FORTers... time to poll the jury

[Krom]

In the Who is your winner right now thread we've been projecting who might win.

But more than just projecting that, for me one of the most "fun" parts of this final four stage is extending that projection to analyzing the jury, and how they might vote with each potential finalist. Its kind of a "game theory" excercise.

So the jury is...

Blobby John Cowpoke, Jamie the Psycho, Gary "Boom Boom" Hoggwhatever, Judd "Scumbag" Doorman, Cindy The Zookeeper + the next two boots

Obviously a lot depends on HOW the next two boots occur. That, in fact, not only affects their votes but in some ways maybe also some of the people on the fence who are already on the jury. But I think we can still project.

Theoretical final two: Steph v. Lydia
Blobby: Hesitantly... for Lydia.
Jamie: I think despite it all, Steph.
Gary: Steph. He still admires her.
Judd: Lydia. Cursing all the way
Cindy: Lydia. She will feel Lydia's hand was forced in her own boot.
Danni: Steph, even if Steph herself was responsible for her boot.
Rafe: Hard to say. It would depend on how his boot occured. Probably still Steph.
Steph probably wins. Barely. Maybe. Rafe would be the swing, or maybe Cindy.

Theoretical final two: Steph v. Rafe - note I think this is a very unlikely finale...
Blobby: Rafe.
Jamie: Steph.
Gary: Hard to say. Probably Rafe, but who knows?
Judd: Rafe will be the lesser of two evils to him... but not by much.
Cindy: Rafe, despite the fact that she tried to get him booted.
Danni: Steph. She may feel Rafe betrayed her.
Lydia: Rafe. I think. But who actually understands the mind of Lydia?
So hard to call (good thing this ending is so unlikely). Rafe has the advantage though.

Theoretical final two: Steph v. Danni
Blobby: Danni
Jamie: Danni
Gary: Danni. (he doesn't blame her for his boot, I bet)
Judd: Danni. Even though she got him booted, she also had no promises to him.
Cindy: Hard to say. For some strange reason I always got the feeling she didn't like Danni much. But who's "betrayal" will hit her harder? Probably Stephs. So Danni, I guess, gets her vote.
Rafe: Depends on who backstabs him. All things being even, he'd probably vote for Steph... but they may not be even.
Lydia: If she scents out the rest of the jury is for one or the other, she will follow along like a lemming. Ergo, she votes Danni. Unless Danni was somehow directly responsible for her boot.
Almost definitely, Danni wins this match... The good news is I don't think Steph will be able to predict these votes, other than Gary and Judd.

Theoretical final two: Danni v. Lydia
Blobby: Danni
Jamie: Danni (Lydia will irritate him on principal, I bet)
Gary: Danni
Judd: Lydia. For him it will be a protest vote to let the idiot win.
Cindy: Lydia? Danni? I don't know. Probably Lydia.
Rafe: Would hate to vote Lydia but would do it if Danni backstabbed him.
Steph: Hard to call. I think she actually respects Danni, so even if Danni has her booted she might go for her.
Danni wins.

Theoretical final two: Danni v. Rafe
Blobby: Hard to call. I don't quite recall what he thought of Rafe. I can see him voting "hot girl" over "gay guy" just because, though...
Jamie: Danni. Less water under the bridge...
Gary: Danni.
Judd: Danni.
Cindy: Rafe. I think. Unless the car whining is sharp in her memory.
Lydia: Rafe.
Steph: Depends on the backstab. Probably votes Danni.
Danni wins, but I'm not sure about Cindy and Steph's votes.

Theoretical final two: Rafe v. Lydia
Blobby: Rafe.
Jamie: Hard to call. Probably Rafe, but he'd hate it.
Gary: Rafe. For sure.
Judd: Lydia.
Cindy: Hard to call. Probably Lydia, since she'll probably remember the car whining.
Steph: Rafe. She'd rather vote for someone she's mad at than someone she pities.
Danni: In the end... Rafe. Unless the backstab was viscous.
Rafe likely wins this scenario.

In other words... Lydia is the "magic bullet" as a F2 partner for everyone. They can all beat her, and I bet they all know this.

