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Thread: If Michael hadn't fallen in the fire...

  1. #1
    Sexy evil genius Paulie's Avatar
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    If Michael hadn't fallen in the fire...

    One day, Fluff asked me the following question: "If Michael hadn't fallen in the fire, do you think a Kucha would have won S2?"

    Here's my response:

    In order to answer this question, we need to evaluate the next IC, the one that never took place. If Kucha won that Challenge, they'd enter the merge up 6-4, and Ogakor as we knew it post-merge would probably be without Jerri. In that situation, you would have had some interesting fireworks. On the one hand, Michael, Rodger, and Elisabeth were a known alliance, as were Jeff and Alicia. On the other side, you had Tina, Colby, and Keith. Amber and Nick are wild cards. I don't see Jeff & Alicia (and possibly Nick) breaking off from the core Kucha group immediately post-merge. They wouldn't have the numbers. So obviously Colby/Tina/Keith would play that endurance challenge differently. I see Colby outlasting everyone and Keith getting the first boot. Tina and Colby would then be trying hard to assess weak points in the Kucha Alliance and might notice the rift between Michael and Jeff ("He's an idiot!"). Jeff and Alicia would probably welcome the opportunity to seize the upper hand over Michael and Company, and they'd probably recruit Nick to their cause. Still wouldn't be the right time to act, though. If they could eliminate one more Ogakor, they'd be golden. Tina would NOT be targeted because both Colby and Amber are younger and are perceived as greater Immunity threats. Colby would need to win Immunity or be booted. Jeff/Alicia would never be able to make a compelling case to the others to keep him around. Unfortunately for him, the next Challenge is the ridiculous Dots challenge. I don't know who wins, but odds are it isn't Colby. So he's gone. Now we're in an interesting situation. Jeff and Alicia are ready to make their move, but Tina must depend on Amber to work with them. She'd probably go along because she has no other plan, and at least she trusts Tina. If we assume that Nick would once again win the balance IC, then the new alliance could easily take out an unsuspecting Michael. At this point, the game plays out predictably down to the Final Four. We have no reason to suspect that Rodger, Elisabeth, or Amber would come together in a strategic way so let's say they all depart in that order. Now it gets interesting. The next IC is the Memory Game. I think Tina did pretty well in that game so I'd expect her and Jeff (who I think would have been revealed as a top player, had he stayed) would compete for Immunity. Tina really is a good player, I think, so I'm going to predict that she rises up and wins the IC, sending Nick to the showers. Last Challenge: Fallen Comrades. Tina's only chance, I think, is to win the thing, but I don't think she does. Jeff or Alicia takes the other to the end, and - yes - a Kucha wins the game. If Tina wins Fallen Comrades, though, SHE wins heads-up against either Jeff or Alicia.

    NOW what if they enter the merge 5-5 (Kucha loses the last pre-merge IC)? The question is...what does the Kucha tribe look like at the merge? I think Jeff is gone. Everybody's aware that Kimmi shared his vulnerable position with Ogakor, and Michael's strategic enough to know that they're in trouble if that's exploited. He and his alliance target Jeff. Jeff, Alicia, and maybe even Nick go after Michael. Previous votes carry the day, and Jeff is gone. Now the endurance IC takes on a different flavor. Once again, Keith is known to be vulnerable. Ogakor, on the other hand, doesn't know WHO to throw their votes to. A logical speculation, though, would be the oldest member, Rodger. No reason for Colby to try to lure anyone into the water, though. He and Michael engage in a test of wills, and it doesn't really matter which one wins, even though I'm assuming one will. Keith's previous votes will doom him as Ogakor picks incorrectly. In THIS situation, without Jeff at the helm, I think the Alicia and Nick alliance will struggle. They will undoubtedly be approached by Tina/Colby again, but the numbers just aren't there. Colby loses Dots and gets booted. I really don't think Alicia and Nick would feel safe enough going after the Michael-led alliance in this situation because they won't have the numbers when it's done. So Amber goes next and then Tina. Alicia and Nick then try to sway Michael away from Rodger and Elisabeth, citing the obvious closeness of the two. Michael would really have to consider this, and I don't know what he'd say. Either way, he's the swing vote and gains F3 by eliminating the other member of the weaker alliance. I think he wins Fallen Comrades and takes the whole thing. Kucha wins again.

    So....long story short, yes, I think Kucha wins if Michael doesn't fall in the fire.
    When you're ten years old and a car drives by and splashes a puddle of water all over you, it's hard to decide if you should go to school like that or try to go home and change and probably be late. So while he was trying to decide, I drove by and splashed him again. - Jack Handey

    Read Paulie's Precaps for Survivor:Vanuatu: 1-2-3-4-5

  2. #2
    Do the Kirby! Healblade's Avatar
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    Impressive analysis.

    I'll have to read this again later, and see if I really agree, though.

    (Raises his glass) Here's to some goood discussion later!

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