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Thread: Survivor: Cook Islands Mutiny Manifest(12/7) – Could I Be Anymore Wrong?

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    Can They Do It?? mrdobolina's Avatar
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    Survivor: Cook Islands Mutiny Manifest(12/7) – Could I Be Anymore Wrong?

    Survivor: Cook Islands Mutiny Manifest(12/7) – Could I Be Anymore Wrong?

    Welcome to another edition of the Survivor Mutiny Manifest, where each week we’ll be breaking down each castaway’s alliances and strategies on their path to a million dollars. You know they are all trying to work it out in their heads…who can I get on my side? Who won’t be upset at me when I vote them out? Who will respect what I have done in the game? Who’s talking trash about me? It’s getting close to the end, and the players have a lot more thinking to do this year since the jury started early and there are likely to be more voters to worry about.

    Now I must admit I have never been very good at this whole “breaking down strategies” thing. I tend to think emotionally instead of rationally, but I’m trying. Rationally, Jonathan should have been everyone’s choice to take to the finals. Come on…he’s the only villain this year and I can’t find anything I truly dislike about any of the remaining castaways...or for that matter any of the jury members. There is only one bad guy, and his name is Jonathan. Even Johnny Fairplay could win against this Jon. Ok, maybe not, but you get my point.

    Again, I’m going to list the players in the order I think they will finish based on the information that I gather from the show and the show only. There are some spoilers out there that I have heard about, but as far as I am concerned they are rumors until I see them play out on the show. I am going to add color to all of the remaining castaways based on what I know about Survivor from seasons past. So now, without anymore dilly dallying, here’s the list of who is wheeling, who is dealing, and who is reeling.

    Yul
    It’s Yul’s game to win or lose at this point. At least that’s what I think. The big question is if he will be able to win an immunity challenge when he needs to or not. Ozzy is a powerhouse, challenge-wise, but Yul has proven to be the master strategy-wise. If I recall my Survivor history correctly, being solely a mastermind has only made one person a winner at Survivor, and that would be Richard Hatch. Hatch manipulated the voting and lost challenges right down to the final Tribal Council…he even threw the final immunity challenge knowing that whoever won was going to have to take him to the end to even have a chance at winning. Unlike Hatch, at some point Yul is going to have to win an immunity, allowing him to truly control who gets sent to Loser Lodge that night. That win will get Ozzy out of his hair, and onto the jury. Up to now, Yul has really been playing a masterful game. He found the idol and used it to his advantage at a key point in the game for him and his alliance. He convinced Jonathan to flip back with the Aitu four, giving them a majority without having to actually surrender the idol. Yes, everyone knows he has the idol…they have even seen it with their own eyes. It gives Yul actual power, unlike Terry last season. Last season, everyone could only speculate whether or not Terry actually had the idol. That speculation likely saved Terry’s butt when he didn’t win immunity, but still, he didn’t actually get to wield the idol like Yul has this season. Yul will be in the final four. That much I can guarantee.

    Becky
    I believe that Becky thinks she has Yul right where she wants him. Where is that exactly? Well, it’s her sitting in his front pocket. Becky is a tag along at best, and I’m not sure why I am even wasting space in this article to talk about her. Her best strategic move? Having a Korean heritage like Yul and being put on his tribe from the get go. The only reason she is where she’s at is because Yul approached her to form an alliance. I’ll give her credit for never going behind his back, but that’s about it. Sure, she was probably a voice of reason for Yul at a couple of points along the way, but as far as I can tell, she hasn’t made a single strategic decision without consulting Yul. Now that Jonathan is gone, Becky is really the only person Yul could bring with him to the final Tribal Council and expect to beat, because Becky is vanilla in the eyes of the jury. Yul played the game and made moves. Becky simply rode on his back.

    Ozzy
    Ozzy is the only castaway that, in my opinion, has been playing an individual game since day 1. It was by his insistence that his original tribe threw a challenge in order to vote Billy out, and it was his knowledge of outdoorsy stuff that kept himself and everyone else fed with a roof over their heads. All the while, he insisted he was not the leader, since he knows that leaders lead the way to Loser Lodge. I’m still standing by my theory that Ozzy is going to go on an immunity tear because he has to. He knows that the second Adam is gone and he doesn’t win immunity, he is gone. He could make a play with Parvati and Adam, but what are they going to do? Vote Yul off and force him to use the idol? It’d only send someone else home. The only way I see that plan working is if everyone works together against Yul, and honestly, I don’t think Becky or Sundra have it in them. The only way Ozzy finishes better than third is if he wins every immunity after Adam is voted out. It could happen, and I sure wouldn’t mind if it did. I’ve come to admire Ozzy’s scrappiness. The guy is a real competitor.

    Sundra
    As always, there isn’t much to be said about Sundra. She has scraped along with her under the radar strategy, and it has done well for her. Honestly, I still don’t understand how she made it out of a realigned Aitu after being an alliance of one on that tribe. She is either the nicest person in the world who makes friends easily, or went so far undercover that nobody on that tribe knew she was there. Does she have any fight in her to make a move that will actually benefit her and keep her from a fourth place finish? Not likely. If she hasn’t made a move before now, she never will.