[superfly]

It really depends on the grudge factor. Will Jamie, Judd, Cindy hold a grudge against Steph/Rafe or will they respect how they were able to outmaneuver them in the game?

[Krom]

Jamie, despite being nasty in the game, is actually FAR less likely to hold a grudge, because I think he saw himself as a Rob. C.-like gamesman. He'll vote for the person who most earned it, I actually think. That COULD be Steph or Rafe, but it could also be Danni. That said, I seem to recall him disliking Rafe, which might also enter into things if I'm remembering correctly.

Cindy, I think, may actually feel similarly, except for the fact that she may have a lot of lingering resentment about Rafe seeming to be a bad sport about the car thing.

Judd WILL bear a grudge and won't put it aside in the least. His will be a protest vote, or as close to possible as he can get depending on who's in the finale. Danni v. Lydia and Steph v. Rafe are the only contests where he might have to strain his brain--in the first case because he doesn't care much about either of those two and in the second case because he hates both of that pair equally.

Grudgewise, the potential elimination of Stephanie and Rafe will be bigger factors than anyone else other than Judd. They are both the types to bear grudges, although at this point I think their potential hard feelings against each other might outweigh anything similar against Danni, who has less of a history with either of them than they do with each other.

Lydia is dumb as a post, so I have a bit of trouble predicting how she'll act. I tend to think in most cases she'd vote with a majority, assuming she knows what that is. But I get the sense she might also have some inbuilt loyalty to Rafe.

[Oceansands]

I think Gary will be the only one that will vote for the best player overall. Don't think he holds grudges. Not sure who he thinks would be the best though. I'm sure he doesn't see lydia as the best athletic and that would be important to him.

[Aota Bass]

I think your instinct about Judd holding a grudge while Gary & Jamie go for who outplayed them is correct. But I disagree on Rafe- although he's taken small things personally, I don't think he would blame any of these ladies once he's come all the way to final four. It will all hang on immunity and I don't think he would be THAT upset if, for instance, Danni chose to take Steph or Lydia over him to the finals.

My speculations ('cuz why not?)

Lydia v. Steph
BJ- Reluctantly Steph
Jamie- Lydia (he seemed to have a lot of respect for her, even if she did blindside him in the end)
Gary- Steph (again, respect factor)
Judd- Lydia (bigger grudge against Steph, he wasn't aligned with Lydia at that point)
Cindy- Steph
Danni- Lydia????
Rafe- Lydia????
Lydia wins, maybe? Really depends on what circumstances are around Rafe & Danni's ousting, but Lydia's hard work and meal-providing around camp and general likability earn her enough votes over Steph's more intense strategy and bullying.

Steph v. Rafe (I also think this won't happen)
BJ- Rafe, definitely
Jamie- Rafe
Gary- Rafe, definitely
Judd- Ummmm.... Rafe?
Cindy- Steph
Danni- Rafe, definitely
Lydia- Hmmm... she likes 'em both... Rafe?
Rafe wins hands down.

Steph v. Danni
BJ- Danni
Jamie- Danni
Gary- Danni
Judd- Danni? probably?
Cindy- Steph (she has this chip on her shoulder)
Lydia- Danni?
Rafe- Danni
Danni wins hands down.

Danni v. Lydia
BJ- Danni
Jamie- Lydia?
Gary- Danni
Judd- Lydia?
Cindy- Lydia
Rafe- Danni
Steph- Danni
Danni probably wins

Danni v. Rafe
BJ- Danni
Jamie- Rafe
Gary- Danni
Judd- Rafe?
Cindy- Rafe
Lydia- Rafe?
Steph- Danni?
REALLY tough to call- could go either way, but I'd say Rafe

Rafe v. Lydia
BJ- Rafe
Jamie- Lydia?
Gary- Rafe
Judd- Rafe?
Cindy- Rafe
Steph- Rafe
Danni- Rafe
Rafe wins hands down

[AsIs]

Judd doesn't know that Steph voted for him until AFTER the show airs here in the states. So I don't think he would hold a grudge against her at this point.

