In the Who is your winner right now thread we've been projecting who might win.
But more than just projecting that, for me one of the most "fun" parts of this final four stage is extending that projection to analyzing the jury, and how they might vote with each potential finalist. Its kind of a "game theory" excercise.
So the jury is...
Blobby John Cowpoke, Jamie the Psycho, Gary "Boom Boom" Hoggwhatever, Judd "Scumbag" Doorman, Cindy The Zookeeper + the next two boots
Obviously a lot depends on HOW the next two boots occur. That, in fact, not only affects their votes but in some ways maybe also some of the people on the fence who are already on the jury. But I think we can still project.
Theoretical final two: Steph v. Lydia
Blobby: Hesitantly... for Lydia.
Jamie: I think despite it all, Steph.
Gary: Steph. He still admires her.
Judd: Lydia. Cursing all the way
Cindy: Lydia. She will feel Lydia's hand was forced in her own boot.
Danni: Steph, even if Steph herself was responsible for her boot.
Rafe: Hard to say. It would depend on how his boot occured. Probably still Steph.
Steph probably wins. Barely. Maybe. Rafe would be the swing, or maybe Cindy.
Theoretical final two: Steph v. Rafe - note I think this is a very unlikely finale...
Gary: Hard to say. Probably Rafe, but who knows?
Judd: Rafe will be the lesser of two evils to him... but not by much.
Cindy: Rafe, despite the fact that she tried to get him booted.
Danni: Steph. She may feel Rafe betrayed her.
Lydia: Rafe. I think. But who actually understands the mind of Lydia?
So hard to call (good thing this ending is so unlikely). Rafe has the advantage though.
Theoretical final two: Steph v. Danni
Gary: Danni. (he doesn't blame her for his boot, I bet)
Judd: Danni. Even though she got him booted, she also had no promises to him.
Cindy: Hard to say. For some strange reason I always got the feeling she didn't like Danni much. But who's "betrayal" will hit her harder? Probably Stephs. So Danni, I guess, gets her vote.
Rafe: Depends on who backstabs him. All things being even, he'd probably vote for Steph... but they may not be even.
Lydia: If she scents out the rest of the jury is for one or the other, she will follow along like a lemming. Ergo, she votes Danni. Unless Danni was somehow directly responsible for her boot.
Almost definitely, Danni wins this match... The good news is I don't think Steph will be able to predict these votes, other than Gary and Judd.
Theoretical final two: Danni v. Lydia
Jamie: Danni (Lydia will irritate him on principal, I bet)
Judd: Lydia. For him it will be a protest vote to let the idiot win.
Cindy: Lydia? Danni? I don't know. Probably Lydia.
Rafe: Would hate to vote Lydia but would do it if Danni backstabbed him.
Steph: Hard to call. I think she actually respects Danni, so even if Danni has her booted she might go for her.
Theoretical final two: Danni v. Rafe
Blobby: Hard to call. I don't quite recall what he thought of Rafe. I can see him voting "hot girl" over "gay guy" just because, though...
Jamie: Danni. Less water under the bridge...
Cindy: Rafe. I think. Unless the car whining is sharp in her memory.
Steph: Depends on the backstab. Probably votes Danni.
Danni wins, but I'm not sure about Cindy and Steph's votes.
Theoretical final two: Rafe v. Lydia
Jamie: Hard to call. Probably Rafe, but he'd hate it.
Gary: Rafe. For sure.
Cindy: Hard to call. Probably Lydia, since she'll probably remember the car whining.
Steph: Rafe. She'd rather vote for someone she's mad at than someone she pities.
Danni: In the end... Rafe. Unless the backstab was viscous.
Rafe likely wins this scenario.
In other words... Lydia is the "magic bullet" as a F2 partner for everyone. They can all beat her, and I bet they all know this.