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Thread: Survivor: Pirate Report (Day 6) - Morgan in Disarray

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    Starbucks is your friend Bill's Avatar
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    Survivor: Pirate Report (Day 6) - Morgan in Disarray

    Pirate Report (Day 6)
    Morgan in Disarray

    The Pirate Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Drake and Morgan tribes during their stay in Panama. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling? This is not meant to be a recap though, and for that you will want to read fluff’s outstanding recaps this season.

    The second three days in Panama is where the reality of the situation sinks in. It is just a game, but the rumbling in your stomach, and too many nights sleeping only an hour while the bugs feast on you, tells you it really is survival as well. Those factors combine to bring out the worst in everyone, and this week is no exception.

    Drake

    Another week, another two victories for this tribe. It seems too easy for them… and it is. Lillian was right, the Morgan’s were very close to winning both immunity challenges. Close isn’t good enough though, so the Drakes cruise along, getting a little cocky on the way. Karma has a way of getting you back eventually.

    I remain convinced that Drake is due to blow up as soon as they lose immunity. All the pieces for it are in place. Heck, Rupert is already losing it. He swings from trees to knock them down, kisses fish after he has killed them, and practically needs Prozac when the fishing spear breaks. I love Rupert, don’t get me wrong, but he needs to tone it down a bit, especially if Jon continues to lie low. Further, Jon planted the seed in Sandra’s mind to take the tarp. Inadvertently, he was valuable this week.

    Sandra was front and center again. She volunteered to go to Morgan and take the single item. I think that was a major error. Michelle had it right, there is no way you want to be the one to go over there and crush people who will be jury votes, or potential allies down the road. On the other hand, Sandra refused to be drawn into an argument while she was there, and she took a very valuable, probably the ONLY valuable, camp item there. By the time this done, many folks will make that same pirate trip, so perhaps in the long run this one event doesn’t matter. One thing is certain, the tarp will further enhance the Drake advantage.

    Shawn and Burton were pretty quiet this week, aside from the whole missing spear incident. Shawn, or was it Burton? (they look so much alike lately) didn’t intentionally break the spear, and they all knew it was loose to begin with. He handled it very well when Blackbeard went nuts. Overall, they had a better week.

    I also notice that Michelle hangs out a lot with these two. It would appear that Burton, Shawn, and Michelle would be a voting bloc, and one likely to pull in Christa too. That puts them in good standing for the eventual first tribal council. Of course, much will depend on who screws up to send them there. Christa is playing a good game, I have to admit, and she is setup to join with any dominating group that forms. As a swing vote, she has power. The question is, will she use it aggressively? I think she will.

    Trish was invisible this week, normally that would bode well, but past survivors have shown a trend where someone gets a lot of camera time, then disappears the next week, and then is gone the third week. I don’t see why Trish would be in danger, and she probably is not. In fact, she may well go a long ways into the game, but it will be important for her to read the trends and identify the majority group, just as Christa is doing. If she plays it right, she can sail through to the merge. If she miscalculates, she will go quickly.

    Morgan

    Morgan is in free fall, and all of Andrew’s motivational talks cannot change that. The elements are working against them too, as cold nights, lack of good food, and general malaise conspire against them. They need a reward challenge win, as well as an immunity win. With a reward win they can see the Drake camp, and pick up needed supplies. Just taking the fishing spear alone might swing the entire game and I am only half joking about that.

    Andrew continues unchallenged as the leader, though I noted Tijuana’s wry smile at tribal council when Jeff suggested that some leaders get sacrificed in these parts. He is doing okay really as the ceremonial boss, well except that he makes horrible decisions as to who will do what in a challenge. He knows Ryan S. is not capable of anything physical, yet he has him kickoff the reward challenge, ensuring certain defeat.

    You see, in my opinion, half the challenge, of the challenge, is overcoming the pressure of team competition with so much riding on the line. If you blow it early, the other team can relax, which leads to better performance in their weakened condition, meanwhile you are even more desperate. Next, in the immunity challenge, Morgan had a huge lead going into the beach, yet they could not negotiate unraveling the bamboo tube, and lost. Combine that with the whole “lets all get naked” strategy in week one, and you have a guy who talks a good game, but leads nothing. No one wants to challenge him though, so next week will be more of the same.

    Congratulations to Osten. I have not seen that level of surrender since Shawna gave up on the last survivor. Yet, he lives on, mainly because Andrew and Tijuana feel they cannot win without him. Now, I don’t think his whines are exaggerated, but it was he himself who sold his own clothes back in the village. Yes folks, even in the tropics it gets cold at night. I notice that no one offers to share clothes with him. I find that kind of telling. He survived this week, and may well later on because Lil is around to boot, but I am having doubts he can go far in this game.

    Speaking of Lil, her only close ally just took the walk of shame, and she laid out her allegiances clearly at tribal council. This may be too much to overcome. She is exposed with no allies in a tribe that must hang on to all the muscle it has left. Sorry Lil, but as of now, your days are numbered. She should probably sit next to Osten day and night, talking about warm blankets, thick steaks, and booze. He will flip, and that could save her another week, and with the way this game is going, that gets her to the merge, where she can go under the radar. I don’t think she will make it though, and will soon rejoin her friend Skinny Ryan at Loser Lodge.

