Is the season now predictable?

[Shady64]

The whole edit of Rafe possibly switching is the usual Survivor red herring to throw off viewers from what will become a predictable game from this point on. Keep us all hoping "will he do it this episode"? He's got nothing to gain by switching alliances and everything to lose. The more I think about it, the more I see it going like this:

Ep 9 boot: Bobby Jon Strong threat, same reason as Brandon boot

Ep 10 boot: Judd They didn't boot him when he stole the beer and had a meltdown in TC and they didn't boot him when he blew chunks in the shelter because they still needed him. He has now outlasted his usefulness. They have booted the majority of Old Nakum, making it impossible for Judd to try and switch alliances again (in the event of a desperation bid by any of them). They no longer have to put up with Judd's antics and he is seen as a bigger immunity threat than Danni. Steph and Jamie view each other as the bigger goat to go against in F2, not you.

Ep 11: Cindy This was planned as Danni's boot. Wishful thinking/hoping on my part that Danni either wins immunity or she finds the immunity idol and uses it this episode. Forcing new Nakum to pick someone else. Cindy was always expendible and going to be boot 6 anyway, they get rid of her 1 episode early.

Ep 12 Danni Immunity threat, F2 threat to win, not in core alliance.
Ep 13 Gary Immunity threat, F2 threat to win, not in core alliance
Ep14 Lydia F2 threat to win over Steph, Jamie and Rafe.
Ep 15 Jamie smaller goat of the 2 for Rafe. Rafe wins immunity ( endurance) and has best chance to beat Steph in F2

F2 Steph and Rafe. Steph argues that Rafe was a coat tail rider, weak player and sat out most challenges or did poorly in challenges he did participated in. Not much on strategy. Rafe argues this is Steph's second time playing the game. She knew what to expect, he didn't. He deserves it more being a first time player and making it to F2 by his *cough*wits*cough* even though he didn't have the physical game, he did outlast everyone else and managed to do it without screwing people over or pissing them off. Showed all jury members respect and is likeable. He strategically got himself to F2 despite his inabilites in challenges

In a survivor first, it's a unanimous decision 7-0 for Rafe as Survivor winner. Steph gets no votes because the jury members either hate her for screwing them over or agree with Rafe that she doesn't deserve it as a second time player

IMO, that's the way I predict the rest of the season going. I wonder how close I'll come.

[JLuvs]

I don't think it is going to go down quite that way. I do think Bobby John is gone next, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Danni make it to the final two.

[Shady64]

I don't think it is going to go down quite that way. I do think Bobby John is gone next, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Danni make it to the final two.

I went through the whole thing logically. The powers in charge right now and what scenario would be in their own best interest to win the money. I don't see any other way for Lydia or Rafe to get there (F2) other than sticking with Jamie and Steph. Steph and Jamie want each other but if they had to have 2 others, they'd choose the 2 weaker ones for a good arguement to the jury. I really do think each of them will see the other 3 as the best chance they have of winning the money out of everyone that's left

[kraziladi]

My thoughts were the same as yours Shady, based on Rafe's edit last episode, "winner"???

I wouldn't mind a Steph, Rafe, Lydia F3. I don't care too much for Jamie.
It does appear that the core alliance of 4 have the upper hand.

[user name]

I'm not convinced Bobby Jon will be the next boot, but he's obviously one of the odds on favorite to go next week.

I get the feeling nobody in Judd's "alliance" are sick of his antics. Only Margaret was. And maybe Cindy. That could certainly change, though. I also don't see him as a bigger threat than the others, unless it comes down to sheer strength as opposed to any other physical (or mental) aspect.

If Cindy goes in a few episodes, I'd suspect it's either because they have no other option or because she tries to flip it and acts too early or gets caught. As things are, she can't win.

Danni's not really liked by the jury. Then again, I don't think she'll be hated either. This will likely cause her to get booted within the next few episodes, but it also makes her unthreatening as a final two opponent.

By that time, I suspect Gary will be in the core alliance. They're better off not letting him back in, but he's definitely going to make a go at getting the old team back together.

Some strength is almost guaranteed to get to the final three. Taking into account his behavior, I would not be surprised to see that strength be Jamie. However, anyone who wins the final immunity would be foolish to take him over almost anyone else.

If you want Rafe to win the final immunity challenge against two strong players and then go on to win unanimously, I'd suggest taking a page out of the Weavers' book and praying every 5 minutes starting now.

[karalott]

I think this season is going to be just like Africa and Outback, where one alliance pagongs the smaller alliance, except booting one of their own a few times. No matter what Gary may think, I don't see him getting in tight with anybody. Or not as tight as he may think he is or want to be. He'll be used for his vote and then be dumped, if he wasn't dumped already. Cindy will probably stick around awhile, because she's proven her loyality to Steph so I think she'll be at least final 5, unless she gets some immunities to get her into the final 4, or if she tries to pull something off and it backfires. At this point I don't think there's much Danni or Bobby Jon can do. I think Steph, Lydia, and Rafe will stick together, and probably bump Jamie and Judd because I have a feeling those two will be too unlikeable to even want next to you in the final 2. So I think Bobby Jon will be next because of the physical threat, and I really think Jamie will be itching to get rid of him (I hate to even think the spiel Jamie will give in voting Bobby Jon off). Gary or Danni may follow, then I'm going out on a limb and saying Jamie or Judd, followed by who's ever remaining of Gary and Danni. Then it'll be Judd/Jamie, Cindy, Lydia, Rafe, and Steph. I think at least 3 of the final 4 will be Lydia/Rafe/Steph (that's depressing to me ).

