Why Russell Can't Win the Million Now

[ActMax]

I like Russell, probably best villian ever, but he is extremely dumb in overall strategic thinking. He has and probably will continue to piss off every single player in this game. He not only has and will PO them, he has crossed the line to make these jury members HATE his guts. That is his downfall.

Its one thing to make some semi-shady Boston Rob moves and blind side a few peeps, or let some go for an alliance. But Russell has crossed the line over to not only making the heroes loath him, his own tribe will now loath him.

Bottom line is I don't see any jury member voting for him over any of the other players, including Parvati, which is probably the 2nd most hated player left. Russell may not even get a single jury vote, this all assuming he even makes it to the finals.

I like Russell, but dude, you can't make everyone literally hate your guts and expect to win the jury. You have to be a little more subtle, and Russell is about as subtle as a Bull in Pomplona, rampaging down the Blvd., destroying every single living thing in its wake.

[fluff]

I like Russell, probably best villian ever, but he is extremely dumb in overall strategic thinking. He has and probably will continue to piss off every single player in this game. He not only has and will PO them, he has crossed the line to make these jury members HATE his guts. That is his downfall.

That is his downfall now and will remain so in any future "All-Star" seasons he may play in.
This was his best opportunity to ever win Survivor, imo.
No one knew him going in. Yes, he was cast on the Villains tribe, but a little critical thinking from the other contestants could have lead to them questioning his inclusion on that tribe.
Sandra was a Villain and Candice a Hero, afterall, both casting choices that have puzzled people.

Russell has been successful in pulling fringe players into his alliances and if the sole purpose of this game was to make it to the final three (or 2, whatever they intend to have) he'd probably be heralded as one of the best.
Unfortunately for him he has to face the jury and like you, ActMax, I can't see one person voting for him, let alone the four or five he would need to win.

He's told elaborate lies when it simply wasn't necessary to beef up his story to that degree.
There's no requirement to be truthful either and I don't think this jury would necessarily decline to vote for someone because they told the odd porky.

I did enjoy his play during his first season simply because I enjoyed that he wasn't shy of making bold moves. As someone who enjoys the presence of HII's (although this season there have been too many for my liking) I loved that FoaFoa was able to stave of the inevitability of a Pagonging post merge.

I also think the jury in his first season was incredibly bitter and although not required to justify their voting decision, it was clear that apart from Erik none of them had what I would consider a valid reason to give the title to Natalie.
"She killed a rat and she's sweet" aren't valid reasons to me.
I don't care how arrogant Russell was (and still is) from what I saw I felt he deserved to win the title that season.

I really think Russell's blown it.
We see him shaking hands on a deal with Rupert in the preview for the next episode, but I don't think much will come of that.
I think the three remaining women will hold strong as a voting bloc and will try to keep Russell part of their alliance.
I don't see why anyone wanting to win this show wouldn't want to sit next to him in the final three. Him being there turns a final three into a two-horse race.
There simply isn't anyone left who he can sit beside and hope to get votes, imo.

[ActMax]

His best bet would have been to take Parvati and Danielle to the finals. They to are villians, and especially Parvati would be close to being as hated as Russell, and since she's already won, Russell would have had a better shot at winning with those 3.

Now there is no chance of that. Even if he manages to end up in the finals with Jerri or Sandra and Parvati, he won't win, because I don't see anyone not giving it to either Jerri or Sandra. And if he ended up with Rupert or Colby he would have absolutely 0, zero, zip, nada chance.

Even Sandra and Parvati, both past winners, I think the jury would give it to Sandra before Russell just because she is a nice chick, very likeable, and hasn't POd ANYBODY in this game.

His speech will inevitably be the "well I"m the best player and stratigizer, that is why you should vote for me." But no one will care because they will not be able to get past their hate, and maybe rightfully so. He has played way to over the top in being ruthless. Sure you have to stab a few people in the back, but you have to smile while you do it, and leave them some logical reason why it had to be done, i.e., it was for my alliance, and you weren't in it, or someone had to go out of our alliance.

His Kamikazi, slash and burn strategy ain't going to cut it with this crowd, I just don't see it being possible for him to win.

[fluff]

His speech will inevitably be the "well I"m the best player and stratigizer, that is why you should vote for me." But no one will care because they will not be able to get past their hate, and maybe rightfully so.

I'm going to go ahead and assume he gets to the final with Parvati and Sandra.
I think those two women will now form a tight bond and if there's anyway they can sit in the final three with Russell they would be fools not to drag him along and neither woman has shown herself to be one.

I don't see any angle he can take with the jury that'll persuade anyone to vote for him.
He's quite obviously everything he's shown himself to be, imo this is no act.
I'm no great fan of Rupert (although that trick with the rock in his pocket was great) but there was no need for him to sit firing insults at Rupert last night.
When you're in a power position what possible good does it do you to gloat?
Russell just doesn't seem to understand that.

