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Thread: Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 27) - Scout's Big Plan

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    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 27) - Scout's Big Plan

    Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Ten
    Scout's Big Plan

    The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Alinta tribe. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?

    The reports continue to get shorter as we chop down the remaining survivors. I have to admit they would get short anyway with this group. Chris is playing, Ami is playing, and Scout tried to play. Otherwise, most everyone else is trying to go back under the radar realizing that soon they will be eating each other. I hope something good happens this week, because honestly, this season isnít very exciting from a game play standpoint, though I do give Ami huge credit (though undoubtedly not as much as she would give her smug self) for keeping the women in line this far into the game.

    Alinta

    This week Ami remained in charge and she is certainly not looking to give that up anytime soon. As expected, Scoutís master plan to take down Eliza, followed by Ami, fizzled, and now she herself is likely in danger. What drama we will get out of this season will likely happen in the next two weeks. Basically, everyone knows that Ami is in control, and even more perplexing is that Scout and Twila both likely realize they are #6 and #5 on the chopping block, yet they have failed to utilize the male votes remaining to save themselves.

    It is too late now though for Scout and Twila, as I am convinced Chris has his own deal in place with someone and the previews confirm that he is going to use Scoutís actions against her. Does that mean he will survive to the end? Maybe, but still very unlikely. Whomever he is working with likely sees him as a pawn that has to obey given his position in the game. I think Chris can weasel his way out of it, but it is long odds.

    As for who Chris is working with, I still have to think it is Ami or Eliza. No one would suspect Ami of working with him, and I am quite sure Chris knows who the real boss of the ladies is. Just speculation on my part, as we have not yet been given an adequate explanation for his actions the last two weeks. I could be way off base. Maybe he is working with no one, and was just trying to ensure he was the last man left, and thus potentially safe.

    Chris also played an interesting card this week when he claimed Sarge told him to vote for his ouster. It was clearly a lie, as Chris himself admitted. Chad reacted surprised, but didnít seem to pursue it beyond that point, probably because he was too busy trying to think of a way to save himself. However, I have to wonder why Chris made that statement. There was no need to say anything. The vote was not close in the previous tribal council, and not all votes were read, as far as we know. Therefore, he said it as part of strategy versus having to say it. If he cut a deal with someone, then he owed no explanation to Chad, who he would know is going next. Instead, he said it for the benefit of some group of women. Perhaps Twila? I am just not sure, but there is a lot going on with Chris that we just donít know yet.

    Seems like a bit too much editing by MB and company to keep us in the dark. As a hypothetical, I would hate to find a similar result to that of Amazon where a survivor wins the most lopsided vote in the history of the game, and we have no idea how they won so easily because the editing covers up too much. I feel that is the track we are on here.

    Twila behaved interestingly this week. She was openly rebuffed by Ami when asking about the vote, and yet she still wants to hang on tight to whatever Ami wants. She gave the reason that forcing a 4-4 tie would invoke the purple rock of doom, but do we know that? I do suspect that a tie breaker would not involve a comparison of previous votes, because I donít recall Jeff reading all the votes. However, they have used other methods, so assuming that the very unpopular purple rock solution would used is jumping to a big conclusion. Or perhaps Twila just wanted to get Scout back on board.

    Speaking of Scout, she committed game suicide this week, and it is somewhat long overdue in my opinion. First, she decided to take a shot at Eliza then Ami without having all her votes locked in. She openly told Ami what the plan was (which may have been okay, since Leann heard the original plot), giving her time to get everyone back in line. Then she confirmed to Chad she would vote for Eliza just before tribal, meaning she will lose his vote if by some miracle she makes the final two. Ami has probably been hoping that someone would jump up and make themselves an obvious target besides Eliza, who has been loyal to her, so now I expect her to move against Scout soon.

    Julie, Leann and Eliza are all under the radar right now, but they may notice that they have controlling interest in how the Scout/Ami conflict is resolved. I suspect all three would side with Ami against Scout, but anyone of them could organize the uprising against Ami that will likely occur the week after.

    Leann is looking very strong for the final four.

    I Guess That Didnít Work

    Chad got the boot this week, spoiling my guess that he would outlast Chris. Chad and Chris supposedly had about 25 plans to get themselves out of this mess, but in the end, Chadís plan consisted of trusting Scout to save him. Bad plan.

    Next Week

    Ami continues to look smug. Letís all hope for some twists and turns to get our attention back.

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
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    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    Great analysis, Bill! I agree with everything!

    Regarding Ami, I strongly suspect she really is all about voting the men off first, then consulting her little totem pole list. Even though I dislike Ami for being so smug about everything, I dislike the other women for following her like sheep. That is unless they turn on her soon.

    But back to Ami, I really think she will look past any differences - even outright disagreements - regarding voting from the women, in order to finish off Chris. Even though this looks really bad for Chris, I still think he has an ace up his sleeve.
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    Combat Missions Fan Wolf's Avatar
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    I agree with you Zais, in that, I think right now Ami just wants all the men out first regardless of the in-fighting with the women. She can take care of Scout, Twila, or whoever crosses her after her threat, Chris, is gone. It might be a little too late, because I have a suspicion that Leann is just waiting for the right moment to turn on Ami.

    Several episodes back Chris said he had seperate deals with Sarge, Chad, and Julie, so I think he is still working with Julie. Julie is very sneaky, so she could be trying to throw all the women off by making them think that she's all about the 'girl power' just to inch her way up in the ranks. Or maybe, it's really late, and I'm just delirious.

    Thanks for your insights, Bill. Great job.

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    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    I am enjoying the irony of Ami's play. She appears completely committed to removing the last man. In doing so, she all but eliminates her chance of winning, as the three men would be a solid voting block against her in F2, if she gets that far.

