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Thread: Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 15) - Rory roars

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    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Survivor: Polynesian Pete Report (Day 15) - Rory roars

    Polynesian Pete Report - Episode Six
    Rory roars

    The Polynesian Pete Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the tribes. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?

    I found this show to be fascinating from a strategy standpoint. So many questions to answer. Is Scout in charge of the ladies, or is it Ami? Will Yasur actually win another challenge before the merge? Is Sarge actually attracted to Twila and will they be this seasonís romanceÖ okay, ewwwwww. Letís not go there.

    New Lopevi

    Sarge remains in charge, but there is a real disturbing trend going on here. First, Sarge gave away the knowledge that John is not one of the favored sons to Twila. That is a very bad choice to make when there are six in the tribe. If Julie and Twila approach John now, it opens the ability to negate the male advantage in this tribe, and force a tie at council. If they finesse it, they might even be able to make it a tie between John and one of Chad, Chris, or Lea, and that would be devastating to the men going to the merge, as the ladies seem likely to rejoin forces.

    Or at least it could have been devastating. The Yasur squad set their sites on self-destruction this week, but more on that below.

    To recap though, I honestly canít figure out what is going on in Sargeís mind. I may be overanalyzing yet again, but I just donít see that move helping him, and I wonder what Chad and Chris think about that deal.

    Chris and Chad continue to roll along. It is easy for them to be happy and content. They have been in the majority alliance in their tribe since day one. I wonder how they will respond if they face some game adversity. I think Chad lasts longer than Chris in that case, but these two can seal their ability to go far in the game if they get together with Sarge and figure out together what their plan is. If they want to reunite the men post merge, then Julie goes next. If they think they can rope Julie and Twila in to their circle (and Twila looks accommodating to that approach) then it is safe to dump John pre-merge.

    All of that assumes they will lose an immunity soon, and while they look dominant now, odds are they will lose, likely this week. My point being, the three need to decide together what to do now, before the vote, and not wait until they lose the immunity and decide that afternoon, when emotions run high, and mistakes are made.

    John seems to think he is free sailing to the merge, but he needs to do some work to shore up an alliance somehow, or he could make himself the early boot. Conversely, Julie has a strategy, but it is mostly based on the assumption that the men will keep her around for the nude bathing. It could work. You need only look to all-stars to see silly reasons working to keep someone around, or even let them win.

    Twila is sitting pretty safe, but she has to choose sides. If she turns her back on Julie, then she may not be able to work with the women post merge, but she herself would have great odds of making the merge. However, if she wants to win, then I think she should consider the Julie/John alliance option if it is available. That kind of group could go far post merge as it has openings to the Scout/Ami power bloc, as well as the remains of the Sarge/Chad/Chris group (assuming Twila wins in her gambit of forcing a tie).

    This tribe should be pretty intriguing to watch up to the merge.

    New Yasur

    Who is this new Ami person? Someone walked into camp overnight and replaced our good old under the radar Ami, with the new super man-hating, enforcing her dominance Ami that appeared this week. It was a pretty impressive tour de force.

    Now, I really think she over reacted to what Lisa said, and I wonder if it was just perhaps an excuse for her to take the lead in the tribe and pick off one of the Scoutís supporters, but I was shocked by the boot. I would have figured Lisa was the last person he was in danger here, but how quickly the tides turn.

    It has been this way all season though. Dolly suicides herself in one afternoon. Bubba offís himself in 10 seconds at one challenge. Now Lisa does herself in just with a slip of the tongue to the wrong person. Incredible.

    This season doesnít seem intense as we watch, but the need to remain flawless in your demeanor and comments is growing as we get into it. These people are looking for reasons to boot someone, and not really strategizing. It is making for a very chaotic game.

    As for the boot of Lisa itself, I just think Scout got outmaneuvered, and she needs to find a way to make peace with Ami, and the vote showed Rory, Ami, Eliza, and Leann all against her. This was a horrific week for Scout in terms of the game. I am not sure if she can scramble to save herself. It is critical for her survival for Yasur to win the next immunity. If she can delay her next visit to tribal council, then perhaps she can focus back on Eliza, who is no friend of Ami and Leann.

    Whatever the overreaction of the ladies in Yasur, you have to give Rory a lot of credit. He decided on a strategy, and stayed true to it. Before he knew it, he was not only safe, but playing a key role in leadership in the tribe. Now Ami and Lisa should have worked out their differences and stayed true to the plan, Rory was prepared and looking for those cracks in Yasur solidarity, and he took advantage of the situation. Well done!

    I Guess That Didnít Work

    Lisa made one minor mistake, and it cost her the game, not that she was going to win. I canít really fault her for it either. It was a small issue, and I still suspect that Ami had planned to make a move no matter what. Nevertheless, she failed to respond after Ami told her to her face that she would be willing to vote against her. That was a significant warning sign, and Lisa didnít act on the warning.

    A deserving boot.

    Next Week

    Twila is plotting with Julie to surprise the guysÖ or given this is an MB preview, it is probably much ado about nothing, and Twila will vote however her cuddle-buddy Sarge wants her to vote. See ya next week.

