If D&T join Burton is it really smart?

[caychris]

First off I'd like to say I would hate to see Rupert booted this week but more important than that if he is to go this week Id like to see why he gets booted a bit more than we have been seeing.

Now back to the topic at hand from the promos we see B/T/D/L/J all agreeing to something but lets look at who would be best served by an alliance with Burton at this point.

Jon - yes you get rid of Rupert but you are stuck with Burton who in many ways is an even bigger IC threat than Rupe. You cant expect Burton to take you to the final 2 because of the outcast factor. You have to know that his only realistic choice is Lil.

Lil - we wont even bother with you your loyalties will be tested if you must chose between Rupert of Burton and can anyone of us honestly say which way you will land.

Daraha - While we dont see much of your viewpoint as a Morgan just because Rupert goes down the Pagonging will pick up where it left off.

Tijuana - Same thing goes for you as well dont think of Lil as a friend in this alliance either.

So basicly this is an alliance of convienence which only lasts as long as Burton holds immunity or Drake picks up the Pagonging stick again.

This last week we didnt see the smart thing from D&T in trying to take Rupert out and allowing Ryno and Burton to pick over the lead. Makes me wonder why. Im not sure either of these women have the skill or the foresight to make it 3 weeks from now.


If D&T were smart at all they would try to sew up Jon and Sandra as alliance partners for the boot following next. In fact all the players need to start looking further ahead than they apparently have been.

I think there might have been a bit more to the Rupert and Jon walk on the beach. They were discussing Burton after all. In the last couple of times we have seen Jon it has not been him bringing up the chance to boot Rupert. As annoying as Jon may be so far he has survived one failed coup and as the saying goes "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer" I think Jon is quite a bit tighter with Rupe now than we are led to believe.

While many spoilers predict a Rupert boot and it may be inevitable, Id like to think that if it happens its because it was a boot of opportunity rather than any grand alliance.

While many watchers of the show think Rupert is unstoppable in the final 2 and we have seen some of the players say this Im not so sure they all believe it. Ruperts ego and the animosity many of them feel towards him even now could work against him and I think some of the players know this.

Anyway just my thoughts on the subject.

[fluff]

It looked as though Sandra and Christa were proposing a female alliacne last week.
They would obviously have to bring Lill into that to have a numerical advantage, I would not want to pin my survivor hopes on her though.

T and D cannot guarantee that the Drakes will start cutting strong or annoying members of their own tribe at this point.
There might still be enough tribal loyalty to keep the Drake's together until the Morgan's have been booted.
I think Darrah and T have nothing to lose at this point really as I can't see either of them getting immunity.

[Zaius]

caychris, please in the future remember not to summarize or mention what most spoilers predict in a non *spoilers* marked thread. I avoid all spoilers threads, and to find spoilers summaries in others threads is just irritating. Thanks.

[catfishbarb]

It looked as though Sandra and Christa were proposing a female alliacne last week.
They would obviously have to bring Lill into that to have a numerical advantage, I would not want to pin my survivor hopes on her though.

T and D cannot guarantee that the Drakes will start cutting strong or annoying members of their own tribe at this point.
There might still be enough tribal loyalty to keep the Drake's together until the Morgan's have been booted.
I think Darrah and T have nothing to lose at this point really as I can't see either of them getting immunity.

Not if they got rid of Rupert or Burton first. If either of those two go, and they are the biggest threat at this time so one of them is likely, they don't need Lil.
I'm sure that Sandra and Christa want to get rid of Burton first. It will be interesting to see what happens if he wins immunity.

[Smith]

Not if they got rid of Rupert or Burton first. If either of those two go, and they are the biggest threat at this time so one of them is likely, they don't need Lil.
I'm sure that Sandra and Christa want to get rid of Burton first. It will be interesting to see what happens if he wins immunity.

I think this is key. If we see one alliance between Tijuana, Darrah, Jon, Burton and Lillian successfully targetting Rupert of the Rupert, Christa and Sandra alliance only to find out that there was an underlying Tijuana, Darrah, Christa and Sandra alliance then Burton or Jon become the next target even as they feel all safe and secure in their alliance.

Of course, in that case I hope Burton wins immunity for that tribal council. I might have to keep the tape of that tribal council.

Jeff: "I'll read the votes. Jon. Christa. Jon. Christa. Two votes Jon. Two votes Christa. Christa."
Shot of Jon in crossed V pose, big smile on his face...
Jeff: "Jon. Three votes Jon. Three votes Christa."
Shot of Jon, momentary puzzlement wheels beginning to turn ever so slowly.
Jeff: "The tenth person voted out is Jon. Bring me your torch."
Shot of Jon, pause, frame, frame, frame... you can pinpoint the exact moment when it hits him...
Jeff: "The tribe has spoken."
Jon leaves.
Jeff: "It's about time. What took you guys so long?"

[caychris]

sorry about spoilers. What do you consider spoiler. I probably could have rephrased that in a non spoiler manner.

[Zaius]

sorry about spoilers. What do you consider spoiler. I probably could have rephrased that in a non spoiler manner.

Things like "While many spoilers predict a Rupert boot"... The tone of your first paragraph gave it away too but I suppose that's borderline. Just stick a *spoilers* term next to your title next time and that would be great.
Thanks.

[Bill]

I think if Rupert goes this week, and I expect him to go as soon as he loses immunity, then it will be along the lines of what you are saying caychris.

I think there will be multiple mini alliances involved, and not a overall strategy beyond all of the remaining competitors agreeing they can't win unless Rupe walks the plank.

[caychris]

The question I have is does Burton think that he can win if Rupert goes because the minute he loses immunity he is the next to go.

[Fossil]

The question I have is does Burton think that he can win if Rupert goes because the minute he loses immunity he is the next to go.

I agree. Burton played poorly for his first boot, and is playing poorly now - well on his way to earning a second boot.

Burton didn't think it through. With Ryno gone, and if Rupert goes, there is just one player remaining that can dominate the physical IC's.

All the women would like an opportunity to complete on a "level playing field" in the IC's. Hello, Burton, that is sufficient common ground for a boot.

Ryno and Rupert protect from this.

Jon? LOL, he can't compete with some of the women in physical challenges. That will be fun to watch, if it occurs.