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Thread: How do we get there from here? The Final 2 *spoilers*

  1. #81
    FORT Regular kukaycute's Avatar
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    i think heidi realizing that she and jenna wont make it anymore beg to be voted out instead of jenna...

  2. #82
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    I think you might be right kukay.
    Jenna seems the type to hang in there if only to annoy everyone else.
    Plus Jenna seems to feel she has some kind of "right" to the money.

    The fire is in next weeks episode Leo
    "That's Numberwang!"

  3. #83
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    Okay. In order to come up with some sort of logical explanation as to how Matt and Jenna get to the Final 2, I have decided to take a look at some of the facts surrounding the next two episodes. All have been provided by CBS either through website blurbs, TV previews, press releases etc. I haven't had a chance to read all the messages in this thread, so forgive me if I have repeated or rehashed any ideas, thoughts or logic already posted.

    Here are the facts as I see them:

    Episode XI

    1. Jenna and Heidi are mad at Rob for betraying their alliance and turfing Alex.
    2. Matt makes a huge sacrifice of some sort so others can be given the "opportunity of a lifetime".
    3. Because of Matt's "power play" (see #2 above), Rob begins to question the safety of his alliance with Matt.
    4. The Tribal Council vote is "shocking".
    5. Jenna is still there following the Tribal Council vote. (This is not so much fact as it is conjecture. Perhaps her surprise at the vote result was a reference to Alex's boot at the previous TC and NOT the "shocking" vote alluded to in #4 above. Creative editing may have been used to make us think it is dealing with the upcoming episode's vote. Something to keep in mind is that it is daylight when Jenna makes the comments. If the comments are relective of the person booted in Episode XI, then this would really be a preview of Episode XII since, at the earliest, it would have been recorded the following morning after TC. If, however, the comments were referencing Alex's boot, then these comments would be in the confines of Episode XI. Having said all of this, it really is a moot point since the spoiler we are analyzing deals with Jenna making the Final 2. In other words, she HAS to be there following this Tribal Council vote.)
    6. Reward Challenge is a visit from a loved one.
    7. Matt referred to Rob as "a weenie".
    8. One tribe member betrays another by revealing that person's plans to vote off an ally.

    Episode XII

    1. Fire destroys the camp.
    2. One tribe member gets sick and begs to be voted out.

    Episode XI Analysis
    - Jenna and Heidi are mad at Rob, so it is very likely (barring him winning immunity) that their votes will be cast his way.
    - Matt's "power play" worries Rob. Sticks and Twigs are mad at him already and Matt's act of kindness will surely cause a further drop in Rob's tribal status.
    - Matt now knows the kind of player Rob is ("a weenie"), thanks to Rob's confession to him.
    - With the current alliance at 4, Rob reasons that they can safely lose one member and still be in a good position to get rid of Heidi and Jenna.
    - Now viewing Matt as an increasing threat, Rob targets Matthew to be voted out next. Obviously, Rob has to talk to Christy and Butch.
    - We do not know who spills the beans to the entire tribe regarding Rob's plan to take Matt out. Nonetheless, Matt finds out. Matt now sets his sights on Rob.
    - Christy and Butch know Rob is an alliance flip-flopper (as evidenced by what he did to Alex and his current plan to get rid of Mateo) and view Rob as untrustworthy.

    Conclusion: By a unanimous vote (or, as close to unanimous as you can get when you cannot vote for yourself), Rob becomes the eleventh tribe member voted out.

    Episode XII Analysis
    - Well, the pickins are pretty slim so far as to hints or clues for this episode, so I'll just dive right in and say that Butch's wounded finger from the piranha bite becomes infected with a sever jungle virus. He asks to be voted out.

    Conclusion: Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Christy comply and Butch is voted out.

    Episode XIII Analysis
    - Only Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Christy remain.
    - Matt wins the first Immunity Challenge.
    - Since they won't vote for each other and cannot vote for Matt, Heidi and Jenna vote for Christy.
    - Christy and Matt vote for Jenna resulting in a tie.
    - Unfortunately for Christy, the eventual tie-breaker does not go in her favour.

    Conclusion: Christy's torch is extinguished.

    - Matt also wins the second Immunity Challenge of the episode. Whether it is a physical one, or one which tests mental acumen, Matt will easily outperform the relatively weak and dull-witted duo of Jenna and Heidi.
    - Matt dislikes both Heidi and Jenna but must take one to the Final 2 with him.
    - He sees Jenna as the most hated of the two and reasons that it would be in his best interest to be sitting beside her when the jury votes.
    - Additionally, Matt also looks at Jenna as being favourable to be by his side because of her sick mother. If he loses to Jenna, then at least Jenna will have some money to (presumably) help pay for her mom's cancer treatments and therapy (which, I understand, can be very costly). After all, it is not unlike Matt to make a sacrifice to benefit someone else (see fact #2, Episode XI).
    - The logical and kind-hearted Matthew reasons that Jenna is the best selection to take to the Final 2. Even if he loses, someone's life will be made better as a result of the $1 million prize.

    Conclusion: See ya Heidi! Matt and Jenna remain. And then there were two...

    I've made lots of assumptions here, but I think the facts I have used are sound. The biggest assumption I made, I believe, stems from the assumption that it is Matt who decides who to take to the Final 2. He most surely would have taken anyone other than Jenna had Heidi not been the only other one available. I know lots of people think that Heidi may be the sick person asking to leave in Episode XII, but I worked this scenario out instead. Whaddya think?

    Please be gentle...I don't take harsh criticism well!

  4. #84
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    No criticism here Tm... you put a lot of work into it and it's as good as a rational as I've seen.

    I still feel that either Jenna and Heidi is going. I usually hate Pagonging, but in their case, I'll make an exception. Plus I'd hate to see Rob leave.
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


  5. #85
    Leo
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    It's a fair analysis. I don't agree with all your conclusions, but I can see where it's coming from.

  6. #86
    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    Well, in this thread, we're playing along with the "F2 Spoiler", which says that Matthew and Jenna are the final 2. It may be a load of hooey, but if Heidi went next, how would we "get there from here"?

  7. #87
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    Easy.

    Jenna wins an immunity challenge or two - then you decide who you want to take with you to the F2.

    Matt probably feels that more people respect him than Jenna so he carries her.
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


  8. #88
    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    That works, too.

  9. #89
    Leo
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    I actually think that Heidi leaving soon helps Jenna. They have been pretty much waving their alliance in the face of everyone else. So there's heat on them - but that heat would be mainly on Jenna, not Heidi. Jenna is the one playing the game, could potentially stir up trouble, and keep in mind Christy isn't too fond of her.

    With Heidi gone, in my opinion, the heat would then go to three people: Rob (his double-crossing's going to cost him sooner or later), and Christy and Butch (both viewed as people you do NOT want sitting alongside you in the final two).

    So, in an odd way, Heidi leaving actually helps put Jenna in the final two.

  10. #90
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    They have to split the girls up so tonight Heidi goes. Next Rob has served his purpose to Butch, Matt and Christy so they get rid of him next. Next episode the plan might be to get rid of Jenna but she ends up winning immunity so the vote goes to Christy. Final 3, either Jenna or Matt wins immunity opting to vote out Butch because he hasn't appeared to wrong anyone therefore there is a big chance he might become the sole survivor so they feel threatned by him so off he goes. Leaving Matt and Jenna as the final two.

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