it was not meant to. It was only meant to be a means to show who played the game the best after all was said and done.

    Astrogirl posted a couple of links above which show formulae one person has used to attempt to predict who will win based on factors from previous seasons.

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