[user name]

Those who played fairly good games for the most part ruined them with stupid decisions. Those who played no game don't have as much of a target on their backs for backstabbing. These last two boots still count when it comes down to determining the winner, sometimes more than others. This is very likely to be largely emotion based, and in those instances where people can't pick apart someone for backstabbing them or for not being on their alliance, I would not be surprised if they find other things, such as Rafe being gay as you mentioned (Jamie and Bobby Jon seem too backwoodsy to accept that).

Steph v. Lydia
Bobby Jon: Lydia
Jamie: Lydia
Gary: Steph
Judd: Steph
Cindy: Steph
Danni: Steph
Rafe: Steph
Steph wins fairly easily. I could see Bobby Jon and Jamie swinging to Steph, but I don't see anyone swinging to Lydia, except for maybe Rafe if she votes him out.

Steph v. Rafe
Bobby Jon: Rafe
Jamie: Rafe
Gary: Steph
Judd: Steph
Cindy: Steph
Danni: Steph
Lydia: Steph
Again, Steph wins fairly easily, and I could see both Bobby Jon and Jamie being swings. In this scenario, though, depending on the next two boots, I see much more potential for a voting change.

Steph v. Danni
Bobby Jon: Danni
Jamie: Danni
Gary: Danni
Judd: Steph
Cindy: Steph
Rafe: Steph
Lydia: Steph
Steph wins very closely, and this could easily be swayed by the final boots.

Danni v. Lydia
Bobby Jon: Danni
Jamie: Danni
Gary: Danni
Judd: Danni
Cindy: Lydia
Rafe: Danni
Steph: Danni
Danni wins in a blowout. Even the last two boots really don't matter.

Danni v. Rafe
Bobby Jon: Danni
Jamie: Danni
Gary: Danni
Judd: Danni
Cindy: Rafe
Steph: Danni
Lydia: Rafe
Danni wins easily, but this one I was more hesitant with the votes than the others.

Rafe v. Lydia
If I were to do picks from this, I'd just be writing down random names. This could go any way, from blowout for either one to very close. The next two votes would probably be critical.

Steph needs to get rid of Danni, and Danni needs to get rid of Steph. Lydia and Rafe are better off sticking with each other, but that's a tricky proposition. Rafe's looking like a better F2 partner with each passing day, while Steph and Danni continue to look worse. The whole reason for booting him before was he was too nice, but now he's just turned into a backstabber, which makes him untrustworthy but worth taking to the end.

[JBJFAN]

Here's mine:

Steph vs. Danni

Bobby Jon: Danni [Steph makes him want to puke, he said]
Jamie: Danni [He never liked Steph anyway and then she backstabbed him]
Gary: Danni [Even though she voted to boot him, too]
Judd: Danni [Steph is a scumbag]
Cindy: See Judd
Rafe: Steph [he doesn't need Danni anymore and a vote for Steph will make him feel morally superior]
Lydia: Danni [Steph ate too much]

Danni in a landslide.


Steph vs. Lydia

Bobby Jon: Lydia [he has nothing against her amd Steph still makes his stomach sick]
Jamie: He holds his nose and votes for Steph [Lydia's betrayal bothered him more than anybody else's]
Gary: Steph [He doesn't think Lydia earned it]
Judd: Lydia [she's a scumbag, but Steph's a bigger one]
Cindy: Hard to call, probably Lydia [getting backstabbed by Steph after taking her on reward will be uppermost in her mind]
Rafe: Steph [they were closer than he and Lydia were, and his need to feel morally superior will outweigh everything, even if Steph totally stabs him in the back]
Danni: Steph [admiration for another "strong woman"]

Steph squeaks this out.

Steph vs Rafe

Bobby Jon: Rafe [unless his redneck roots overcome his sick tummy]
Jamie: See Bobby Jon [They both backstabbed him, he can't stand either of them, I can't call it]
Gary: Steph [macho former jock, he'll convince himself Steph earned it even though Rafe won half the challenges]
Judd: Holds his nose and votes for Rafe [and gives us our best hope in 5 years for another Snake Eats Rat speech]
Cindy: Probably Steph.
Danni: Steph
Lydia: Rafe [Still resenting all those missed meals]

Hard to call, because they're the 2 biggest backstabbers in the game, but probably Rafe by a hair.