[Shady64]

Between Judd's blowup with Margaret, the beer stealing crap, "kiss my ass" to everyone and from the coming attractions, he pukes in the shelter, I think they will have had more than enough of him. Haven't we all and we only have to see him one hour a week Jamie had temporarily taken the heat off him this last episode but by blowing chunks in the shelter, he puts himself back in everyones sights. It's possible he wins immunity this coming episode which would give them the final wake up call to boot him. I agree, the only immunities that involves body weight will be to his advantage (or "dumb luck" ones like the air hockey island one in Vanuatu). The 2 that he was successful at were the mud pull and the ball roll. Both involve "girth" to win. He sucked at the ax throw and fell off the spider ropes, couldn't unite his bags in the immunity within a tribe challenge but did figure out the phrase even though it was simple.

Actually Danni is liked by what would be most of the the Jury. She was really tight with BJ and Gary, they formed a strong bond on that tribe.This past episode she was getting along just great with Rafe and it appears she has a good bond with Cindy (carry over from old Nakum??). Judd and Jamie not so good, but their vote decision would depend on who she is going against and if that person had screwed both of them to get to F2. I have no idea how she is with Lydia, did they show any interaction between them last week? I am guessing Steph sees her as the stronger competitor and may not like her because of that but that's just a guess. She's been nice and gets along well. The exception would be Jamie, but she's done nothing overt to alienate either him or Judd yet. She'd have votes from at least BJ, Gary, Cindy and Rafe. That's 4 in favor, enough to win. She might get more, depending who she'd be hypothetically in F2 with.

I don't "want" Rafe to do anything, it's not wishful thinknig. But of all possible challenges that Rafe could win, It's the final immunity that is his best chance. When 3 are left, it's always been an immunity that involves stamina and endurance. I think Vanuatu may have been the only F3 challenge that required some kind of strength to it, holding the bow and arrow but it was also about stamina. Other than that, to the best of my recollection, they have all been how long can you stand on uncomfortable stumps without lifting a foot or taking your hand off the pole or something equally similar. It doesn't matter how strong anyone is in this type of challenge, it's all about doing it longer or without making a mistake before the other 2. There's also the "making a deal" factor involved that can decide the outcome.

Who knows if this is how it will happen, just seemed common sense and logical outcome to me. Though those 2 things don't always have to do with decisions people make in this game. Rafe and Lydia are sitting in the best possible position right now. No one will go after them, there's too many other targets. I can't see either of them rocking the boat when they know they can coast and will at least make F4 with the core alliance they have right now. How will they get that far by making an alliance with Danni, BJ, and Cindy and/or Gary? At best one of them (Rafe or Lydia) will now go out in F5 rather than F4. That's a step back, not a step forward.

[user name]

They think Judd's a loud mouth, but they still get along with him. He's not hated enough that the jury will want him over Jamie (or someone who makes a crazy game changing backstabbing move).

If Danni is liked, she's liked in the outsider sense. If it comes down to who they like best, she hasn't been with most of them long enough to make an impact, and when given the chance to make an impact, she decided to complain about how much they complain and went off on her own to spite them. Unless she's up against someone who's hated by enough people, the only person I'd suggest likes her more than anybody else is Bobby Jon.

I have no idea how she is with Lydia, did they show any interaction between them last week?

They never show Lydia. Ever.

Because of the nature of the final challenges, level of fitness comes into play to the extent that the fittest person usually wins. The exceptions would be when Mathew threw it in Amazon (and the next fittest person won) and when the cameraman made Ethan fall in Africa, giving Kim the win. It's possible for a weak person to take it but unlikely.

Rafe and Lydia are sitting in the best possible position right now. No one will go after them, there's too many other targets. I can't see either of them rocking the boat when they know they can coast and will at least make F4 with the core alliance they have right now.

They're sitting in a good position. Problem is it probably won't work out. They'll go far, but unless they make a move at the right time, they're unlikely to make final two.

How will they get that far by making an alliance with Danni, BJ, and Cindy and/or Gary? At best one of them (Rafe or Lydia) will now go out in F5 rather than F4. That's a step back, not a step forward.

Not just that, but they also then become targets for their lack of trustworthiness and risk losing many jury votes. Sitting right where they are is both easy and ideal.

[echo226]

Question is whether this is predictable and it appears predictions vary a little.


If Cindy approaches Judd now, while he's not too happy with Jamie and while he's feeling vulnerable because of the shelter vomiting incident ... it's possible she could get him to jump back and re-up with BJ and Danni ( old Nakums) and IF you include Gary, it would give them a 5-4 advantage. This could also be accomplished with BJ approaching Judd and Danni approaching Cindy with the same deal. If that happened, I'm not sure if or how Rafe or Lydia could save themselves wthout immunity.

One flaw in that is that Gary is a bit of a wildcard now since he could opt to join either group of 4 ... but he probably realizes he can trust BJ/Danni more.

Boot order if Cindy and Judd make a move now and Gary sticks with BJ/Danni:

Jamie
Stephenie
Rafe
Lydia
Judd
Cindy

F3:

BJ, Danni, Gary

with

- Gary opting to take BJ because hee's a re-tread
or
- Danni opting to take BJ to F2 because he's an original tribe mate and a re-tread
or
Gary/Danni taking each other because they deserve it more because BJ's a re-tread.
or
BJ flipping an ancient coin beecause he knows he won't win because he's a re-tread.

Ok ... not sure if that's a prediction or a prayer.

[user name]

but he probably realizes he can trust BJ/Danni more.

After they booted all his friends?