This isn't a foot race.
The competition isn't over once you take your seat in front of the jury. You could even argue that that's when the difficult part really starts.

Even if it's a final two with him and Parvati I still don't see him getting the votes to win.
Throw Sandra into the mix and I see him struggling to get any votes at all.

Of course you have to make it to the end in order to even be in a position to win and some of the moves Russell has made have been necessary to keep him in the game.
I don't see how the jury can fail to take issue with the way he's carried himself during the game though.
The arrogance and nastiness is so OTT that I think he loses the votes of Rupert, Colby and Coach simply because they'll take exception to the way he's treated people.
Nothing he's done is against the rules, but that doesn't mean he's always played a shrewd game.

[Brooks]

Russell was strategically correct in breaking up the Parv/Danielle alliance. From Danielle's meltdown at TC, everyone could see that Danielle had to go, so I think he gets a nod on that one. Unfortunately for him, his timing was wrong, unless Colby and Rupert really do align with him. I don't think he wins against even them in F3, but they are his best chance.

[Mariner]

I think the only way Russell could win now would be in a final two with Colby. Colby seems so checked out of the game that he might as well be a cardboard cut out of himself. I could see a jury barely giving Russell the win over him. Against the other remaining players, Russell has no chance. He sealed his fate with that ridiculous attempt to separate Danielle and Parvati by telling both of them unbelievable lies and then trying to bully Parv into not speaking with Danielle. Cripes. Just blindside one of them. The jury would have respected that.

[ActMax]

I do see one scenario that allows Russell to win. If he does go to the final 3 with Sandra and Parvati (both winners), he may be able to convince them not to give a 2nd million over to Sandra since she's already won one, and he hasn't. He would have to be very convincing that it was nothing personal, that he played like a villian on purpose and he really does like and respect everyone on the jury blah blah, yada yada yada.

Granted its an extremely looooong shot, but it is possible, that they are convinced that he was just "playing" a villian, isn't really one except for on the show, and it makes no sense to award a previous winner with another million dollars.

Also, its possible he could promise to donate a lot of it to a charity etc., but I doubt they would believe that, so not sure at all that that's a good way to go either. In any event, its still a very long shot for Russell. Taking Sandra and Parvati is his ONLY shot, any other scenario and there is probably NO chance at all for Russell to win.

[ActMax]

I think the only way Russell could win now would be in a final two with Colby. Colby seems so checked out of the game that he might as well be a cardboard cut out of himself. I could see a jury barely giving Russell the win over him. Against the other remaining players, Russell has no chance. He sealed his fate with that ridiculous attempt to separate Danielle and Parvati by telling both of them unbelievable lies and then trying to bully Parv into not speaking with Danielle. Cripes. Just blindside one of them. The jury would have respected that.

I respectfully disagree with that. I think Colby would win hands down, even though he played like total luke warm crap this season. The jury is primarily Heroes, that alone I don't think gives Russell a chance.

If a hero is in the finals, I think ALL of the heroes vote for the hero in the finals. I don't see it possible at all that any heroes would vote for any villian, unless there are only villians in the final 2 or 3.

[Krom]

Russell likely never COULD win with his style of play. He's definitely a guy playing to stir up the greatest amount of #%it, get the most notoriety, make the loudest noise, etc. Its a style of play completely about making the biggest impact... but never winning a jury vote.

Does this magically makes him "a lousy player" as some may insist? No. Just one who realistically isn't playing for the million in any way, shape or form. Whether he knows it or not. Whether he ADMITS it or not.

[Mariner]

I respectfully disagree with that. I think Colby would win hands down, even though he played like total luke warm crap this season. The jury is primarily Heroes, that alone I don't think gives Russell a chance.

If a hero is in the finals, I think ALL of the heroes vote for the hero in the finals. I don't see it possible at all that any heroes would vote for any villian, unless there are only villians in the final 2 or 3.

You may be right. I'm giving the jury the benefit of the doubt for respecting Russell for actually having a pulse. Colby hasn't outwitted or outplayed anyone. Heck, he hasn't even seemed to try in individual immunity challenges which was his signature. All he would have done if he makes it to the end is outlast. And, that would be pure luck.

I understand your point about convincing a jury that he deserves a win more than the former winners, Parvati and Sandra. However, I don't think he'd have a shot in hell against them. They are both highly articulate and what is the chance that he hasn't already or wouldn't at Final Tribal boast about not needing the money? He's wired in a way that he can't help himself. He has to boast about how superior he is and how inferior everyone else is and then pull short sighted moves intended to prove his superiority. I can't imagine what Colby could possibly say to a jury. Darn those donuts were good?