Is the season now predictable?

I think BJ is going to pull off an IC win next time, and Gary finds the little idol. Since BJ is safe, Gary will use his little idol. In a "caught off guard" situation like that at TC, I think Cindy and Rafe will vote for Jamie over Danni. Neither of the two will have time to think with their heads, so they'll go with their gut. That would be five votes for Jamie and four for Danni. Whoever Gary, BJ and Danni are targeting (Jamie or Judd), they'd better let Rafe and Cindy in on it. However Gary, since he has the idol (I think), should push for Jamie or Judd to get booted regardless of any former Yaxha getting Immunity (or not getting it), because that way he can keep his little idol up his sleeve.

For me, with individual Immunity and a little idol floating around for possibly four more ejections, I can't predict anything... :shrug

I agree, there are too many factors still to come to make anything a solid bet. Sometimes things and moves that seem so obvious from an outside point of view are not even factors in the game. I will be watching and waiting for it all to unfold. Whenever I predict I am wrong. It's a curse.

I think Shady64's prediction is very logical. The only things that'll mess things up are the small immunity idol in the hands of Danni/Gary/BJ - and I don't think that'll really make that big of a difference UNLESS it's paired with an immunity win by one of the other underdogs. Also, a winning streak by any of these three could cause some recalculating.

Unfortunately, I think the main bones of Shady's predictions are going to hold up. :mmm BORING!

I love the introduction of the little immunity idol. It throws so much into the mix. They should have tried it seasons earlier. You know how paranoid everyone gets as the numbers dwindle, this will make them ultra paranoid. You could really mess up some peoples mind and composure by pretending you have it when you don't :)

I haven't been able to read this whole thread, but here's my predictions as to how the rest of the season will unfold:

Next episode, Bobby Jon will be voted out barring he does not win immunity or find the hidden idol. After that, I'm thinking Gary may be the target. Even though we were told in the last episode that the former Nakum's pecking order would be Brandon, Bobby Jon, then Danni. Gary is more of a physical threat than Danni, and perhaps they will notice that after his first IC win. That leaves Danni as the only former Yaxha member left, with the 6 Nakums.

At this point, I think that Lydia, Rafe, and Cindy will cut a deal with Danni. If they managed to stay with Steph, Judd, and Jamie, they'd be the next 3 voted out after they got rid of Danni. So by cutting a deal with Danni, they'd essentially be the final 4. Probably taking out Jamie, Steph, and Judd. (No idea with the order, but I think Jamie would be first.)

So then the final 4 would be Danni, Lydia, Rafe, and Cindy. I think after that it would depend on who wins the immunity challenge. I would think that if Danni didn't win the one at F4, Lydia, Rafe, and Cindy would get rid of her, seeing as she's played a good game and is strong. Then it'd depend on who wins the F3 IC... Lydia and Rafe would probably be pretty tight, so they would possibly take each other to the F2. Cindy would have a tough choice, seeing as neither Rafe or Lydia has really bonked heads with anyone yet or come across in a negative way. I think if Cindy were up against either of them, she wouldn't win.

As far as predictions go, it's clear that people can't seem to agree on how far certain contestants will go. This season could become quite predictable, but I have a feeling we'll have some power shifts thrown in as well as an unpredictable finish. We're probably not going to get a season like Pearl Islands, but hopefully it'll be almost as good. As I see it, the remainder of Guatemala will turn out like this:

Ep. 9
Gary is our red herring, as he begins to pop up as some type of challenge threat. He may find the immunity idol and add to the possibility of ending up a target, but, in the end, Bobby Jon will barely accomplish his "life-long dream" and end up as the first member of the jury.

Ep. 10
More or less, the pivotal episode of the season. With Danni and Gary aware that they are still outsiders, they really begin to scramble to pull something out of nothing. Jamie has the immunity idol, but then decides not to use it at tribal council, though everyone is aware he has it in his possession. The others recognize that Jamie's hubris is simply too much to handle, and he is blindsided at tribal counil, providing us with the colorful exit that Probst promised.

Ep. 11
Back to the old pecking order, Danni is sent home. Not much happens, though I'm sure we'll be seeing some dissension and a red herring here and there to make us believe that Steph or Gary gets the boot.

Ep. 12
It's time for another blindside, and Gary begins to convince people that Stephenie doesn't deserve to stick around. Cindy is quick to follow, and Lydia and Rafe decide to switch as well. In the end, Stephenie is kicked out of her throne, and it's time for a new type of power player to emerge.

Ep. 13
Judd pulls off an immunity win and saves himself from the boot. The other four are forced to scramble and turn on each other, and Gary avoids his own departure by turning attention on Cindy. The invisible woman is sent packing, and Seabiscuit's dreams are crushed.

Ep. 14
It's down to the final 4, and we've set up with our villian, our underdog, our favored pick to win, and the person who will actually end up with a million dollars. Who fits into each role? With Gary having made some major power plays, he has cemented himself as the frontrunner for a million. This comes back to bite him in the ass, though, and he's voted out by the other three. In the final immunity challenge, Rafe easily beats both Judd and Lydia, and must choose whether to take the villian or his alliance-partner to the end. If the underdog is in the final 2, she must win, so that means Rafe forgets his conscience and brings Judd with him as his final 2 partner, leaving Lydia in third place. In an easy jury vote, Judd only nets himself a couple votes and Rafe wins Survivor: Guatemala.

I think the variations in our predictions show that there are a number of ways this season could go down. I'm thinking, while we may have some dissapointing boots here and there, the whole of Guatemala won't be all that predictable. It comes down to who makes the power plays and when, and we can't know for certain how they will affect the game. The worst possible scenario is that the season goes down in much the same way that the Outback did, but I don't see that happening.

Cable, I'm curious about your prediction. Is it based on the editing and confession tallies so far or just how you see it going down in your gut?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Shady64

Is it based on the editing and confession tallies so far or just how you see it going down in your gut?

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Gut, really. I'm planning on doing a more in-depth analysis of the editing thus far and attempting to determine a more sophisticated boot order and prediction, but I haven't had the time to really sit down and do such an evaluation yet. This is generally the time I take a hard look at how the season will pan out, but things have kept me busy. My main point is that, while some boots will probably be painfully obvious, we should be in for a few twists and turns and an interesting final 4 or 5.

I like survivor, but in depth analysis? And the confessional tally as a way of predicting who is going to be booted?
Hmm.. maybe I am not taking this seriously enough!
I do enjoy the thought provoking posts.
I just hope that Jamie goes soon
Then Judd, then Stephanie.. I just don't want to hear from them any more!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Corine

I like survivor, but in depth analysis? And the confessional tally as a way of predicting who is going to be booted?
Hmm.. maybe I am not taking this seriously enough!
I do enjoy the thought provoking posts.
I just hope that Jamie goes soon
Then Judd, then Stephanie.. I just don't want to hear from them any more!

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I'm not good at interpreting the editing and confession tally but there are a few here that are good at it. What I like about that kind of analysis is it gives us a working blueprint of what will happen without it being a flat out spoiler. There is always that "X" factor that can't be predicted...someone freaking out, an injury, a quitter.

Palua was spoiled right down the line from almost the beginning. No fun. The analysis reminds me of a game of Clue-- you can rule out the usual suspects up to a certain point as the game progresses. Even though you have a good idea who might be to go each week, you never know for certain until that episode unfolds and possibly the unexpected event happens that we didn't see coming, changes it.