+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 6 123456 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 51

Thread: Survivor Speculation

  1. #1
    FORT Fogey TheFlying's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Posts
    926

    Predictions? Placements? *IN DEPTH DISCUSSION*please

    There really was no topic where everyone could discuss their predictions of what may happen. I think it's a ton of fun to discuss stuff like what could happen if say Drake loses the IC challenge next week, or alliances that may form, or where the contestants may place in the overall.

    This topic is to have in depth discussions on anything of the above. Don't be afraid of posting something not related to what the people above are talking about.

    No spoilers please. Please give reasons as to what you think, too.

    To get things rolling, I'm kind of curious who Drakes first boot could be, or how some Drake members might do over the long term. I do think they will be headed to Tribal Council soon, but right now it may be hard to tell. Still, let's take a look?:

    Burton: I think he's a potential candidate for the first Drake boot, but not quite in the most danger here. Going by the previews next week, since it seems Shawn is the one that angers Rupert or supposedly loses the "crucial item" that we think is (was?) a spear (afterall that would make sense if it was a spear, since it angers Rupert so much). So if Shawn is the one causing any conflict here, it automatically makes him more of a target than his Ambiguously Gay Partner. But of course, if you put yourself into leadership like Shawn AND Burton did, you're automatically a target.

    Christa: I think she's safe for a bit. I don't think she is going to be one to, sadly, pull a Nicole and put herself from safety into huge danger. I think, unfortunately, she is going to be one that slowly burns out. This doesn't neccesarily mean she's in it to the end, but it means more of her boot will come more from building of weeks worth of stuff, not just one blowout.

    Jon: I have to give this guy props. You have balls to annoy the hell out of two very vocal tribemates (Rupert, Sandra) and get drunk on the FIRST NIGHT. Hopefully he goes soon, and is an obvious choice for first boot. You just can't put yourself out there so much so soon.

    Michelle: Hmm. I personally would be annoyed if anyone said Michelle is in an alliance with Shawn/Burton over that little coconut milk thing. That's something very small. However, IF she really does allign herself with Shawn/Burton, unless it's late enough so that she can make the merge and have a chance to ally with new people, it would doom her. Joining Shawn/Burton is on the wrong end of the alliance, you don't want to be with them. I don't think we'll find out where she is until the episode where Drake loses an IC (I really am going to be surprised if Drake NEVER loses an IC). However, if she holds off on Shawn/Burton and can allign herself with a better group, she will go far. No matter where she goes, she's not going to be the first Drake boot.

    Rupert: I think he is a possible candidate for Drake's first boot! He has put himself out there very much, and as much fun as it was to piss off Shawn and Burton, it's too early in the game to be doing that when you don't have any alliance. I also think it's partially because of his appearance. People notice him, and make an opinion of him. If he's barking at people, I don't think the Drake tribe is going to have much guilt booting him. If he's not Drake's first boot, if Drake goes to TC a second time, I think he might be it.

    Sandra: It's all about if she can hold her snarks. I read somewhere that in her Yahoo Platinum on the first episode that she will be nice [to Jon] so she can advance in the game, so I don't think this will be too much of an issue. If she doesn't piss her tribemates off and gets into an alliance that fits her, I think she should be going pretty far, at least to the merge.

    Shawn: He has an even bigger target on his back than Burton, but I guess this is only true depending on how his tribe reacts to his obviously losing or breaking the spear. They could side with Rupert and get angry at Shawn, or side with Shawn and get angry with Rupert. So until we see the second episode to see how the tribe reacts, I'm not sure how far he could be going, but obviously is a candidate for first boot.

    Trish: I'd say it is virtually impossible for her to be Drake's first boot, and I think she will fly under the radar until maybe the merge or so. I am in the "Trish is going far" camp. Trish is in a good spot. She's old enough as to not be seen as a threat, but young enough so that the tribe won't have to question if she's pulling her weight - not that the marathon runner should have any problem with that at all (and look at her go pulling that cannon in Ep. 1!) She's in it for the long haul, folks.

  2. #2
    FORT Fogey TheFlying's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Posts
    926
    Aw, noone's interested in in-depth discussion?

  3. #3
    Evil Slash Crazy Miss Filangi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Looking for a place to happen
    Age
    40
    Posts
    11,376
    Interesting. It's obvious you've given this a lot of thought. Well done.

