+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 18

Thread: How To Get To The Final 2

  1. #1
    FORT Regular jimothy21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    54

    How To Get To The Final 2

    Tom - Tom basically has 2 alliances that he can go with at the moment: The Four (Tom, Ian, Katie, Steph) or The Five (Tom, Ian, Katie, Gregg, Jenn). Tom would be smart to go with The Four, since it is possible to pull off now that there is seven left. Plus, Gregg is already plotting against him. Tom is vulnerable simply because he is the leader of Koror. Any "revolution" in the tribe will begin with the king's head getting lopped off. At Four, Tom could then stick to his Core Three alliance of him, Ian, and Katie and get rid of Steph. At that point, it's either up to Tom to win final immunity or Ian (I believe Ian will take Tom to F2 if it comes down to it). If Tom makes it to the Final Three, he is in the finals and a good bet to win.

    Ian - Ian just has to ride Tom's coattails, going along for the ride to the Final Four mentioned above. At that point, Ian can either drop Steph or drop Tom (not Katie!). Either way he goes, he needs to win the final immunity and bring in Katie (but I doubt he will); I don't think he could win against Tom or Steph. But if it came down to those two, he'd have a better chance against Steph. To summarize: get to the F3 with Tom and Katie. Either win final immunity and take Katie, or if by the grace of god Katie wins, convince her to take him to the F2.

    Katie - Katie has to be sitting pretty right now. She has 3 potential alliances: The Four, The Five, and The Girls (her, Jenn, Steph, and Caryn). Since the third alliance doesn't seem likely, I'd advise Katie to stick with The Five, getting rid of her biggest threat Steph early. Then she should team up with Jenn and Ian and get rid of Tom first and then Gregg. At that point, she can rest assured that Ian will take her to the F2 if he wins final immunity. Jenn might also take her to the F2. Really, anyone in there right mind will take Katie to the F2. As for her chances of actually winning...

    Steph - Steph, moreso than anyone else left on the island, has to make some big moves in order to advance. Her best bet would be to drop this Girls alliance and approach Gregg about making a New Four alliance of them two, Jenn, and Caryn. Steph already knows Gregg was going to break away from The Five once it got down to 7 people, thanks to Coby's big mouth. I'm sure Gregg would take her offer. I'd take out Tom first, and then Katie. At Five, Steph should take the final outsider, Ian, and ask him to vote with her and Caryn against Gregg and Jenn. Then at three, she should be able to win the final immunity and then take Caryn. A guaranteed win. To summarize: team up with Gregg, Jenn, and Caryn to vote out Tom and Katie. At five, team up with Ian and Caryn to vote out Gregg and Jenn. At three, win the final immunity and take Caryn to the F2.

    Gregg - It's do or die time for Gregg. There are only 7 people left and he needs to turn on his Five alliance next in order to advance to the Final Four. He should team up with Steph, Jenn, and Caryn for a New Four alliance. Do this first and then convince Caryn to vote out Steph at Four. At three, Gregg can win final immunity and take Caryn. In fact, he could take Jenn and still likely win. Jenn would likely take Gregg if she won final immunity, so if he can make Final Three with those two, then he has a good chance of going to the very end and winning. Another option: Gregg can vote out Tom and Ian with his New Four alliance, and then recruit Katie to join him and Jenn to take out Caryn and Steph. The Final Three rule for him still applies, only this time if Katie wins she could take Caryn to the final with her. I predict easy wins against either Caryn, Jenn, or Katie.

    Jenn - Jenn is lucky to be protected by Gregg. At this point, she should follow the plan I proposed for Gregg above, the only difference is that she would have to win final immunity and take Caryn/Katie to the final instead of her boytoy.

    Caryn - Caryn's situation is interesting. She has nothing to offer anyone except her vote. But at seven, her vote can easily mean a big difference to the warring factions. She should approach whomever and try to negotiate a Final Four deal. She can go to Tom, Ian, Katie (not a good choice) or do The Girls alliance (not likely), or she can convince Gregg and Jenn to team up with her and Steph. The only problem with that is that she can't really beat any of them in front of the jury. Really, she should just find some way to take Katie to the F2 with her, but that scenario seems highly unlikely. Her next best bet would be Jenn, so, if I was Caryn, I'd team up with Gregg, Jenn, and Steph now, dump Steph at Four, win final immunity and take Jenn to the F2 and hope for the best.
    Last edited by jimothy21; 04-23-2005 at 04:15 AM.

  2. #2
    FORT Fan
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    335
    Hehe, most interested in your approach as to how Steph should build her game to reach the Final 2 just because I support her so much!

    Yep...here is my take.

    3 possible alliances:
    1) Tom, Ian, Katie & herself.
    2) Gregg, Jenn, Caryn & herself.
    3) Girl's alliance.