    Tijuana played a key role in keeping Osten around. She wasn’t being kind about it either. She wants Osten there because she correctly assumes he is a vote she can control. I think she is sitting in a strong place in the tribe. Andrew counts her as an ally, and she can keep him in place as the leader, while she cruises along, completely safe.

    Ryan O. is competing well, so he too is safe. There is no way he is going anywhere while Morgan is in loser mode. However, Nicole seemed safe two weeks ago, and we saw how quickly that changed. He doesn’t strike me as a particularly adept player of the game though, and eventually things will settle out. At that point he becomes the classic strong physical player with no ties. Everyone will quickly agree to boot him if he makes it to the merge. Ryan, it is time to start thinking about the game.

    Darrah. Well, she is still deep undercover. She came up long enough this week to utter a bleeped out word, and then quickly disappeared again. I suppose that is still good for her future, or perhaps she is even more boring than we thought possible.

    I Guess That Didn’t Work

    Ryan S. had no chance this week after the reward challenge. Already on the hot seat after being called out in the last tribal council for not being a contributor, he truly sank his chances when it took him twice as long to complete his leg as the Drakes did.

    Osten whining or not, Skinny Ryan was the target all along, and I suspect that issue was well settled before the boat ride to meet Jeff. Even if Osten had ran off on his own, this tribe might still have asked Jeff to let them vote him off anyway, as that is how bad he was in the challenges. We were just subjected to classic Burnett editing, there was no chance of another outcome if you think about it.

    Your comments are welcome. Email bill@fansofrealitytv.com
    Last edited by Bill; 09-29-2003 at 09:40 AM.
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    Allez les Bleus! Zaius's Avatar
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    Great stuff, Bill !

    Morgan is in free fall, and all of Andrew’s motivational talks cannot change that.
    It would appear that Burton, Shawn, and Michelle would be a voting bloc, and one likely to pull in Christa too.
    Osten whining or not, Skinny Ryan was the target all along, and I suspect that issue was well settled before the boat ride to meet Jeff.
    I agree!

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    Leo
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    Great analysis. I don't agree with it all (particularly Jon's status), but I'm probably the one who's gonna be wrong. You hit the nail right on the head with "leader" Andrew.

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    Why Not Us? greenie's Avatar
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    Great analysis, Bill! It'll be interesting to see if Morgan can get out of this free fall with two of its members gone.
    Who shot who in the what now?

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    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    Great job, Bill. Where are Darrah and Trish? And what does that mean for them? We'll have to see...

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    Soccer Kicks Balls cali's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill
    Combine that with the whole “lets all get naked” strategy in week one, and you have a guy who talks a good game, but leads nothing. No one wants to challenge him though, so next week will be more of the same.
    I agree with everything you said. It's spooky.
    The above quote especially, had me smiling and nodding along
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    Another week, another two victories for this tribe. It seems too easy for them… and it is. Lillian was right, the Morgan’s were very close to winning both immunity challenges. Close isn’t good enough though, so the Drakes cruise along, getting a little cocky on the way. Karma has a way of getting you back eventually.

    If you blow it early, the other team can relax, which leads to better performance in their weakened condition, meanwhile you are even more desperate. Next, in the immunity challenge, Morgan had a huge lead going into the beach, yet they could not negotiate unraveling the bamboo tube, and lost.

    --------------------------------------------------

    Your forewarnings of how tenuous Drake's dominance of the game is so far is right on the mark. They have had to come from behind in at least 2 important challenges. Morgan had a huge lead in the IC, which they blew because they couldn't get the bamboo tube untied. Drake won that one because their tube practically fell apart on them. I haven't seen anybody comment on that, but I recall that it practically just fell open as they started to untie it. It was apparently poorly tied to begin with. If anybody taped it, can you watch that segment again? I'd be interested to know if I saw that correctly. At this point, tho, Morgan's morale is so decimated, it would be quite a feat for them to come back. But stranger things have happened!

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    Good analysis Bill, I do believe that Drake will implode, more often than not, when something seems too easy, it usually is'nt. I do believe that Tijuana weilds more power than we are being shown, and along with Andrew, are the only reason that Osten is still there. At this point, does anybody other than Lil know where the water source is??

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    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
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    Great job once again . I agree with you and the other posters that despite how disparate the tribes appear, any bump in the road for Drake could send them into disarray. Morgan still has a lot of work to do but we've all seen stranger things on Survivor than these two tribes evening out.
    Log off. That cookie sh*t makes me nervous. --Tony Soprano

    So I said to him, "Look, buddy, your car was upside down when we got here. And as for your Grandma, she shouldn't have mouthed off like that!" --Homer Simpson

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    Wish I Had A FF Right Now Jughead Jones's Avatar
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    Good job!

    As far as the bumps in the Drake alliance...it could happen...they're already showing tension between Sandra and Jon in the next episode.

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