    Parvati
    Will Adam and Parvati make a move to save themselves? Crazier things have happened, that’s for sure. Still, from what I know from watching the show, I have to believe these two are the next to go. Parvati had a nice win at the reward challenge, and not only enjoyed the actual reward with her Dad and others, but also got to relish in the fact that she could send Jonathan to Exile Island and work on the Aituans in his absence. The best thing she and Adam did was just to relax and enjoy the company around camp without Jonathan. Oh yeah, and she brought the leftover food from the reward challenge to share with the rest of the Not-Jonathans. I’m sure she did more to convince Yul and the rest that Jonathan should go before her and Adam, but it probably wasn’t much, since, as I’ll point out later, everyone pretty much despises Jonathan. Still, Parvati’s biggest chance lies in winning immunity challenges, and since I think Ozzy could win the rest of those, I don’t see anyone risking a majority alliance to team up with the minority.

    Adam
    Adam’s got that winning smile and some charm to boot. Unfortunately for him, he is many days late in using that charm to win friends and influence people. Now all he’s got is that smile…and some muscles to help him win challenges. I feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record…that the castaways need to win immunities at this point to make it to the end and send Yul home. But they do. It’s the only way. I know I’ve laid out a scenario where Ozzy, Parvati, and Adam team up to take on Yul and his idol, but it’s really too late in the game now. Now that Jonathan is gone, Yul expects Adam and Parvati to keep their word that they will vote for the mastermind come final Tribal Council. And that is one of Yul’s main motivations right now…to stack the jury

    I Guess That Didn’t Work!
    What did I miss when analyzing Jonathan? I guess most of all I just missed exactly how much everyone disliked the guy. The sad thing is, they all didn’t see exactly how valuable the jury’s dislike of Jonathan is toward the end of the game. Did you see the jury reacting to everything that was said about Jonathan, and to everything that he said? The entire jury was scowling the second he opened his mouth, or at the first syllable of his name. They hate him, the remaining castaways hate him, I’d bet even the crew hates him. It’s worth a million dollars to the person that got him to the final 2, because even if Yul backstabbed everyone else to end up in the finals with Jonathan, Yul would still get all the votes

    The worst thing that could have happened for Jonathan was either Parvati or Adam winning the reward challenge and sending him to isolation on Exile Island Jonathan’s absence gave everyone at Aitutonga the chance to see what camp life is like without his arrogance and rat play. Parvati and Adam eased up and showed off their true personalities, and then they brought back all the extra food from reward, easily solidifying themselves into Yul, Becky, and Ozzy’s good graces. At least Jonathan had the sense to know the tide had turned while he was away at Exile Island. He saw it coming, and could tell from everyone’s responses to the question “Is it still Adam tonight” that he was headed out. He plead his case as well as he could at Tribal Council, but it was too late at that point, and Jonathan is annoying everyone at Loser Lodge now.

    There’s a rat in the lodge, what am I gonna do? mrdobolina@fansofrealitytv.com
    Last edited by mrdobolina; 12-16-2006 at 03:15 PM.
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  2. #2
    Livin' the life Dinahann's Avatar
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    I agree with your assessment mrd; great as always! I'll miss Jonathan, if only for the drama he provided. Actually, I really liked him.
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    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
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    Great analysis Mr D!

    I kind of wonder if Becky or Sundra weren't more inclined to go along with booting Jonathan because of the goat factor. He's such a perfect person to take to the final two that he kind of ruins THEIR strategy of being carried along to the final two.
    If you go through a lot of hammers each month, I don't think it necessarily means you're a hard worker.
    It may just mean that you have a lot to learn about proper hammer maintenance.


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    Miss Universe HelenHandbasket's Avatar
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    At this point it's next to impossible for Yul not to make the final 3. A group of people including Aitus would have to get together, vote for Yul, hope that Yul didn't vote for them, because then they'd be kicked out. Then they'd have to vote Yul out again the next reward challenge. I just don't see that happening.

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    Leo
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    Excellent analysis, mrdob.

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    Can They Do It?? mrdobolina's Avatar
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    Miss F, that's a great point. Sundra and Becky (especially Becky after the conversation she had with Yul the episode before) likely knew what Yul was thinking in regards to Jonathan. The only reason he voted with them this week was to lead them to believe that he wasn't really planning on taking Jon to the end.
    "You don't own a TV?!? What's all your furniture pointed at?" Joey Tribianni

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    FORT Newbie getreal2007's Avatar
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    Hindsight is 20-20 but I believe by voting Jonathan out they made a strategic error. Adam should have gone last week with Parvati going this week. The final four could have been Yul, Becky, Sundra, Ozzy but I see an upset this week with one of those four getting voted out. Without Jonathan's vote they are no longer in control.

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