    On the other hand, she's so far down the road with the women that turning on them now might be suicide.

    The way things are now, Ami might possibly beat Eliza in F2, but only if she avoids backstabbing anybody along the way. I don't think Eliza gets that far, and I don't think Ami can avoid delivering a backstab.

    I tend to doubt that Chris has any deal at all. At most, he has deluded himself into believing he has a deal. He appears rather desperate to me. I hope I'm wrong.

    Bill, nice job! I agree that Leann is nicely placed, and probably better than fourth.
    Last edited by Fossil; 11-22-2004 at 03:33 AM.

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    I Think I Can Dance. Aota Bass's Avatar
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    I totally agree with this analysis- i guess it's hard to argue given the predictability of the past few weeks...

    Leann and Julie really seem to be in good positions (knock on wood- I like them).

    I tend to lean towards Fossil's opinion, that Chris is basically doomed and knows it, but will try anything he can to sneak past elimination this week. however, I'll be very surprised if he makes it through this TC.

    Scout and Twila are likely the first to go after Chris, but if they can organize a revolt against Ami soon they could do very well.

    I'm hoping Eliza goes soon. But she might be kept around since pretty much anyone here would probably win a tribal council vote over her.

    Ami- she might be too strong for her own good. It'll be interesting to see if there's a revolt (mutiny?) soon. It's hard to say. But I agree she'll probably stick her plan of voting out Chris this next week.
    And I sing sometimes like my life is at stake because you're only as loud as the noises you make.

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    hellooooooo sher's Avatar
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    great analysis and, as always, a wonderful read!

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    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    Basically, everyone knows that Ami is in control, and even more perplexing is that Scout and Twila both likely realize they are #6 and #5 on the chopping block, yet they have failed to utilize the male votes remaining to save themselves.
    I hate that every season stupid people just go meekly to their fate without working to change things when they still conceivably have the numbers to do so.


    I am just not sure, but there is a lot going on with Chris that we just donít know yet.
    I am putting all my hopes for this seaosn on the possibilty that Chris is working something on the quiet.
    I can't think of anything more tedious than seeing the women continuing to follow Ami's plans without seemingly making any other provisions to protect their individual positions once all the men have gone.

    Ami has probably been hoping that someone would jump up and make themselves an obvious target besides Eliza, who has been loyal to her, so now I expect her to move against Scout soon.
    Ami is front and centre in this game and although she's running the show at the moment making yourself so visible and so all-commanding can also be your downfall.
    She has stuck steadfastly to her plan and the women know that, until the men have gone, none of them is at risk under her leadership.
    In that regard she can be trusted, whereas Scout cannot.
    Of course, should Chris win immunity this week it'll be interesting to see who the women target.
    My guess at this point would be Scout, even though she is of little or no threat to win individual immunity, she has lost her position as trusted tribal elder.

    Excellent as always, Bill.
    A pleasure to read your take on things

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    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Chris also played an interesting card this week when he claimed Sarge told him to vote for his ouster. It was clearly a lie, as Chris himself admitted. Chad reacted surprised, but didnít seem to pursue it beyond that point, probably because he was too busy trying to think of a way to save himself. However, I have to wonder why Chris made that statement.
    Yeah, me too. I've been pondering this, trying to develop a rationale.

    Here's what I came up with:

    Suppose somebody is planning on taking Chris to F2. Part of the deal could include a provision that Chris burn bridges to his alliance. Chris' F2 partner thus seeks to weaken him even further, opening the possibility of winning one or both male votes.

    If this is true, it is a subtle and deep scheme, worthy of a master player.

    I recognize that this is far-fetched, and more likely Chris is just flailing.

    I think the players are too focused on F4. The way things stand, it seems likely that Ami, Leann and Julie are the F3.

    I think Scout, Eliza and Chris know this. As much as Scout and Eliza dislike each other, I believe they could put it aside temporarily.

    Twila I wonder about. I suspect Twila's game has been destroyed by her mistrust of everyone remaining. She'll make her voting decision on her own, without negotiation or strategic planning, so she most likely stays with the majority women's alliance until they say it's time for her to go.

    Too bad, because otherwise Ami's alliance could get overthrown. An overthrow has to come now, with seven left in the game, because the core alliance has three members.

    Twila's mindset makes overthrow a low probability scenario. Too bad.
    Last edited by Fossil; 11-22-2004 at 05:16 PM.

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    FORT Regular billyflynn's Avatar
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    Welll I hope there is some strategy going on in the background, but right now it simply looks like another strong player dominating the game and tedious is the word. As far as I am concerned Ami deserves the money, but this makes the second season in a row with poor game play, and how many more will viewers put up with? I can tell you this, all the teenage girls in my daughter's high school have turnned it off in favor of the O.C.

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    Can They Do It?? mrdobolina's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fluff
    I hate that every season stupid people just go meekly to their fate without working to change things when they still conceivably have the numbers to do so.
    Me too!!!!! That is why I loved Rob C. in the Amazon--when the other guy(I forgot his name!) said "Rob, you're our 4th in the F4, but that's as far as you go", and then Rob turned the tables and got him voted out, that was superb!! Then again, Rob went the very next week, didn't he?


    Quote Originally Posted by fluff
    I am putting all my hopes for this seaosn on the possibilty that Chris is working something on the quiet.
    I can't think of anything more tedious than seeing the women continuing to follow Ami's plans without seemingly making any other provisions to protect their individual positions once all the men have gone.
    Is it just me, or does Ami seem like the Romber of this season? All the women seem to be blindly following Ami, and it almost seems like--at this pretty late stage of the game--she will have a cake walk to the F2. No one questioned the Rob-father in All-stars, and now, no one seems to be questioning Ami either. I just see so many similarities.

    Thanks for the analysis, Bill! A good read, as always!
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