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Thread: Very Interesting Statistic about Final 4

  1. #1
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    Very Interesting Statistic about Final 4

    I just saw this on another website:

    "The last 6 players to win F4 immunity went on to win the game - Vee, Brian, Jenna, Amber, Chris, and Tom. Winners of F4 immunity are 7/9 at winning F3 IC and 9/9 at making F2."

    "Also, the F4 immunity winner has ALWAYS made it to the F2. Always."

    If so, then this would be very interesting to keep track of whether the trend continues tonight.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by VinceDee View Post
    I just saw this on another website:

    "The last 6 players to win F4 immunity went on to win the game - Vee, Brian, Jenna, Amber, Chris, and Tom. Winners of F4 immunity are 7/9 at winning F3 IC and 9/9 at making F2."

    "Also, the F4 immunity winner has ALWAYS made it to the F2. Always."

    If so, then this would be very interesting to keep track of whether the trend continues tonight.
    Interesting indeed! It would seem that the F4 winner would have a 2/3 chance of being in the final 2 not a 100% chance (if they win the F4 immunity they are automatically one of the last 3). And only a 1/3 chance of winning, not more than twice that. Maybe one of the last 3 players has almost always been a UTR type who isn't really in the "competition"? Would change the odds some.
    Maybe the F4 winner is almost always a strong player so often wins the F3 immunity as well? Are both the F4 and F3 contests always physical? I know the last one is always some kind of endurance thing, but don't have any memory of the next to last one.

  3. #3
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    Very interesting.

    In the case of the person who wins the second to last challenge also winning the last challenge, the two challenges are so different that we really can't draw correlations between the two. By this time, the toughest competition is usually gone, which has played a role in giving some of the finalists an edge no matter who they go up against.

    Much of the time by this point the final two are already decided. Vecepia was going to the F2 no matter what because everyone considered her the weakest link (too bad Neleh ran up against the most bitter jury ever). Then there was Rob, who'd marry Amber given the chance.

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    I think the reason the statistics are skewed is because in many of the past Survivors, we've either had an extremely strong contestant in the final 4 or somebody who happened to hit a hot streak.

    Kelly was pretty much the most athletic in Borneo; Colby was by far the strongest; Kim Johnson was on fire at the end; Neleh was younger and in better shape; Brian won everything all the time; Jenna hit a hot streak; Lill had the squatting skills to pull her through in the end; Rob was the most athletic; Chris was very strong towards the end; and Tom was definitely the strongest, since one of his competitors was a dead log.

    In this case, I think besides Lydia, the final contestants are pretty much a toss up on who will win. Rafe has been the strongest in IC thus far, but Steph and Danni are both extremely fit and competitive. I think this season may break the trend.

  5. #5
    FORT Guru ThePinkOtterPop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VinceDee View Post
    I just saw this on another website:

    "The last 6 players to win F4 immunity went on to win the game - Vee, Brian, Jenna, Amber, Chris, and Tom. Winners of F4 immunity are 7/9 at winning F3 IC and 9/9 at making F2."

    "Also, the F4 immunity winner has ALWAYS made it to the F2. Always."

    If so, then this would be very interesting to keep track of whether the trend continues tonight.
    This is now moot since Rafe did not win the game. Now you got Richard, Tina, Ethan, Sandra, and Danni who didn't win the F4 immunity but went on to win the entire game.

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