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Thread: Survivor: Pirate Report (Day 24) - Life Goes on for the Drake... er... Balboa Tribe

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    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Survivor: Pirate Report (Day 24) - Life Goes on for the Drake... er... Balboa Tribe

    Pirate Report (Day 24)
    Life Goes On for the Drake… er… Balboa Tribe

    The Pirate Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Balboa tribe the rest of the way to the final vote. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling? This is not meant to be a recap though, and for that, you will want to read fluff’s outstanding recaps this season.

    From here on out, the game has changed. Everyone you evict is a jury member, and this is where we find out who can really play the game, as opposed to those who think they can. The true masters think ahead to the final two, and what their standing would be, perceived and actual, in front of the jury. So you need to eliminate your threats, but do so in a way that gives you a chance of getting their vote. We saw a few violations of that rule already, and some people will regret their actions later.

    Since the merge, the pagonging of Morgan has seemed a certainty. However, we saw signs this week that the process of doing so is shortly going to take a back seat to the business of sorting out the whole “Rupert Issue”. What is the issue with Rupert? Well, unless something is done, he will win. Don’t get me wrong, I think he would be a more than deserving winner, and I love watching him in the game, but I assume at least three or four of the folks left in the game also want to win, and that means one thing… as soon as Rupert loses immunity, he is likely to go.

    The Rupert Alliance

    Is this really an alliance still? Seriously.

    From a game play perspective, I was very happy to see Christa actually talk about strategy, and note that her shoulder definition admirer, Rupert, has to go. She said it in such a matter of fact way that I feel she has probably been discussing the timing of this with Sandra for the last several episodes. On the other hand, Christa needs to tread carefully. She is plotting against her biggest ally in the game (and rightly so if she is playing to win) but they will need crossover help to pull off the coup. I don’t think Sandra is as loyal to Christa, as she is to her own advancement in the game. If Christa cuts a deal, she needs to ensure she is on top of the situation. Apparently she and Ryan had some kind of falling out, for he actually called her a “bitch” at the vote. So she is already down one vote in the finals, and based on her rumored attitudes, I think she has no chance to get there.

    Sandra. I like the way she thinks. On the one hand, openly practicing food gathering without the guys is a little blatant, but the idea is sound. I think Sandra has been waiting to make her move for a while now. She also knows Rupert has to go for her to have a shot at winning, and a good shot I think she has. Now, thinking of the jury and the final two, the question is, how does she pull it off? Surprisingly easily in my opinion. If she knows (or learns) that Burton is going to make a move against Rupert, in conjunction with Jon, she simply brings Christa along to make that happen, yet allow Burton and Jon to take the lead.

    Rupert is liable to strangle anyone who votes against him right there at tribal council, but he will eventually have to vote for someone from the jury box. Given his mantra of tribal loyalty, he would not vote anyone who orchestrated his betrayal (thus giving Sandra an advantage over Burton and Jon), or a former Morgan (giving similar advantage over Lil, Darrah, and Tijuana). It would be a smart play. But that is not all, for after Rupert is dealt with, Sandra could then pursue her “Girl Power” alliance, and then rapidly boot Jon and Burton. Both of them are schemers, and just as likely to respect her for outwitting them, as to hold it against her. Unless Darrah or Tijuana actually wake up and play, the road is open to the finals. My gut feel is that this is exactly how it will play out.

    Rupert thinks everything is okay, and that he is in control of the game. The pride goes before the fall. Every remaining player in the game has one thing in common… they want Rupert gone. I am sure they all love and respect him, but that has nothing to do with winning. So while his days are numbered, and he is my hot seat pick for this week, I did enjoy watching him in action last episode. First, he did his best to comfort Lil, and keep her in line. He complimented Christa, though it was a little creepy the way he was inspecting her shoulder, and perhaps most surprisingly, he let Burton and Ryan go fishing unsupervised! Yes, I was shocked too. In the end, if Rupert does go soon, and I don’t underestimate his ability to scramble, I think that his competitive spirit and skills were far better than his ability to play the political game. I think that veiled intimidation and threats of starving the tribe might work for a while, but as they get closer to the end, they know they can eat first, and then dump you at their convenience.

    The Outcasts and a Misfit

    Burton is also playing quite well given his second chance. I actually admire what he is doing. He came back, swallowed his pride, and realized that he was booted because it is a game, and he deserved it (perhaps some of this could rub off on Lil? Nah…). What’s more though, he has a strategy, and it is a good one. He wants to turn the tables on the Rupert alliance, but bringing Lil, D and T along, and forcing a 4-3 ouster of Rupert. He will soon learn that Sandra and Christa are more than happy to join that effort.