    Unfortunately, I don't have a lot to contribute right now after the first episode - I'm usually often wrong.

    I *do* think that there will be a lot of trouble on Morgan if they don't get their crap together - and really soon. Andrew has appointed himself as the leader, which is never a good thing that early. I will never understand why people don't realize that you have to work as a TEAM. What exactly has Andrew done as a leader? If you annoint yourself as leader too early, you end up with a target on your back when things go wrong.

    It's so early, but I think Drake is in a good position. Some early friendships seem to have emerged, (Burton/Shawn - Sandra/Trish) and they have worked well as a team. After Rupert went out on his fish hunt, Burton and Shawn managed to swallow their pride and thank him... and Rupert to his credit didn't rub their noses in his success.

    Again, my feelings could change very quickly after next week's episode. 90 minutes is still pretty hard to predict anything too substantial.

  4. #4
    Premium Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    446
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFlying
    Aw, noone's interested in in-depth discussion?
    From my perspective, it looks like Sandra may be the leader of her tribe, as subtle as it may seem. So, looking at who might get the boot from her tribe, it is probably somebody that she is not confident in. After 90 minutes it is hard to tell, but I would get the impression that she is not to found of Jon, so I would say that Jon or Christa would probably be the first 2 to possibly go. They appear to be the weakest link of the bunch. plus, if I have learned anything from the editing in the past Survivor series's, it seems that whoever gets the most camera time early, compliments of the editors, are usually the first to go. Christa and Jon fit that MO. See ya.. RC

  5. #5
    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Above the Cheddar Curtain
    Age
    40
    Posts
    1,567
    I think I've speculated on most of this in other posts, but I'll add a bit here too. For Drake, I agree Roz_City that Sandra may be able to assume some sort of leadership role or at least formulate decisions for some of the other members. A power struggle between Rupert, Burton and Shawn may put her there. I haven't seen enough to know if anyone else will stand up, but Jon and maybe Christa will annoy people and be out.

    As for Morgan, they may have a "leader", but the rest of the tribe is all over the place. Ryan S. and Lillian may have an alliance, but unless something big happens on the next episode, one of them will probably be gone. Ryan O. and Osten will probably question Andrew's "leadership" and a split will occur. I don't see those three aligning and all getting to the merge. (at this rate, they will only have 2 or 3 people at the merge). Morgan's best chance is to become a team, where everyone is listened to. No one listened to Ryan S., and this type of thinking will cost them. If they don't, a lot of challenges will be lost and whoever is blamed will be gone. They may "mutiny", and I could really see someone like Darrah getting out of the way and making it to the final two.
    Log off. That cookie sh*t makes me nervous. --Tony Soprano

    So I said to him, "Look, buddy, your car was upside down when we got here. And as for your Grandma, she shouldn't have mouthed off like that!" --Homer Simpson

  6. #6
    FORT Fogey TheFlying's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Posts
    926
    it seems that whoever gets the most camera time early, compliments of the editors, are usually the first to go.
    Wouldn't that be Rupert though? He's really begging for people to make big judgements about him, and there hasn't been evidence of any real alliance except that Burton and Shawn will surely vote the same. Since they seem to be the only alliance on Drake, if they feel threatened, the other people will have to go along in fear of what happened to Nicole (not that they even know she's gone at that point but you know what I'm saying). I mean, this theory basically screams correct considering Rupert and Shawn clash next episode, though we don't know:

    a) How big the clash will actually be.

    b) How the other tribemates will react to it.

    c) What Shawn (and Burton) will do about it.

    They may "mutiny", and I could really see someone like Darrah getting out of the way and making it to the final two.
    I think that thinking will only help her make the merge. Once the contestants who are left merge, I would be extremely surprised if anyone took on a leadership role for the sole reason of hoping to make people like them and not get voted out. That's not going to happen. If Darrah gets to the Final 2 she will probably have a good alliance.

    How could Darrah get to the Final 2 pre merge? She seems like good friends with Tijuana, they are always around each other.

    Alliance: Darrah, Tijuana.

    Now, I do firmly believe Michelle will make the merge. I also think if she does she has a good chance of fitting right in with Darrah and Tijuana (Tijuana herself seems "in" with everyone in the tribe, and I don't think she's going to be someone that will go out of her way to cause problems with herself especially with horney Osten on the team).