Rafe vs. Lydia

Bobby Jon: Can't call [He stopped puking, but how much of a redneck is he?]
Jamie: Rafe [Lydia betrayed him after he looked out for her. That's bigger than redneckism]
Gary: No idea
Judd: Who's the bigger scumbag? probably Rafe
Cindy: Lydia [girl power]
Danni: See Cindy
Steph: Rafe [unless he pulls something totally outrageous between now and the finale]

Close call, too many variables, with Gary probably the swing vote.

Danni vs. Anyone

Danni wins in a landslide [flew inder the radar, didn't win too much, kept her mouth shut and didn't make anybody any promises. In other words, had no loyalties except to old Number #1 only].

[user name]

Bobby Jon supposedly forgave Steph after committing a far worse move himself than she did to him in Palau. I don't know that I can buy it.

I'd forgotten about Jamie being pissed at Lydia. I agree it's unlikely she'll get a vote from him.

[Shady64]

I'll give it a try:

Rafe vs. Lydia

Bobby Jon: no idea
Jamie: Lydia (more pissed at Rafe and Lydia survived without his protection)
Gary: Rafe?
Judd: Lydia. More mad at Rafe
Cindy: Rafe. better gameplay and not mad, she voted for him to go that episode too
Steph: Rafe, unless he screwed her over.
Danni: Rafe. Had better gameplay. Likes both but closer to Rafe

Rafe vs. Steph

Bobby Jon: No idea, lean towards Steph
Jamie: Rafe. Anybody but Steph
Gary: Rafe. better gameplay
Judd: Steph if his comments weren't an act
Cindy: Rafe. Same reasons as Rafe/Lydia F2
Lydia: Rafe. Nicer, better liked, helped save her from being booted, stronger physical game
Danni: Rafe. More strategic gameplay and better physical gameplay.

Rafe vs. Danni
I think these 2 played the best game. In different ways but equally as well.

Bobby Jon: Danni. Close bond, outlasted while in minority. Better gameplay
Jamie: Danni. mad at Rafe
Gary: Danni. Closer to Danni, likes more, more strategic gameplay
Judd: Danni.mad at Rafe.
Cindy: Lean towards Rafe but toss up. They both played well, underestimated both of them, not mad at either,
Steph: Danni. Doesn't know Rafe was the mastermind in the alliance. Likes both but Danni played better and broke the alliance
Lydia: Rafe. Closer to him, went through the whole game with him


Danni vs. Lydia
I don't see this one happening at all.

Bobby Jon: Danni. Same reasons as Rafe/Danni F2
Jamie: Danni. mad at Lydia.
Gary: Danni. Same reasons as Rafe/Danni F2
Judd: Danni. Not in alliance, didn't screw him
Cindy: Danni. Big threat, underestimated her, outlasted everyone. Lydia rode coattails
Steph: Danni, unless she screws her out of the game
Rafe: Danni

Danni vs. Steph

Bobby Jon: Danni. stronger bond. Outlasted majority. better gameplay physically and mentally
Jamie: Danni. anyone but Steph
Gary: Danni. Same reasons as Rafe/Danni F2
Judd: Steph, if we believe his comments
Cindy: Toss up, leaning towards Danni. More of a threat, underestimated her, better gameplay.
Lydia: Danni. Helped save her and felt thrown away by Steph and alliance
Rafe: Danni, even if she screws him. He's all about strategic gameplay. Knows she had it, knows Steph didn't, it was him.


Lydia vs. Steph

Bobby Jon: no idea
Jamie: Lydia. Mad at both but anyone but Steph
Gary: No idea, lean towards Steph
Judd: Steph, if we believe his comments
Cindy: Steph
Danni: No idea
Rafe: Lydia. Had to save herself 4 times. Nicer. Worked hard in campto make up for her shortcomings. Helped with Judd and Cindy boot