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
    -- Arrested Development, Season III

  2. #2
    Horror of Horrors emjoi's Avatar
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    I got the feeling Leanne, Eliza and Rory were all feeling vulnerable, and so were in "Anyone but Me" mode. So when Ami says a name, and it's not them, then great!

    If Scout and Lisa had instead put up Ami, maybe they would have gone that way instead. That was the kind of backflip that got Dolly booted. Not enough time? An inability to be openly confrontational? When your head is on the block and time is running out you have to be blunt and loud and aggressive.

  3. #3
    Endlessly ShrinkingViolet's Avatar
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    Who is this new Ami person? Someone walked into camp overnight and replaced our good old under the radar Ami, with the new super man-hating, enforcing her dominance Ami that appeared this week.
    Great analysis, Bill. Ever since Ami had that immunity necklace placed around her neck by John, she has exhibited the behavior you described. Maybe there was some kind of "island magic" within that necklace.

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    Ami has not really been under the radar the whole time at least not as much a Leann. Just look a the comments she makes at Tribal when Mia was booted. And she helped boot Mia at that.

    Look how she takes Eliza and others under her wing from time to time. She plays with thier emotions all the while making the person think she is a friend.

    She was even doing it to Rory. She is a cold calculated person. Just look at how she deals with the Lisa thing.

    There is nothing new about this Ami. She has a plan and I think it involves booting anyone who would not vote for her before jury starts being selected.
    From the women remaining there are only a couple who could be considered IC threats to her. She has kicked her game up to pre merge strategy. With the shakeup pretty much ensureing that a straight tribal advantage wont get the job done as not enough solidartiy is built. So if she can get rid of the threats in her own tribe and with the Dynamics on Lopevi at the moment a merge at 10 is playing right into the game she is playing. Especially if Lopevi throws and IC to dump John.

    Scout will go deep into the game because she is not an IC threat and she works around camp. But once the obvious IC threats are gone then the obvious Jury picks will go. Ami will orchestrate scouts removal just as much as Chris will Sarges but neither will see it as comming from them.

    Lopevie gets uneasy about going into the merge at 10 and throws it to dump John. Merge the following week sees Julie go as Ami's last real female threat. Then watch the feathers fly as alliances mean nothing in this particular game.
    This group is as cagy as they come. None of the real power players is saying a word on camera.

    Lopevi may even throw the challenge to save Rory.

    I wish we could see more of the scheming this season it must be really interesting.

    However I could be wrong and these people really are just wierd.

  5. #5
    I've been a bad, bad girl Siryn's Avatar
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    I am not so sure Scout is on the outs with Ami. I think that we may be reading too much into it. At the vote, it sounded like Scout was fully aware that Lisa was going home, but couldn't write her name down. Sort of like when Lex wouldn't write Brandon's name down due to loyalty on the day that Brandon got booted. It's dumb, but stupid things like that have been known to happen.

    I liked Ami but the last 2 episodes have shown us a side that is not so nice, and openly vocal about things that should probably be best schemed silently. I get the feeling that Ami is just getting lucky, and that she is not truly a skilled player. And Ami's luck is running out. If Yasur does a Maraamu and gets decimated before the merge, Ami is the first in line to get pagonged.

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    Ami is safe because scout is percieved by Lopevi as the leader. She has saved Rory and there are other threats besides her. Eliza and Julie to name a couple.

    She will sink into the background a bit and play nice when the merge hits but I bet she will get Twila back into the fold and she can pull more strings as things play out.

    This merge will have no major alliance beyond the 3 old Foggies and Scout Ami Leann. These two will manipulte the others.

    Merge at 10 which is just one boot away will prove very interesting.

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    Combat Missions Fan Wolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Lisa made one minor mistake, and it cost her the game, not that she was going to win. I canít really fault her for it either. It was a small issue, and I still suspect that Ami had planned to make a move no matter what.
    Yeah, I had a feeling Ami was just looking for an opportunity to boot Lisa out, and she found it. IMO, it was a pretty stupid move by Ami. She should've gotten rid of the weakest link, Eliza, and then wait to boot Lisa on the next round. But, what do I know. I"m not there playing the game.

    I really don't like Rory, but I have to hand it to him this week. He's lying and manipulating the emotions of the women so well. We'll see if he can keep that up.

    Excellent job, as always, Bill.

  8. #8
    Horror of Horrors emjoi's Avatar
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    Rory really didn't have a hand in Lisa's demise. I think he was just put in the Lil/Cowboy bin as "Someone we can get rid of later". He's just lucky that the Little Voices in Ami's head started calling for Lisa's blood.

    Luck rather than skill.

  9. #9
    Leo
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    Great analysis, Bill.

    I do disagree with you on one thing: I'm not so sure the ladies will rejoin forces post-merge. Eliza could very well be capable of turning on the ladies, the same goes for Julie. It's possible they could just take their chances with the guys.

  10. #10
    FORT Regular billyflynn's Avatar
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    I think the question is: is Ami a power player? Can she be so much out there, calling the shots, being the outfront leader, and pull it off? I think not. Scout will likely rally the troops behind her and get rid of this threat. I doubt we will see Ami on the Jury, or in front of it.

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