(Sorry if it is too long..)
Here is some possibilities that might happen in the next episodes:

*If there's not gonna be a merge*

A. NuFang:
-If The Onion is still playing for numbers, they really need to save Bob. In order to do that, they must throw off the next IC for Bob to be safe until the merge. Now, as for voting, they should vote off Matty because he is a threat when it comes the individual challenges. But Matty and Sugar are tight and she might give the HII to Matty. The best thing to do is that the Onion could
do is to let Sugar know that she's the one being eliminated so that in the TC, she will play the Idol, Matty will be eliminated, and the they will not worries about the Idol.
The advantage of this is they will still keep their numbers but the disadvantage is that they will drive Sugar away and might join Ken's team.

B. NuKota:
-I don't expect much from NuKota. The popular vote will be Susie/Crystal/Ken will vote out Bob.
But, I don't underestimate Bob. Maybe he has Eden's(from Heroes) abilities and persuade the two to vote out Susie. Now that's a better option.
The advantage of that is the swing votes will be lessen to one(Sugar). The disadvatage(for The Onion at least) is that Bob might have a change of heart and joins Ken/Crystal.

C. If the merge happens:
-I don't think there will be a true merge happening. I will be like two different tribes living in the same hut. I think The Onion still have the upper hand.
Bob will join his old tribemates so they still have numbers. That makes it 4-3 with Matty and Sugar being the swing votes. This will really test their persuasive abilities.
If Kenny is the great manipulator that we know of, he can easily flip Sugar, but not Matty for he is still pissed about the Ace thing. Matty will most likely join The Onion for a short time, until they get rid of
Ken/Crystal/Susie. As far as I see it, The Onion still have the upper hand. IF OldFang got picked off one by one, Here is some possible sequence on how they will get eliminated.
6. Sugar- If my guess on NuKota is right.
5. Matty
4. Bob-Coz he may pull the jury into voting for him.
3. Corrine-there's no way he's gonna be the winner!She's like Becky from Cook Islands,she got in the Final 3 by association and not working her butt off.
2. Randy/Charlie
1. Charlie/Randy



As for the "Other" II floating in the water and the possibility for Ken actually having it, that is impossible.
In the previews, we see Ken getting the net from the POND near their huts. Ken's not fishing in the ocean where they threw away the II.