Survivor 11: Who will win?

[cable101]

The earlier you flip, the more jury members you piss off.

Exactly. Those complaining about Rafe, Lydia, and Cindy not turning things around need to realize that power shifts don't happen this early for a reason. Only in Marquesas was the majority alliance taken out starting with 9 remaining, and that was because the Rotu 4 seemed more solid than the average alliance (it turned out they really weren't). As user name mentioned, flipping early results in more bitter jury members, which is never good for business. Also, the more people that are still there when a power play occurs, the more chances there are that somebody will change things around in an entirely different direction. Looking at Rafe, why would he make a move when the Axis of Evil still has an oppurtunity to manipulate things and ruin his plans? It's much safer bet for him to change things around at 7 than at 9 because then Judd, Jamie, and Stephenie have fewer options to save themselves. Sometimes patience in critical, and I think Rafe and Cindy (who knows about Lydia?) realize that.

[lopevian]

Exactly. Those complaining about Rafe, Lydia, and Cindy not turning things around need to realize that power shifts don't happen this early for a reason.

I wouldn't call it complaining, just sharing a strategy based on an opinion. Cable, please "realize" that those who would like to see a power shift now have no less a handle on the game. All any of us needs to "realize" is what our opinions lead us to believe.

...the Rotu 4 seemed more solid than the average alliance (it turned out they really weren't).

They really weren't after their alliance fell apart.

It's much safer bet for him to change things around at 7 than at 9 because then Judd, Jamie, and Stephenie have fewer options to save themselves.

Actually, they're at eight...the "tie zone". Now is the time!


IMHO

[cable101]

Cable, please "realize" that those who would like to see a power shift now have no less a handle on the game. All any of us needs to "realize" is what our opinions lead us to believe.

I really get in trouble for the way I word things. Pleast just take anything I say as a presentation of my opinion on the matter, correct or not. If it seems like I'm questioning someone's understanding of strategy, I'm most likely not; I'm simply trying to get across my take on things in the most effective manner possible.

[user name]

If you want to flip at a tie, I'd go 6, but a tie's risky just because of the inherent problems if the vote ends up in a tie. Granted, one person usually falls to the other side just to prevent having their own head on the chopping block in the event of a tie. The only reason to flip at 8 is if you think you won't be able to flip at 7. In this case, I don't see anyone not being able to flip at 7. Gary and Danni need to flip someone to get past the next couple weeks, or at least convince them that Jamie needs to go before them. Other than those 3, everyone's as close to safe as can be, meaning Rafe, Cindy, and Lydia can merely continue to maintain the status quo. Of course, this all assumes they're even going to flip together. It may be easier for just two of them to flip, and even one is often even better. Axing Jamie first is easy to convince everyone to do, then Gary, Danni, plus two more makes a majority. Of course, those two don't necessarily have to come from Rafe, Cindy, or Lydia.