    So the question remains, if everyone wants Rupert gone, why didn’t they prevent him taking immunity in the last show? It was a challenge where he had no control over it, and with Rupert, you might not get another chance like that. I pondered that question for quite a while, and the conclusion I come too is that they still wanted Ryan to go, before they get Rupert. Why? Because if Burton forms his coup alliance, it would be Jon, Burton, and Lil working with Ryan, Darrah, and Tijuana. He probably assumed that those three are inseparable, and his team would include an unstable scoutmaster and a known slimeball. He would be getting the short end of that deal. With Ryan gone, he may be assuming that he can bring in Darrah and Tijuana to his side directly, and then he only needs Lil or Jon to dominate the game. If that is the case, then I give Burton a lot of credit for creative thinking.

    As for Lil, I say again that I cannot fault her decision to align with the Drakes, but that I think it was way too much to give, for a sixth place finish. Rupert himself told her directly that she would be the last Morgan to go, and that if she won immunities from there, then “he” would eliminate a Drake instead. No kidding Rupert? Who else were you going to eliminate there? Yet Lil sits there, happy to be loved, just for the opportunity to be told directly that she WILL NOT win. Please tell me Lil that you didn’t decide to completely screw over your old tribe, and this game, yet you aren’t even going to try to win. I hope she has more up her sleeve than this.

    Amazingly enough, Jon has extracted himself from near certain departure to being in yet another strong position. He can stay with Burton, and play out his hand from that angle, or he could sell all of them out to Rupert. I suspect he will go with Burton, just simply as payback for that night at tribal council where he voted for Rupert and nearly got assaulted back at camp for it. Either way, I expect Jon to last for a good bit longer. I still think he has no chance at a win, but he could make the final four.

    The Slumber Party Alliance

    Get off your butts!

    No, I don’t mean from a work standpoint, as I suspect this storyline of Drake-hardworkers and Morgan-slackers, except for precious innocent Lil, is more than a little contrived. I mean get off your butts and play the damn game. You two have nearly starved to death so far on this show, and yet you are doing nothing to prevent the departures of your tribe. DO SOMETHING!!!!!

    Okay, the truth is, they likely are doing something. MB is notorious for hiding much of the scheming, and I suspect these two will latch on to Sandra’s pending moves. That is a good start, and the key will be, how to play it from there. I still say that only one of the two has a chance to go far, and it is likely they will have to win some immunities to do it.

    I Guess That Didn’t Work

    Ryan, you were even respected by Rupert, and that is not a bad distinction to have.

    However, your scheming came a little too late, and while I think you were on the right track with it, most people quickly came to the conclusion that they didn’t actually need you to carry out the plan. Having you around simply complicated matters.

    Ryan’s fate was sealed when Lil switched sides. He joins the long list of decent players who simply were pagonged out of the game. I look forward to seeing him on the reunion show so we can find out what was going on between him and Darrah, and him and Christa (seems they hate each other).

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
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    FORT Fogey
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    Of course I completely agree because these Pirate Reports are always written very well, but this part is worth quoting:

    Ryan’s fate was sealed when Lil switched sides. He joins the long list of decent players who simply were pagonged out of the game. I look forward to seeing him on the reunion show so we can find out what was going on between him and Darrah, and him and Christa (seems they hate each other).
    And Jeff had better not ignore him like he did with Dave. I wanted to hear about the whole Dave/Rob thing and the Dave/Heidi thing. But yeah. I really hope that we hear about him and Darrah, although it's pretty clear how it is: he has a crush on her, and she has a bf of 2 years and pretty much doesn't care about him at all. I'd like to hear more about the Ryan/Christa thing too.

    He definitely didn't deserve to go when he did. Stupid Lill.

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    RESIDENT JEDI MASTER Stargazer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill_in_PDX
    So the question remains, if everyone wants Rupert gone, why didn’t they prevent him taking immunity in the last show?
    Well done Bill. I thought all your points were right on except perhaps the reasoning for everyone looking the other way as Rupert swept the immunity challenge. Although I think that Burton is a great player, I have trouble seeing him orchestrate a last minute alliance against Ryan. I believe that they all went into the immunity challenge wanting Rupert out, until they realized that they would have to play their hand out in the open.

    My own theory is that no one wants to reveal any disloyalty to Rupert until the TC where his torch gets snuffed. Basically, none of them had the chutzpah to do it (except Sandra who appeared to be quite nervous at the prospect). Now, I don't think that they actually fear that he will cause them physical harm should he should suspect dissention in the ranks. I think that they would just prefer not to have him bellowing in camp until its time for the vote.
    I think they all just chickened out and decided to wait for a more covert opportunity to take out their "King".

    I could be wrong though. Perhaps Burton did indeed decide to get rid of some dead wood first. MB has a habit of revealing secret strategies the next week. As I said, I think that the rest of your analysis is dead on and I suspect that Rupert will be fishing with Ryan at Loser Lodge if he loses immunity this coming week.
    "Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter."- Yoda

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    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    I too thought Darrah and Tijuana were hitching onto Sandra after watching her do the "Girls Gone Hunting" bit. However Ryan said in his CBS chat that he tried to convinve Burton, Jon, Tijuana and Darrah to take out Rupert, Christa, and Sandra.

