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Thread: Success in Survivor - A Mathematical Model

  1. #21
    Yoffy lifts a finger... fluff's Avatar
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    Very interesting analysis tmcrae.

    I'm not surprised Kim J scored well according to your points system.
    The very fact that she basically voted whichever way the guys told her to and they were in control, bumped up her score.
    Her two IC wins were perfectly timed too.

    I'm not surprised that Brian ranked number one either. He was allowed to quietly control the tribe and the voting because his competitors i.e. Ted, Helen and Jan didn't mount any defence to his and Clay's alliance.
    "That's Numberwang!"

  2. #22
    FORT Fogey livin4reality's Avatar
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    Ok so Jenna did slightly better than Matthew. Still don't like her....

  3. #23
    Survivor Withdrawal Liant's Avatar
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    good job tmcrae

    as with any quantitative analysis, there are always some flaws. For example, Richard throwing the final immunity challenge hurts his ranking in your analysis, but was a great strategic move to move him into the final 2.

    Also, once the final 2 survivors are in place, there is nothing quantitative that can be measured as to how they will be placed. It's totally in the hands of the jury & therefore a number of differing events go in to how the jury selects the winner.

    However, in terms of a quantitative analysis based on previous shows, this looks very good.
    Last edited by Liant; 10-11-2003 at 08:27 PM.

  4. #24
    JR.
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    You need to figure in a way to deduct points for stupidity. **I'm looking at you Colby**

  5. #25
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    Excellent job Tmcrae. Since you nailed that pretty good, who's gonna win the World Series?? See ya.

  6. #26
    FORT Fogey
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    Quote Originally Posted by JR.
    You need to figure in a way to deduct points for stupidity. **I'm looking at you Colby**
    lol, on a note about Colby, although i am not a fan of his, from what i get from post interviews that he said he had an alliance with Tina from the week that they would take eachother to the final 2, so you can't blame him for being honest.

    If you want to talk about stupid people on S2, Amber, Liz and Rodger all could have fiormed an alliance togetehr and booted out Tina, Keith and Colby no problem. It should have been obvious to Amber that she was basically dead weight once jerry went out so it would have been smart startegically to allign herself with other people.

  7. #27
    FORT Fogey
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    There was a thread about this awhile back, during last season, I think it was called "Missed Opportunities" and the writer mentioned that Liz should have tried to align herself with Amber. Here's the thing though, maybe she did try and it wasn't shown and Amber refused because she was very positive that she was in a tight alliance with Colby.

  8. #28
    FORT scientist astrogirl_2100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tmcrae
    Having said that, the models look very interesting and, as you put it, very complicated! Certainly well beyond anything I would try to tackle!
    Yeah, me too, and I have a ph.d. in astrophysics

  9. #29
    Leo
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    What I find interesting about the statistics is this: from S1 to S4, the points champ always ended up first. Then, with S5 and S6, the points champ also won the whole thing. Coincidence, or is there a real change in the way juries look at the vote?

  10. #30
    FORT Fan Trainwreck's Avatar
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    The infamous purple rock

    Quote Originally Posted by brusch
    Interesting results, tmcrae. Your #5 criteria Casting a “Correct” Tribal Council Vote has always seemed to be one of the most important factors for staying in the game. A player who can stay on the right side of a majority and sense when to switch will usually go far. The results for Marquesas shows the uncertainty of the purple rock and then my favorite of that season Kathy going next.
    Yes, I'd also like to point to the purple rock as the cause of the anomaly in the Marquesas season. This ill-conceived tie-breaker also showed up in a funny FORT list of Biggest Stupidities. I felt that it really disrupted the flow of the game.

    Have there been any tie-breakers since? If so, how were they conducted? Do we still risk the curse of the purple rock?
    Bring it!

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