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Thread: Survivor: Pelican Pete Report (Episode 6) - Is Everyone Going to Quit the Game?

  1. #31
    Smiling again... Zhora's Avatar
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    Hmmm...I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, Bill. I think Tom would let Rob and Amber get away with voting off Alicia before Rupert and Jenna without even getting suspicious if they played their cards right. Tom thinks Alicia is dumb and bossy. He talked about voting her off instead of Rob C. And of course it was at that very tribal council that Amber mentioned Rob M and Alicia are always at each other's throats. I don't think Alicia's done much in the way of endearing herself to Tom since then, and since he seems to like Rupert, I think he'd go along with voting her off. I think Rob and Tom will be tight for a while regardless of who Rob thinks should go.


    ETA: Um, oh, and I, uh really liked your Pelican Pete Report. I kind of forgot to mention that part.
    Last edited by Zhora; 03-09-2004 at 08:11 PM.

  2. #32
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    All that said, you might think that I feel Colby got the better of the conversation. I donít, and I have to agree with Shii Ann in that there is nothing at all for Colby to gain by saying all of that. He puts Shii Ann into an adversarial role, when there was no need to do so, and he may need her vote later. Colby probably assumes that he has Lex as a partner and Ethan in debt due to saving him. He is vastly underestimating Lex, and by telling Ethan he was intending to boot him at the time he was picked, he didnít do a lot to inspire loyalty on that front either. The final straw was alienating Kathy through the switch.
    I really don't know what possessed Colby to make the comments at TC or to get involved in the conversation with Shii Ann the following day.
    Colby is not sitting pretty within the tribe, I would have thought the fact that he knows he was nearly booted would be enough to clue him into that.

    Kathy needs to start utilizing her power, and if she wants to align with Lex, the time to say so is coming near. Obviously Lex will be willing to make that agreement too.
    I agree.
    If Kathy hasn't already established where she stands with Lex then she really needs to get some positive reinforcement from him.
    She does not want to find herself as a swing vote again.

    I continue to wonder though about the strategy of the strong players always trying to ensure they are last male left. IT DOES NOT WORK. More often than not, the ladies go along with the plan, knowing that eventually, the last strong player will lose an immunity, and can be booted off after they have served their purpose.
    As you say Bill, this does not work.
    This is an elementary mistake for a second time player to make imo.
    Can he really trust the females not to turn against him if they made the foinal four when it would be in all their interests to do so?


    Wonderful analysis as always Bill.
    I really look forward to reading the report.
    Excellent job
    Please someone at some point in some series form an alliance of the strong.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  3. #33
    Yogini Suxie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill_in_PDX
    I guess we will have to agree to disagree. .
    Sure, no prob. We'll see who is right: will the UTR players win again? Will the women stand by as the men destroy themselves? Does it matter that Shii Ann and Jerri are not good in challenges? I am fascinated by this season as an exrecise in the dynamic of male/female power.

    Namaste.

  4. #34
    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    I like the odds of you being right about UTR players going farther Suxie. My point is that I can never get over how the active players seem to almost always let it happen, and then of course they get really mad at them in the final vote, ala Neleh. So I think Shii Ann will outlast Colby for example, but that wasn't what I thought we were debating?

    @Zhora, I see your point there, you are probably reading that situation better than I did.
    Last edited by Bill; 03-10-2004 at 11:06 AM.
    "George Oscar Bluth II, aka GOB, featured magician in the best selling videotape, "Girls With Low Self Esteem" invites you to enter his world.
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  5. #35
    FORT Fan Fossil's Avatar
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    Thanks, Bill! Great job as usual.

    Jerri and Kathy:

    It was an excellent point on Kathy not keeping her alliance partners in the loop. This indicates Kathy does not want a leadership role.

    You might even make the case that Jerri's overtures to Lex were due, in part, to some level of discomfort with Kathy.

    Jerri's next play ought to be the following: propose to Lex (no, not that way, LOL) to do a "two-for:" Colby next boot, followed by either Shii Ann or Kathy. Lex-Ethan-Jerri emerge as the Mogo winners. Lex could negotiate Colby as the second to boot, arguing that he's useful in the challenges right now. Here's my take: either way would work, if done properly.

    That should take them to the merge.