    I think the alliance no. 1) will be the best. After forming the alliance, I think she will have to break it at Final 5, by allying with Katie and the other person, to vote off Tom or Ian. Will this hurt her chances in the jury? Perhaps so.

    Seeing how much Jenn and Greg wants to get rid of Jenn, I doubt that alliance no. 2) will be possible.

    As mentioned by jimothy21, alliance no. 3) is highly unlikely to occur.

    Although she can form so many alliances for next, she is still in such a vulnerable position for the next week. The immunity challenge is still the safest bet. Been pretty disappointed in her performance at the 2 individual immunity challenge so far. That is for me at least. By winning the next immunity challenge, she should be able to last til the F4 IMO.

  3. #3
    FORT Regular jimothy21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    54
    Quote Originally Posted by xtremist
    3 possible alliances:
    1) Tom, Ian, Katie & herself.
    2) Gregg, Jenn, Caryn & herself.
    3) Girl's alliance.

    I think the alliance no. 1) will be the best. After forming the alliance, I think she will have to break it at Final 5, by allying with Katie and the other person, to vote off Tom or Ian. Will this hurt her chances in the jury? Perhaps so.
    I thought this could work too, but only if she can convince Tom that Gregg and Jenn were planning to turn on him and the rest. Right now, it still seems like Tom wants to stick with the Five alliance, as evidenced by his comments the other night about the game and his willingness to cut Stephenie. I certainly hope she makes it farther. I just hope she has the sense to dump a Girls alliance. Not gonna happen.

  4. #4
    where's my rose garden? Covaleskie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    117
    Very insightful!

    I hope either Stephanie, Tom, or Ian has/had that much foresight while in the middle of the game. I hate it when the final four devolves into one strong player (let's say, Gregg) taking along two or three weak players (hmmm, possibly Katie, Jenn, and Caryn) just because they're looking for an easy Final Two choice.

    The Tom, Ian, Stephane, and one other person (don't really care who it is, 'cause no one outside of that group could beat any of those three in F2) final four is my prefered outcome of the game.
    There's always one in every bunch.

  5. #5
    FORT Newbie sweet_tooth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    36
    After last night's episode I am really questioning all of the member's abilities to realign where necessary. It seemed to me that there was a lot of naivety involved.

    I felt that Stephanie had a power position from the moment Coby took her aside and filled her in on the tribal alliances, but she didn't even propose to anyone that they realign with her and use her vote last night. She wasn't even the one to propose the girl's alliance....Katie was.

    Gregg is so focused on voting Stephanie out as soon as possible because she is a threat, that he wasn't thinking about how he could use her to his advantage.

    I am under the impression that Jenn is more interested in a relationship with Gregg than in using him to get to the final two...which makes me think that she doesn't give much thought to the idea of turning the tables on him to get the final two. She is also not thinking about the fact that Gregg seemed to set up the relationship from the get-go so there would be no guilt on his part if he had to stab her in the back.

    Tom...well...I lost all faith in Tom's ability to strategize when he listened to Gregg and voted out Stephanie instead of using her to his advantage. Come on Tom. You should know better.

    Caryn, well...someone forgot to tell her what game she is playing. I still can't believe that she went straight back to Tom and told him everything about the girl alliance.

    You can't say Ian without thinking of Tom. I don't think that is going to change.

    Katie is the only one who showed some smarts last night. Too bad she lacks follow-through.

    I am losing faith in anyone being slightly conniving and strategic. Seems to me that everyone is doing just what Gregg wants by "Sticking to the plan."

  6. #6
    Under Investigation Tirlittan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    2,092
    My thoughts...

    This is the most loyal bunch of Survivors to date IMO. The women should have kept Steph and voted one of the guys out, but they didn't. Big mistake, but well, I like Tom and Ian so I am happy they are still around.

    I do not think Gregg has a chance getting to final 2, but anyone else could get there, theoretically.

    First, Tom and Ian are relatively loyal to each other, and it seems that Caryn is loyal to Tom, and Caryn is too honest to actually play this game (god forbid Caryn would backstab such an honest great leader as Tom ). Second, Gregg and Jenn alliance is even tighter than Ian & Tom, so Katie will rather side with Ian and Tom because she has some hope breaking Tom&Ian alliance whereas Gregg&Jenn alliance is a lost cause to Katie (or anyone else for that matter). Therefore, the next person to go will be Gregg (unless he wins immunity) because he is the stronger half of the tightest alliance left.

    Then, because Tom and Ian are so damn tight and Caryn will only trust Tom, after Gregg it will be either Jenn or Katie to go because Tom (and Ian) can trust Caryn more that either of the younger women. And Caryn still likes Tom the best. Likely it will be Jenn to go because Tom/Ian/Katie want to assure each other that they have each others vote no matter what happens (F2 in their minds here) after this vote.

