Thanks a lot for doing this!
It's still early to postulate, but I'll share some observations.
Hmm... I find Nate's increase in confessionals suspicious. He didn't have any storyline this past episode, and the others on his tribe had only one confessional. I'd guess that makes him slightly more likely to be leaving within two episodes. If I had to guess who is next based solely on these confessional counts, I'd pick Nate.
Ozzy and Cristina definitely dominated this past episode, but they were the key dramatic players in addition to Billy, so I don't think that alone means anything. Yul's high count is mostly due to exile island, and with the hidden idol we KNOW he's safe for a while.
Cao Boi's 6/2 looks suspicious to me. I'm glad they focused less on him this episode, because I was afraid they'd show him all the time every episode and drive me crazy like they did with Rory and Eliza in Vanuatu. I think he'll definitely be the first of Puka to get the boot, even if the semi-merge is next episode, which I'd guess it is.
I would venture to say that Adam, Candice, Pavarti, and Brad's lack of any face time whatsoever in confessionals, even with the "lazy" storyline and the passionate secret love affair between Candice/Billy (so secret she didn't even know about it), means they've got more story coming later, so they're likely safe unless their count raises drastically next time.