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Thread: Is throwing an IC pre-merge ever a good strategy?

  1. #1
    Premium Member sheela's Avatar
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    Is throwing an IC pre-merge ever a good strategy?

    Usually it's a bad idea to take a dive at IC because it reduces your tribe's numbers when it's time to merge. However, Drake's current situation is an exception to the rule, imho.

    Since Drake is 3 members ahead at this point, I don't think they would need to lose sleep over being one member short at merge. They can easily afford to lose someone.

    As things stand, Morgan has got rid of its 3 weakest members. So they'll use their 5 strongest members for both challenges next week. Drake, OTOH, must sit out 3 members for the next RC and IC. Since they aren't allowed to sit out the same people in consecutive challenges, they will be forced to sit out one or more of their stronger members. We saw that happen this week when they had to sit Burton out. With each IC they win, this situation gets worse for Drake. The odds turn in Morgan's favor as Morgan's strongest team is pitted against Drake's B team.

    By throwing an IC and voting Jon (or whoever their weakest member is) off, they would in essence be permanently sitting out their weakest member. It costs them nothing and reduces the chances of sitting out a truly strong person.


    Another reason for Drake to throw the next challenge is because this winning streak makes for bad television and forces MB to change the game. Drake is far better off evening the score themselves than letting MB do it for them. Better to deal with the known evil (losing an RC/IC) than with the unknown (MB's game-change to keep the viewers' interest.)


    So, can we make a case for Drake to throw a challenge? And are there other circumstances under which a tribe could potentially benefit by throwing a challenge pre-merge?

  2. #2
    Leo
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    I don't like the idea of throwing a challenge at all. My main reasoning is that allowing Morgan to win would be a significant boost to that tribe's morale. They may be horribly inept, but Drake cannot afford to let their guard down. Also, once you lose once, then you might make a habit of it.

    As for the problem of who has to sit down - Drake still has the advantage. Outside of each tribe's top three physical threats (Rupert, Burton, and Shawn for Drake and Osten, Andrew, and Ryan O. for Morgan), Drake has an advantage. Who's left in Morgan's B-team? Darrah and Tijuana. Drake's B-team is much deeper - Trish is definitely capable, Sandra probably is as well. Christa, Michelle, and Jon match up well with Darrah and Tijuana.

    My point is - two of Drake's A-team combined with whoever they pick from their B-team can win against whoever Morgan puts up. Drake can afford, I think, to sit one of their A-team in every challenge and still be even with Morgan physically.

    As for any MB twists, any tribe swaps - the stock MB response - happens whether the tribes do well or not. I don't think it is a factor.

    I still can't make a good case to throw an IC. Especially with Drake so far up, giving Morgan any hope of evening things is dangerous. Drake shouldn't be in the business of giving Morgan any liferafts, which is what a thrown IC challenge should be. Unless, of course, that liferaft has an anvil tied to it (but that's another story entirely).

  3. #3
    Back to the kitty lalol's Avatar
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    Throwing a challenge first of all... no sportsmanship... second you might end up like Sook Jai

  4. #4
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    I think throwing a challenge is a bad idea.

    You cannot assume that the merge will come at the regularly scheduled time, eh Shii Ann?

    Boran successfully threw a challenge to ditch Silas during S3, but I believe that only worked because they had agreement on who should go. You need to ensure there are no suprises at TC if you are going to deliberately throw a challenge.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  5. #5
    For Your Entertainment lobeck's Avatar
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    I agree w/ Fluff. Unless you have talked about it beforehand and are absolutely sure about who you're going to vote off at TC, I think throwing an IC could be a dangerous proposition...:nono

  6. #6
    Soccer Kicks Balls cali's Avatar
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    I just wouldn't be able to throw a challenge. I have a feeling Rupert feels the same way.

    I also agree with Leo when he said:
    Quote Originally Posted by Leo
    They may be horribly inept, but Drake cannot afford to let their guard down. Also, once you lose once, then you might make a habit of it.
    Also, I don't hink it makes for bad TV. It's almost like a train wreck.. people will tune in to see if they could possibly get any worse. I guess once the merge (and reeally, they have to at some point right?) it could make for bad TV if they Pagong (Is that the right verb??)
    "Rice is great when you're hungry and want 2,000 of something' -- Mitch Hedberg

  7. #7
    Are these spots becoming? chompstick's Avatar
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    I think that throwing an IC is part of the game strategy, if that's what they choose. But I do think it would be a huge mistake, because of the morale boost to Morgan. Drake has such a huge morale advantage, they shouldn't give any of that away.

  8. #8
    FORT Fogey CantGetNuf's Avatar
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    They shouldn't throw a challenge because they never know when they might actually start loseing ICs. Surely at some point Morgan has to get lucky and win a few.

  9. #9
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    Throwing an IC would be the worst strategy anyone would ever think of. Once they have the ball rolling, just keep it rolling. Doesn't anyone remember Sook Jai in Thailand? Didn't any of the PI castaways watch S5?

    Never let the oppsition get a chance at a morale boost. If Drake wants to vote someone off at this stage, why not post-merge, by then they'll have the numbers against Morgan, pagong them, and then do what they like. Isn't that so much safer? Makes boring TV though.

  10. #10
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    I personally think it is a bad idea. You never know what the future challenges are and what the other team may be capable of in those challenges.

    What if they threw the next IC, and then Morgan comes back and takes the rest of the IC challenges before the merge?

    Their best bet is to suck it up and deal with Jon and then when the merge comes into play, make sure he is the first to go.

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