    Maybe then it will be do or die for Tom and Ian. They are loyal to each other, but they know they are each others biggest threats, and there will be no sorry feelings when one of them goes. So, only one of them (Tom/Ian) will go to Final 3 and likely win the final immunity (which is always some sort of endurance/strong will thingy). And whomever they choose to take with them to F2, they will defeat, simply because in the end Tom/Ian did not anger people all that much and they clearly dominated physically. What wrongs they did can be forgiven easily, they are no Boston Rob . Ian and Tom have played a good and relatively clean game. So, I predict the winner will be either Tom or Ian. And unless Tom wins the final 4 immunity the winner will be Ian because Tom is an even bigger threat to women than Ian. Of course there is the possibility that one of the women would win the final immunity and neither Tom nor Ian get to F2 , but how on earth Katie and/or Caryn could win an (endurance) immunity... I just do not have any faith in them managing to pull that one .
    ps. This is just my opinion in the matter.

  7. #7
    I Think I Can Dance. Aota Bass's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Chicago
    Age
    32
    Posts
    1,878
    Well, Tirlittan, you were spot on about Gregg's demise this week!

    I'd have to agree with you about the next move as well- likely we'll be saying bye to Jennifer- it's too bad in a way- I'd rather see Katie go, but oh well...

    Unless the girls make their own scramble and vote out the bigger threat, Tom or Ian. But I also can't see Caryn turning her back on that alliance. Maybe if by some chance Jen wins immunity then they could get Jenn, Katie, and Ian to vote out Tom... but that's doubtful.
    And I sing sometimes like my life is at stake because you're only as loud as the noises you make.

  8. #8
    FORT Regular
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    66
    Wow... how do I get to the final two either be really good on the immunity challenges or tbe the person that everyone wants to take at the end...

    We're left with five people: Tom, Ian, Jenn, Katie, and Caryn...

    Tom and Ian really have the same strategy. Keep winning the immunity and take one of the ladies (and probably not Jenn because she would get Gregg's vote). The only fly in the ointment is that these two guys do seem to really like each other and have helped each other all the way through. If both of them were in the final three and one of them won final immunity, would the winner not take the other? It's a dumb strategy if you want to win the million dollars because Tom or Ian would probably beat any of the woman but would would beat whom in the head to head....

    Jenn, Katie, and Caryn.... have to win immunity to get to the final two and if there were two women in the final three, if a woman won final immunity they would have to talk the other woman. I dont think any of them could take Tom or Ian in a final vote.

    At this point in time, it makes even more sense to have the woman become an alliance and vote off at least one of the males this week.

  9. #9
    swimming toward chaos kerry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    38
    Quote Originally Posted by Starpower
    At this point in time, it makes even more sense to have the woman become an alliance and vote off at least one of the males this week.
    I couldn't agree more! I think the women would be idiots to not vote out whichever male player does not get immunity, or Tom if a woman wins it. But, alas, I'd lay odds that this won't happen.

    If it did, however, the next step would be to eliminate the other male (if possible) or Jenn. If it comes down to three women in the final three, I hope Caryn and Katie get to the final 2 and that Caryn wins it. She's the least annoying of the women, but not by much. (I really don't care for Katie; she's a prime example of the peter principle.) If one of the guys makes it to the final 2, I don't know if he'd take it. The jury's pretty bitter this season and just might give it to anybody BUT Tom or Ian just out of spite.

  10. #10
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    1,064
    Quote Originally Posted by kerry
    I couldn't agree more! I think the women would be idiots to not vote out whichever male player does not get immunity, or Tom if a woman wins it. But, alas, I'd lay odds that this won't happen.

    If it did, however, the next step would be to eliminate the other male (if possible) or Jenn. If it comes down to three women in the final three, I hope Caryn and Katie get to the final 2 and that Caryn wins it. She's the least annoying of the women, but not by much. (I really don't care for Katie; she's a prime example of the peter principle.) If one of the guys makes it to the final 2, I don't know if he'd take it. The jury's pretty bitter this season and just might give it to anybody BUT Tom or Ian just out of spite.
    You know, you make a good point. The jury will consist of a group of pretty angry bitches, Gregg, and whoever else goes at the next couple of TC. We've all assumed that the players would see Tom and Ian as the great players we see them as, but as we all know from past Survivors', they see things much differently. Steph may be mad enough at Tom and Ian to vote against them. Coby didn't care for Tom or Ian and would definitely vote in favor of Caryn, should she be in the F2 againt T or I. Janu do the same as Coby, given how she felt she was treated.... The more I think about it, the more I think one of the women would be smart to want to take one of the men and Tom and Ian should try to take each other to the F2, to ensure they at least have a chance in the eyes (and hearts) of their peers...

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.