Survivor: Pirate Report (Day 15) - Jonnie Fairplay, Master of His Own Puppet

[fluff]

More wonderful analysis Bill.
I'm loving these pirate reports.

I tihnk I pretty much agree with everything you say, and found your point about momentum most interesting.
The Morgan's are clearly on an upswing at the moment and are looking the more coherent unit even if they aren't technically the most competant.

[TheFlying]

I don't agree with saying Michelle had no strategy. She did.

She wanted to fly UTR and not give anyone a reason to boot her, and when the merge came, she was going to side with the Morgans if they had enough to pick off the drake members.

[fluff]

I think Michelle was anything but UTR.
That might have been her strategy going in, but her alliance with Burton and Shawn was very visible, not only to the viewers, but more importantly to her tribemates.
Once Shawn jumped ship, she was standing alone.
Her tribemates gave her a shot at saving herself through their IC plan. It might not have worked even if Michelle had played her part, the fact that she didn't meant she got a fresh lick of paint on the tareget on her back.

[Paulie]

Outstanding analysis, as always, Bill. I really love reading your reports.

I, too, thought Rupert's outburst was a mistake in Tribal Council. I also find that I can't fully reason out in my head how his behavior is affecting his standing in the game. He bails on the Reward and tells Morgan, "I love you guys, but I gotta go home." That sentence could alienate both tribes, but it could also bond him to both tribes. His comment in TC is of a similar nature. He might resonate with some of the quieter members of the tribe (Trish, perhaps?) even as he makes others uncomfortable. His is not a strategy we've seen very often, maybe not since Michael of S2, who was fanatic about remaining in the spotlight. I'm interested to see how Rupert does, and I hope he goes far, but I think he's too emotional, which means he'll probably go too far.

Anyway, great job, Bill. Thanks for the opportunity to really chew over the game in my head.

[gaebolga]

Call me overly generous (or maybe paranoid), but I find it hard to believe that anyone is as completely inept as Osten appears to be. So....

I think Osten is faking it.

He's cut, and there's no way to hide that, and anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows that the strong get gone in Survivor at the merge. I think Osten might be playing useless so that his rather obvious muscles aren't seen as an asset.

Ditto on his "drowning." Twenty bucks says he busts out with a wicked freestyle crawl when the chips are truly down....

Either that, or he's a waste of DNA.

[Leo]

If he is acting, it's one hell of an act. All credit to him if that actually is the case - for being able to keep it up for so long. I doubt thats the case, though.

[Roz_City]

I think Michelle was anything but UTR.
That might have been her strategy going in, but her alliance with Burton and Shawn was very visible, not only to the viewers, but more importantly to her tribemates.
Once Shawn jumped ship, she was standing alone.
Her tribemates gave her a shot at saving herself through their IC plan. It might not have worked even if Michelle had played her part, the fact that she didn't meant she got a fresh lick of paint on the tareget on her back.

Fluff, I agree with you, but even if she did come through at the IC, and convinced Morgan she could'nt do the food challenge twice, she still would have been the next one gone at their next TC.

[JonasGrumby]

Fluff, I agree with you, but even if she did come through at the IC, and convinced Morgan she could'nt do the food challenge twice, she still would have been the next one gone at their next TC.

That's all speculation. Why give up when you can do something about it. If I were Michelle, i'd do what I was told even if I knew that I may be the next one to go and for pete's sake, this is the IMMUNITY challenge, that means her own fate was in her own hands so if they picked her, then she can save herself for not going to the TC at all. She's a dummy so she derserved the boot. She even beat Ryan in downing that concoction when she could have saved that gulping talent of hers for last. Even if she lost the challenge, at least she could make it harder for the group to decide if it was hers or Shawn's turn. Shawn has irritated more people than she did so it is also safe to say that he could have been gone instead.

[Bill]

That's all speculation. Why give up when you can do something about it. If I were Michelle, i'd do what I was told even if I knew that I may be the next one to go and for pete's sake, this is the IMMUNITY challenge, that means her own fate was in her own hands so if they picked her, then she can save herself for not going to the TC at all. She's a dummy so she derserved the boot. She even beat Ryan in downing that concoction when she could have saved that gulping talent of hers for last. Even if she lost the challenge, at least she could make it harder for the group to decide if it was hers or Shawn's turn. Shawn has irritated more people than she did so it is also safe to say that he could have been gone instead.

Well, clearly Michelle should have went along with the plan, and made a big mistake not doing so. It would have indeed bought her time. However, she was still the outsider, no matter when the vote took place, and still the leading candidate.

Shawn may be annoying, but he wasn't voted out last night either, so apparently that annoying quality is not sufficient to lead to his ouster, and if they booted Trish over Shawn, there is no doubt in my mind that Michelle would be next under any scenario, even if she had finished the challenge.

[veejer]

That's all speculation. Why give up when you can do something about it. If I were Michelle, i'd do what I was told even if I knew that I may be the next one to go and for pete's sake, this is the IMMUNITY challenge, that means her own fate was in her own hands so if they picked her, then she can save herself for not going to the TC at all. She's a dummy so she derserved the boot. She even beat Ryan in downing that concoction when she could have saved that gulping talent of hers for last. Even if she lost the challenge, at least she could make it harder for the group to decide if it was hers or Shawn's turn. Shawn has irritated more people than she did so it is also safe to say that he could have been gone instead.

Michelle said on the Early Show that when faced with her "smoothie" that it was so chunky, that she figured that if she fake-gagged, she would really start gagging. HOWEVER, she did a pretty good job of fussing BEFORE she and Rhino started drinking. Because it wasn't a race between them, she could have taken a few fake sips and made a really big fuss before downing it. Then Morgan might have picked her for the final show down because she took so LONG to drink it.

In this game, you're not gone until your flame is extinquished. Look at Kathy from S4:Marqueses. If the other tribe hadn't gone to TC the first three times, she would have been gone. And then the switch saved her. But she learned and grew with the game and ended up third, although she should have won.

NEVER GIVE UP!!!