    Alliance: Michelle, Darrah, Tijuana.

    I'm wondering, if either Christa or Sandra make the merge, they might be able to join up with them, and almost create a dominating alliance.

    A scenerio which could happen:

    I think Darrah and Tijuana are going to stay tight. Tijuana is going to be able to count on Osten for his vote to whomever Tijuana whats him to vote for. When it gets down to it, if this alliance needs to start getting rid of its own members, I think because Tijuana and Darrah are from the same tribe they will team up with Osten and use him to be able to get rid of anyone else they team up with.

    That could definitely push the three of them very far.

  7. #7
    Back from the dead! brusch's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Above the Cheddar Curtain
    Age
    40
    Posts
    1,567
    I think everyone is making excellent points, but after only one episode it's pretty tough to speculate on all of the different things that may occur. After one episode of the Amazon, I probably didn't think much more of Rob that I do now of Jon, yet now he is one of my all-time favorites. Matthew wasn't on much and then was portrayed as "crazy", but he made the final 2 and everyone loved him. Dave and Deena thought they were in, but they were out. Don't even get me started on Jenna and Heidi . But speculating is still fun and comparing one episode here to the other complete seasons, there is a good chance that sliding under the radar and not annoying other people will get a couple of people to the end. The "leaders" will go, one of them may get to the end with crucial IC wins. Ultimately, it's all about the alliance, and the next couple of episodes will begin to shake things out. That's why I like this show, no matter what spoilers we may read, there are a lot of twists and turns to get us there.
    Log off. That cookie sh*t makes me nervous. --Tony Soprano

    So I said to him, "Look, buddy, your car was upside down when we got here. And as for your Grandma, she shouldn't have mouthed off like that!" --Homer Simpson

  8. #8
    Back to the kitty lalol's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    2,416
    [QUOTE=TheFlying]
    I am in the "Trish is going far" camp. QUOTE]
    I'm in too

  9. #9
    Premium Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    446
    quote:
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    it seems that whoever gets the most camera time early, compliments of the editors, are usually the first to go.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The Flying said:
    "Wouldn't that be Rupert though"?

    From watching past Survivors, I have seen several trends, some obvious some not to obvious. My take on the editing and camera time per episode is this, it seems that when somebody gets quite a bit camera time early, it is do in part to 2 reasons:
    1) They are normally not going to last very long, so the Producers want you to get to know them a little before they get the boot, especially if they were fan favorites, Mad Dog from S2, Hunter from S4, Carl from S3, there are many examples to cite.
    2) Sometimes, and I believe this in the case of Rupert, their personalities are such that the Producers feel that they may engage the audience, because of having an interesting personality. These folks usually last a long time and become heroes or villians. Rudy, Clay, Brian, Big Tom, Richard, these folks all got alot camera time early on, and all made it very far or eventually won.

    My basic point is that I believe after watching all six of the Survivor series's, that they sort of show their hand in the editing. I believe that in S4, they tried to fool the audience, and show a slightly different hand, it did'nt work, and when Vecepia won, nobody really knew her. That also I believe had probably the lowest in the Survivor Series TV Rating's.
    Sorry to rant, have a great night... See ya.. RC

  10. #10
    Gotta Love that Scout scooberoo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    1,776
    I'm getting a major tribe split vibe ala Survivor: Africa's Samburu tribe... I think there will be butting heads between the young guys and Rupert. Some people will think that Rupert is too useful to be voted out right away, but others will think that they need the strength of Burton/Shawn. I'm getting an early boot vibe from Rupert, even though he's a major fan favorite. I predict that he'll be out third, because I can't imagine Morgan winning thwe next challenge. Morgan is too divided at the moment. Anyway, after Rupert goes, it will be the young teeny boppers alligned, and Trish will probably be their second target. No real reason besides the fact that there's a huge age gap between her, and the rest of the tribe. I really want Trish to go far, but I just don't see it happening. I think the most safe for the tribe are: Michelle, Christa, and Burton. Of course, this is all pure conjecture.

    It's really nice to see that you like the show, and like having deep discussions, TheFlying. I'm looking forward to your future posts.

    P.S. Trish is my favorite, but I guess I'm too much of a realist.

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 6 123456 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.