    I'm looking for Alicia to go next from Chapera. Rob needs to sell Tom on the need to get rid of Alicia. I don't think that is a hard sell. Just give Tom the bottle before discussing strategy.

  6. #36
    FORT Fanatic getreal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StarryElf
    I think the stronger players are less willing to trust in each other, and instead end up with the safer partners in alliances.
    I agree. And that makes for much less drama.

    Like when you play Monopoly. The first time you play with some people, you're wheeling and dealing with others to get little monopolies to start setting up houses and hotels. But after one or two games, people stop doing deals with each other and risking them getting the power of the monopoly. Pretty soon you stop playing the game altogether.

    When a new batch of "virgin Survivors" are thrust together in a new environment, everybody is an equally unknown factor and personalities begin to emerge and group dynamics begin to show themselves after a day or two.

    But with All-Stars the players (and the viewers) have predetermined notions of what to expect from different characters. And like Hatch said, he gave people what they expected from him. Jerri is trying to be the opposite of what she was her first time out.

    It's all still an interesting experiment in human behavior and group dynamics.

  7. #37
    Yogini Suxie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill_in_PDX
    I like the odds of you being right about UTR players going farther Suxie. My point is that I can never get over how the active players seem to almost always let it happen, and then of course they get really mad at them in the final vote, ala Neleh. So I think Shii Ann will outlast Colby for example, but that wasn't what I thought we were debating?

    @Zhora, I see your point there, you are probably reading that situation better than I did.

    You weren't clear on what we were debating, if anything, due to my incoherent posts caused by: (1) a 12 hour work day followed by (2) wine.

    My point which I have made ad nauseum in many threads is that the women ALWAYS win by a UTR stratgey, because the men just cannot help seeing each other as the biggest threats and voting each other off. And I believe there is nothing wrong with the women standing by (probably laughing to themselves, as I would be) as the men talk about their great game play and plot against each other. My point is that one stratgey is not superior to the other. It must be recognized by all that, to date, women have won 4 out of 7 Survivors. And if I am not mistaken, each woman has been accused (not by you, Bill, or any FORT writer) of being an undeserving winner who was lucky, or who rode the coattails of a stronger player.

    Namaste.

  8. #38
    CEO
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyflynn
    Is the drive to be the alpha-male so strong that it makes strong player alliances too hard to maintain?
    In human society, Alpha males will always compete for primacy -- this is why they are called 'the' Alpha male. However, every so often, a collection of Alphas can come together and rule the world. If they can make it work, they are unstoppable. The hard part is making it work. The highest culmination of a group of Alpha males is a Special Forces ODA or a Metropolitan SWAT team.

  9. #39
    Yogini Suxie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CEO
    In human society, Alpha males will always compete for primacy -- this is why they are called 'the' Alpha male. However, every so often, a collection of Alphas can come together and rule the world. If they can make it work, they are unstoppable. The hard part is making it work. The highest culmination of a group of Alpha males is a Special Forces ODA or a Metropolitan SWAT team.

    The Survivor Swat Squad. I love it! The Commander: Steely Eyed Captain Colby. The Empathetic Hostage Negotiator: Adorable Ethan. The Undercover Weirdo: Lex. The Wild Uncontrollable Rookie: Rob. The Older Cops One Year from Retirement Whom you Know Will Get Wasted: Rupert and Tom.

    I could cast the females in roles too but it is my bedtime.

    I still believe that females will beat Alpha Males in this season. CEO, what do you think?

    Namaste.

  10. #40
    Yogini Suxie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyflynn
    As long as anyone has a vote at Tribal Council they are hardly worthless. As for UTR, many a strong player has sat at Loser Lodge watching the Darrah's and Sandra's move on to the finals. Its all a matter of timing: when do you make your move. Colby and Rob are only out front players. I think they are making foolish mistakes by playing their hands way too early. Note: Jerri HAS made a move by doing her best to link up with Lex. Lex apparently links up with Shii-Ann next week, a move she no doubt contributed to by laying the ground work in dozens of ways too subtle for MB to show us. So here we have two "weak" players linking with a physical player who himself knows the fine art of playing it cool. Those are BIG plays, and I think both of these ladies will go much further than Colby and Rob. Yes you can play under the radar too long, such as Amber in Australia, but watching smart players assessing situations and timing their strike is my favorite part of the game.
    YEAH Billy! I so agree with you. Super analysis.

    Namaste.

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