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Thread: Safety Zone - Week 11.

  1. #1
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    Safety Zone - Week 11.

    An examination of the remaining 6 players and their position within the game, with reasons for and against their being eliminated in the next episode.

    Background information:

    “ChillOne”
    – A poster from the Survivor Sucks message board. He vacationed in the same hotel that the Production staff stayed at. Much of his pre season spoiler information has proven accurate.

    “Milkyshaky” – Another “Sucks” poster, she also has her own board where she spoiled Heidi as a contestant before the cast was officially announced.

    Online Betting Suspended : - Online casino’s suspended betting on the final 2 recently after CBS employees were found to be betting on Jenna and Matthew.


    CBS “Clues”

    ON THE NEXT SURVIVOR
    Matthew makes an incredible sacrifice so that others can be given the opportunity of a lifetime. But the newfound respect Matthew enjoys makes Rob rethink his new alliance.


    Still stung by Rob's betrayal of the alliance, an enraged Jenna tells the entire tribe about Rob's secret plans, revealing his strategies to everyone. Will Jenna's revelations turn the tribe against Rob?


    Feeling ostracized and betrayed, Jenna and Heidi refuse to help out around camp. Will this put the final nails in their coffins?well as a new point of view
    With just six players remaining in the game, the manner in which you are mentioned in the CBS clues can be seen as a better indicator of safety than the fact you are mentioned at all.


    Butch



    For:

    · Matthew only aligned with him out of mutual need and has shown more loyalty to Rob. He could feel he no longer needs to align as closely with Butch now Rob is voting with him.
    · Bad opponent in the final two. Might decide to oust him now to avoid the risk of going head to head with him for the $1m..

    Against:

    · Likeable guy who is not seen as an individual immunity threat.
    · Member of the majority alliance.
    · Rumoured to have returned from the Amazon 31 pounds lighter by a poster who “spoiled” him as a contestant before CBS announced the cast.
    · The only remaining contestant who fits the profile of Chill One’s “older guy that makes the final four”

    Verdict – Safe


    Christy



    For:

    · High face time.
    · Allied with Butch and Matt through mutual need. Matt is more closely bonded with Rob.
    · As with Butch, she is not a “good” person to be up against in the final two. Matt, Butch and Rob have the luxury of being able to boot her now and still hold the majority.

    Against:

    · “Chill One” claimed there was a deaf contestant before the cast was officially announced and said she would make the final four.
    · Internet reports of significant weight loss.
    · Part of the majority alliance.

    Verdict – Safe.


    Heidi



    For:

    · No longer part of the majority alliance.
    · Former lazy behaviour not well received, making it unlikely she can find anyone else to bring into the alliance with herself and Jenna.
    · Could be a “mercy boot” on medical grounds due to her knee problems.
    · Whatever plan the new majority comes up with, her vote will simply not be needed.



    Against:

    · Not a huge immunity threat even before her knee injury.
    · Jenna’s promised tirade against Rob could push her ahead of Heidi on the boot list.
    · CBS clues pose the question of whether he continued lazy behaviour and attitude will be “the final nail in her coffin”. History tells us it won’t.

    Verdict – Vulnerable.


    Jenna



    For:

    · Her alliance has crumbled and it’s doubtful she would be able to persuade anyone else to vote with herself and Heidi.
    · Matt, Christy and Butch were angered by the laziness of her former alliance.
    · Alliance with Heidi is the strongest in the game and could finally be targeted now she is no longer in the majority alliance.


    Against:

    · “Chill One” claims Jenna makes the final 2.
    · Online betting situation (see “Background” section above)
    · Decision to expose Rob’s comments could work in her favour by making him a target instead of her.
    · As with Heidi, the manner of her mention in the CBS clues historically points to her safety this week.



    Verdict: – Vulnerable.

    Matthew



    For:

    · Individual immunity threat.



    Against:

    · A posting from a friend of his at the Sucks board confirmed he returned from time away, tanned and with significant weight loss.
    · Mentioned by name in the CBS clues.
    · Online betting situation. (see “Background” section above)
    · Member of the majority alliance.
    · CBS clue says he makes “an incredible sacrifice” , even if the plan was to vote him off, that might change the other’s minds.
    · Physically fittest of the remaining contestants and could conceivably win immunity every week if needed.


    Verdict – Safe.


    Rob



    For:

    · Already has two definite votes against him from Heidi and Jenna if he doesn’t win immunity.
    · Will likely attempt to control the voting of his new alliance, which they may not appreciate.
    · As the CBS clues seem to indicate there will be no “reconciliation” between Rob, Jenna and Heidi, Rob’s new alliance will not need his vote to stave off a tie and might decide to boot him.
    · He joined the other alliance to save his skin down the line, not through any lasting bond with the members. They could see this as a cynical move of convenience.
    · His decision to vote against his old alliance, that he seemed so close to, could mark him as an untrustworthy alliance mate.
    · It would appear he is still “fourth” in his new alliance. A bid to stake his claim for a higher finish by forging a closer alliance with one of his new alliance mates would probably not be welcomed by the other two and make them feel less secure about their own situation.


    Against:

    · “After” pictures show considerable weight loss.
    · The need to break the Heidi/Jenna alliance should place him further down the boot list.
    · Part of the majority alliance. His decision to switch votes saved Matt last week and could ensure he retains the loyalty of his new alliance mates.


    Verdict – Vulnerable.







    Please feel free to add your thoughts and interpretations and any spoiler information you've heard.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  2. #2
    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    Oh, I missed the Safety Zone articles so much! Great stuff, fluff!

  3. #3
    Leo
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    Excellent analysis - each one is always better than the last one.

  4. #4
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    Thank you guys.
    As the series wears on, just who is safe or vulnerable seems to get a little more obvious.
    Things like Rob flip-flopping last week certainly help to keep things interesting.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  5. #5
    Premium Member Bumpkin's Avatar
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    Great job fluff! I really enjoy these and appreciate the time it takes to pull these points together.


  6. #6
    Fri Morning Survivorback
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    Great Job, Fluff!

    I think it should be one of the girls this week, but then Little Robbie is in trouble!
    What do honesty, integrity, morals, or ethics have to do with a million dollars?

  7. #7
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    Excellent article, Fluff!

    If I'm Butch/Christy/Matt and I really think Alex/Heidi/Jenna will be mad at Rob for stabbing them in the back (the only known betrayal Rob has made in the game so far), they'd be crazy not to plunk him down in the chair next to him at the end.

    I think he realizes that, though, and that's why he decided it's OK to finally come out of the shadows and reveal his scheming to Matt and the others. The guy is thinking two moves ahead of everyone else.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

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