Great analysis Bill. I wonder, do you see the old Sabogas as a swing factor post merge? Right now there are four of them left. If 3 of them survive to make a ten member merge tribe (Jerri goes this week, merge the next) there would be 4 original Chapera's, 3 MM's, and 3 Saboga's. That leaves open the possibility that the Chapera's get Pagonged with their 4 - 6 disadvantage. If seems then that Rob and Ambers behavior is a significant threat to Tom and Alicia, as it could spark an alliance of the other two tribes.