    I think that Ryan either made a mistake and talked about an alliance that was to later form (and that he could have noticed from the jury), one that as you said in this Report, concerned Burton's coup taking in Darrah and Tijuana. Or maybe he made no mistake at all and this had already happened in this last episode (but we didn't see it.) Either way these girls were so dismissive of Ryan during this last episode, that they went with someone.

    Another possibility is that Ryan simply made a game-wide mistake and incorrectly went after people he thought were in alliances but really weren't. However I think that is highly unlikely as he seems to be a bright guy and has had plenty of chance of letting the strategy of the game sink in during both his stay on the island and at the jury.

    I have a feeling Darrah and Tijuana will be fought over between the Sandra/Christa alliance and Burton's alliance in the next few episodes.

    In any case, great job on the Report, Bill
    Last edited by Zaius; 11-15-2003 at 06:52 PM.
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    Premium Member sheela's Avatar
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    Excellent analysis, Bill.

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    searching for madness PrincessRight's Avatar
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    Bill, your reports have got to be the FoRT's Survivor Bible. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and allowing us to pick your brain!

    Quote Originally Posted by Lil_Cutie
    I really hope that we hear about him and Darrah, although it's pretty clear how it is: he has a crush on her, and she has a bf of 2 years and pretty much doesn't care about him at all.
    Don't worry your little head, Lil_Cutie, I have a feeling that this Darrah/Ryno unlikely coupling might just be a smoke screen. Something about Darrah's Ryno boot message and Ryno's public admission of his smitten heart don't make sense to me. It's hard to explain... just call it female intuition!
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    FORT Fogey TheFlying's Avatar
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    Huh? Darrah has a boyfriend. There's nothing going on between her and Ryan O.

    He definitely didn't deserve to go when he did. Stupid Lill.
    Ah, this I can absolutely not agree with. Ryan's time to go was when his torch was snuffed. If his torch was snuffed, and he had the votes, he deserved to go.

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    I think many of you are ignoring one fact.

    An alliance with Burton Jon T&D and even Lill that only breaks up Ruperts camp serves only one purpose Burtons. With Ruperts alliance broken (with any of the three gone) it leaves outcast burton in charge.

    Lil may very well believe Burtons "wont vote you out" which may even be true but who else is served by having Burton be the new Island king.

    The only way T&D make it past the exit of Rupert in a burton alliance is by having a sub alliance with Christa and Sandra to be sure the men go next.

    And where does that leave Jon. Even though I think he is banking on someone taking him to the final 2 because they believe they cant lose, can he really trust Burton to do this as Lil would be a better choice for him.

    T,D and Jon dont get much out of this alliance and if they are stupid enough to go along with it in full they deserve what they get.

    My gut feeling is Jon is going to go whereever the wind blows. His earlier attempt to boot Rupert was based entirely on false info in my opinion. He thought Trish had Sandra in her pocket and had no reason to think it would collapse. Look to Jon to be the suprise swing vote again.

    Rupert losing immunity may not be able to save himself but dont tell me Burton is playing it smart. His real chance came last week when Ryno offered alliance. I think this fell apart because Burton couldnt pull it together. Sandra on the other hand may very well pull the women together even distancing herself from Christa. The female alliance has more merit because it doesnt expose itself and just takes the biggest male threat who doesnt win immunity. I think this is how the vote will go down this week. 4 if not 5 females all on the same side. The male votes will be incidental.

    For Burton or Rupert its win immunity save your butt. Jon will try very hard to vote with the majority no matter who it is. He doesnt want to be out on an island by himself again (no pun intended)

    I think the girls see burton as the bigger threat than Rupert. He has beaten Rupert in individual IC's of strength so far. He is an outcast so you dont know where his alliances lie. Jon voted him out before.

    Rupert may very well go home this week but it wont be because of anything Burton has pulled together.

    Now if the others go along with him and we see a 5-3 beating of Ruperts alliance I think the others D&T and epecially Jon deserve what they get; which will be a big fat boot very soon because none of them have a place in Burtons F2.

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    An innocent bystander nlmcp's Avatar
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    I keep thinking it would suit more people to have Burton gone then Rupert this week. Burton is just as much of a threat, maybe more then Rupert in IC's (I'm sure he is a heck of alot faster in foot race and may be a little more flexable in getting in and out of small spaces for example) I do think there is a female alliance building out there and I think they should go after Burton first then Rupert.
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  10. #10
    Leo
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    Great analysis, Bill. Just one minor quibble:

    What is the issue with Rupert? Well, unless something is done, he will win.
    I don't agree totally. If they rest of the tribe does bupkis, Rupert will walk into the final two. I am not sure, though, that he could win a final two vote.

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