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Thread: Why Rob can't win Survivor

  1. #1
    FORT Fogey
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    Why Rob can't win Survivor

    Rob may think he has the strategy, but he will never be the sole survivor.

    Each of the Jury members has a knife in his/her back courtesy of Rob. He may think he understands the game and that he is in control, but he only has a partial idea. Rob is a court jester and not a savvy player. With all of his plotting and planning he never thought it through to the end.

    Jeff warned him last night at TC when he said that it's one thing to last this long but another matter entirely when it comes down to the Jury vote.

    Here's the breakdown so far: Dave (stabbed/betrayed by Rob), Deena (stabbed/betrayed by Rob), Alex (stabbed/betrayed by Rob, Christy (stabbed/betrayed by Rob). They and the ones that come after them are the people who ultimately decide the winner.

    Do you honestly think Rob has a chance here? I certainly don't.

  2. #2
    Leo
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    The question is whether Rob can get any "respect" votes - i.e., people voting for Rob because they respect how he played the game. Right now, I'm not optimistic. Dave and Deena are definite possibilities. Alex, based on his recent comments to the media defending Heidi and Jenna, I'm not sure, but probably not.

    Christy - depends on who he's against. Jenna or Heidi, Christy's vote goes his way. Otherwise it doesn't. Butch - not enough information to decide. Matt is also in this category - no clue either way. Heidi and Jenna - they're emotional voters, somewhat like Christy. Don't bet on any respect votes from them.

  3. #3
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    Yes, I do think Rob would have a chance if he made the Final 2 to be the sole survivor.

    But, it would take a cadre of seven (or at least four) logically-thinking individuals sitting as jury members to make it happen. If Rob were to make the Final 2, his best strategy might very well be to come clean about all of his dealings, admitting that the only reason he back-stabbed so many people was to further his progression in the game. I've said it before, Survivor is not about hanging out with people for a month and establishing long-term relationships. If that happens, great! But it's about doing what you must do to win. Rob has done just that. So, a logically-thinking jury might say "Ya know, I'm really pissed that Rob screwed me over to get where he is. But, he did outwit, outlast and outplay me. He did what he needed to win. Although I may not agree with how he did it, I believe he played the best game and deserves the money."

    Too often, Survivor contestants equate attributes like "need" and "integrity" with who "deserves" to win the game. The word "deserve", of course, is subjective. Did Carl "deserve" to be voted out in Africa because he was a "rich dentist" who "didn't need the money"? Absolutely not. Did Kelly "deserve" the venom-filled speech (and non-vote) from Sue in Borneo's final Tribal Council because she took her out of contention? Nope. In fact, I'd argue that Kelly deserved to win the inaugural season of Survivor simply because of what she had to do to get to the Final 2 (which was win a boatload of immunity challenges).

    Having said all of this, I do agree that Rob winning the $1 million is highly unklikely because people invariably let their emotions exert too much influence over their voting decisions. I gotta admit, if I was on the jury, I would have a rough time voting of Rob! It's all fine and good for me to get on my soapbox and say that jury members should be voting based on this and that, but I'm sure it's much different once you are thrust into that position.

    Last edited by tmcrae; 05-02-2003 at 12:56 PM.

  4. #4
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    Much depends on who's sitting next to Rob. I really can't imagine four people out of seven deciding that Butch, say, played a better game than Rob.

    Stabbing people in the back is a requirement for winning this game, I think. Unless you're Ethan, who was fortunate enough to have everyone around him stab each other in the back instead.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

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    Well put, Paulie! Ethan's truly been the only "nice guy" to win the game.

  6. #6
    Yo Flo whip me up a bagel vanillakraut's Avatar
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    Rob definately has a chance.
    Did anyone think Richard had a chance on Survivor 1?
    It's a game, it's just a game.
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  7. #7
    Premium Member NYGal's Avatar
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    I agree with Jeff. It's one thing to get to the final two, another to win the million. Rob has made too many deals and burned too many bridges. Let's not forget that Rob was directly involved in putting Deena, Alex and Christy on the jury (not so much Dave). "Loser Lodge" gives them a lot of time to think about what they could have done differently, like not trusting Rob and to talk among themselves. Anyone can beat him at this point. Yes, even Jenna.

  8. #8
    Metallica Fanatic breathless4975's Avatar
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    Rob may not end up with the million dollars but one step at a time he is making more money. It might not be a million but the amount increases each time he is able to get someone else out. Of course he realizes that and knows that he'll have trouble taking the whole thing but a little is better than nothing at this point so I think he has $ signs in his head each time he stabs someone in the back. He's no fool!
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  9. #9
    FORT Fogey
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    Rob - the ultimate loser!

    Originally posted by Paulie
    Much depends on who's sitting next to Rob. I really can't imagine four people out of seven deciding that Butch, say, played a better game than Rob.

    Stabbing people in the back is a requirement for winning this game, I think. Unless you're Ethan, who was fortunate enough to have everyone around him stab each other in the back instead.
    Paulie, Butch will never make it to the end. Having said that, who the hell knows? I honestly don't think so, though.

    Also, there is backstabbing and then there is backstabbing and constantly changing your alliances. What was the "spitshake" all about? Rob, Butch, Christy and Matt pledged allegiance to each other and then Rob jumps ship. Why Matt voted Christy out is still a complete and utter mystery to me.

    Let me put it another way, Rob has no finesse. Brian was the consummate game player. He stuck to alliance lines and then he quietly did his "schtick." Rob is so blatantly obvious that they openly say that can't believe or trust him. Did anyone ever say that about Brian or Richard Hatch?

  10. #10
    your ad here jodaar's Avatar
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    Rob can win because people don't realize he's backstabbing them. They all went into TC thinking he was on their side. Remember, they don't get to see who he votes for. They can only assume.

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