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Thread: Why Rob can't win Survivor

  1. #11
    Watch me unravel stepscot's Avatar
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    Probably a good indication that Rob may have a hard time of it would be from last season. For Clay to have gotten any votes at all (he certainly did not play the game well) indicates that emotional voting often means that the person who plays the best does not always win because people hold grudges. In Brian's case, he actually did win but only by the slimmest of margins.....
    BTW, I couldn't stand Brian, but he was the best player.
    I think Rob may be the best player in this season, but I doubt he will win.
    Let us all bask in television's warm glowing warming glow. --Homer Simpson

  2. #12
    Fri Morning Survivorback
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    Originally posted by NYGal
    I agree with Jeff. It's one thing to get to the final two, another to win the million. Rob has made too many deals and burned too many bridges. Let's not forget that Rob was directly involved in putting Deena, Alex and Christy on the jury (not so much Dave). "Loser Lodge" gives them a lot of time to think about what they could have done differently, like not trusting Rob and to talk among themselves. Anyone can beat him at this point. Yes, even Jenna.
    I'm just reading through the thread and haven't gotten very far yet, but I had to respond to NYGal.

    True, Rob was involved with putting several on the jury, but I think he has some respect votes already (especially if you read post game interviews). Deena certainly, and I would put Dave and Alex in there too depending upon the opponent.

    Remember, it's HOW the backstabbing was done, not just the act itself. Deena realized she did herself in with Alex (it was the girls that turned on her, Rob just went along); Alex should respect that his confession left Rob no choice; Dave was voted out because of his overall threat (and should feel more betrayed by Deena and Alex).

    If my logic (I know that's not the best indicator!) is right, then Rob could have those three in his corner. Neither of the broomsticks will vote for him, but Christy might (especially if it's against the girls). She should feel just as betrayed by Matt as by Rob.

    In the F2, I think Rob beats Heidi or Jenna but would have a tough time against Matt and Butch.

    If I were to choose an opponent to go against in the final 2:
    1. Jenna (would lose to anybody)
    2. Heidi (could only beat Jenna)
    3. Rob (depending on the rest of the game play)
    4. Matt (not overtly on anyones bad list)
    5. Butch (with the exception that he gets no respect votes)

    So, Rob should ensure that one of the girls remains alive for him to have a chance...
    What do honesty, integrity, morals, or ethics have to do with a million dollars?

  3. #13
    your ad here jodaar's Avatar
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    I think the only way Rob can't win is if the remaining people realize how well he's playing & vote him off because of it.

  4. #14
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    Your assertion was true right up until Alex left, Jodaar. After that, Rob was forced to work out in public. People will know he backstabbed them. Whether their anger about that will be enough to cause him to lose the game is debatable.

    And I agree 100%, CG, that Rob does not possess the finesse of Brian, in particular. As entertaining and outstanding a game as Rob has played, his effort still doesn't hold a candle to the hammerlock Brian held over S5.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  5. #15
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    Re: Rob - the ultimate loser!

    Originally posted by CaliGirl
    Paulie, Butch will never make it to the end. Having said that, who the hell knows? I honestly don't think so, though.

    Also, there is backstabbing and then there is backstabbing and constantly changing your alliances. What was the "spitshake" all about? Rob, Butch, Christy and Matt pledged allegiance to each other and then Rob jumps ship. Why Matt voted Christy out is still a complete and utter mystery to me.

    Let me put it another way, Rob has no finesse. Brian was the consummate game player. He stuck to alliance lines and then he quietly did his "schtick." Rob is so blatantly obvious that they openly say that can't believe or trust him. Did anyone ever say that about Brian or Richard Hatch?
    About Brian no, but Richard many times!
    What do honesty, integrity, morals, or ethics have to do with a million dollars?

  6. #16
    FORT Fogey
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    I don't think Rob can win. His use of game theory has crapped-out because everyone now has perfect information. John Nash's rules don't work if everyone is aware (beyond a certain extent) you're using rules. Rob has gone beyond that, I think.

    Consider Brian from Thailand. He kept everything to himself (well, he let us in on it) until the very end. He wasn't academic about it (like Rob is). He was simply more sly than Stallone.

    Rob, out of necessity, had to divulge his scheme. That will cost him against anyone, even the odious Jenna/Heidi duo.

  7. #17
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    Oops! My earlier post referred to your other comment, Jodaar, not the one immediately above mine. I was slow.

    I don't necessarily think that playing out in front is actually going to hurt him if he does make the final two, BTW. Like I said in another thread, I think he's thinking 2 or 3 moves ahead. He's probably already got his answers sorted out for the jury. Something Neleh, in particular, should have spent some time doing before she received her Final Two gift on S4.

    But I digress.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  8. #18
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Rob could definately win. But, it depends on who he was with in the final two.

    I give him credit for pointing out last night that he now knows that Matt is not the guy to take with him. Jenna is indeed his best possible choice.

    Further, as noted above, he would have to do what he did with Matt, and spill it all. Admitting to what he did, and saying that he came to play the game. He should do what Neleh should have done, and simply told the whiners to shut up, and face the reality that they got outplayed at their own game.

    That said, I think there is zero chance he makes the final two.

    EDIT: I swear I posted my comment on Neleh without reading Paulie's just above me. But you know what they say, twisted minds think alike...
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  9. #19
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    *Twilight Zone theme song*
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  10. #20
    FORT Newbie
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    I clearly feel that Rob is overplaying the game at this point. As he did with Matthew the week before, he's divulging way too much info. His move this week of telling Jenna that he wants to vote off Heidi and take her to the final two because he knows he can beat her there was a huge mistake. Then the panic move of backing out of his "spitshake" alliance in the 11th hour was also really bad. If he had pressed Christy just a little further she would have commited and the two sticks would be on their way out.

    By the way, with the change of events last night, it looks like the CBS betting rumor of Matt and Jenna being the final two looks like more of a possibility.

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